(AP Photo/Steve Helber)
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Southern Hills Country Club
Par 71 - 7,481 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
The second major of the season is here as the best players in the world return to Southern Hills Country Club for the 2022 PGA Championship. The course opened back in 1936 and has played host to many big events from Women's and Men's Amateur Championships, to US Opens, Tour Championship, and of course the PGA Championship which was last played here in 2007 when Tiger Woods took home the Wanamaker Trophy.
This year's PGA Championship will play a bit different than in 2007 as the course has been renovated by Gil Hanse to both bring back some of the original design as well as modernize the course for today's game. The first thing golfers will notice is the widening of the fairways 10-15 feet on average which should lead to a lot more drivers off the tee which was not the case back in 2007 when we saw a ton of "less than driver" strategies. You still won't want to get too far offline, however, as the rough will be gnarly and will make hitting the greens very, very difficult. Hitting greens in regulation will already have its challenges as one of the other big changes to the course involves the greens which once funneled balls into the middle. Those greens, for the most part, were shaved down around the edges which will now funnel balls off the green.
From a stat model perspective, it will take an elite or near-elite all-around game to get it done this week but there are a few key stats that are elevated in my model this week. Let's take a look at a them before we get into some core plays.
Strokes Gained: Approach
With the changes in widening the fairways and also making the greens more difficult, the emphasis on approach shots goes way up for this event. I will not only be looking at overall SG: Approach data in the short and long term but more specifically Proximity from the 175-200 and 200+ yard ranges. Flipping the bowl on the greens(shaving edges to run off rather than collect on the green) will also make holding the greens very difficult so if you want to dig a little deeper, look for players with high apex heights.
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Hitting the greens in majors is always very difficult, as it should be, and that always boosts the importance of scrambling as a par, and sometimes even a bogey can feel like a huge win and can gain you strokes on the field. The bunkers are another aspect of the course that was overhauled and should be a big factor this week so you can also fit in some sand save % into your model, as well.
In terms of lineup construction, major championships present us with so many options with softer pricing but generally you are looking to build stars and scrubs and fit as many top players as possible. With that said, let's dig in!
Scottie Scheffler
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)
FanDuel ($12,000)
Scheffler is once again the most expensive golfer in the field at a major but this time he may have a few more believers after winning the Masters back in April. It was his fourth win of this breakout season and now he returns to the course he claims is his favorite where he shot a 64 in a practice round earlier in the week. Whether you want to believe the narratives or not, Scheff has a complete game(9th in SG: T2G last 24 rounds) that is needed at the majors and is a core play for me in all formats.
Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($11,800)
At $10K on DraftKings as the fifth most expensive golfer in the field, Rory checks all the boxes this week as he looks for his third PGA Championship and fifth major. Form is the first thing that stands out as he has made six of seven cuts on the season with a win at the CJ Cup and comes in with back-to-back Top 5's at the Wells Fargo and the Masters. Strokes Gained: Apporach and Around the Green are keys for me this week and at the Wells Fargo, Rory posted his best approach results since the beginning of the 2021 playoffs. He also comes in with some terrific form in terms of his scrambling gaining strokes around the green in nine of his last 10 events. All things considered, I will have a ton of Rory this week and he is in play in all formats.
Talor Gooch
World Golf Ranking (#35)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,500)
This is a bit of a home game for Gooch who grew up about 100 miles from Southern Hills but that narrative is far from the reason he makes the article this week. For starters, he has progressively gotten better with experience in major championships with a T44 at the 2021 PGA Championship, T33 at the OPEN, and a career-best T14 at the Masters earlier this season. He has nowhere near the form he showed in the fall season but that should help keep the ownership down and what he has lacked in the approach game lately, he has made for with his elite scrambling as he ranks 3rd in this field in SG: Around the Green on the sheet. He is in play on both sites but his best value comes on DraftKings in the mid $7K range.
Aaron Wise
World Golf Ranking (#91)
Vegas Odds (150/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($8,500)
I mentioned a stars and scrubs build being favored and that is due to the number of top players in the field and the softer pricing making the scrub range much better than a normal event. Aaron Wise is, by no means, a scrub but comes very cheap this week and checks all the boxes for me in my models. He finished T17 in last year's PGA Championship and comes in with solid form this year having made five of his last six cuts going back to the start of March led by a near-elite tee to green game(ranked 10th in this field SG: T2G last 24 rounds). Long iron play is something I am looking at closely this week and he fits the mold there as well ranking 30th and 12th from 175-200 and 200+ yards. Wise is one of my favorite value plays in all formats this week.
Anirban Lahiri
World Golf Ranking (#72)
Vegas Odds (250/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
FanDuel ($8,400)
It has been three years since Lahiri qualified for the PGA Championship when he missed the cut but comes in this time around with some terrific form. He is coming off a T6 at the Wells Fargo and has made the cut in six straight events with two top 10's and four Top 15 finishes. That form has been led by an excellent all-around game as he has gained 4+ strokes tee to green and 2+ strokes putting in four of his last five events. Looking at the long term stats on the sheet, he also ranks 27th in SG: Around the Green which will be huge this week.
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