DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/14/22 - Main Slate

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Pitchers

Chris Bassitt FD 10100 DK 10300
Opponent - SEA (George Kirby) Park - SEA
FD - 39.75 DK - 21.86

Bassitt is sitting at a -167 home favorite against the Mariners on Saturday, some of the best win odds on the slate. He’s having an excellent season, striking out more than a batter per inning with an ERA in the low 2’s. The xFIP is trailing by about a run, so there could be some regression in his future. But Seattle is a below-average offense on the season and don’t get you all that worried. There aren’t a lot of stud arms on this slate, but there are some good ones. At this point, Bassitt sits a bit above the rest and has been going about six innings per start on the season.

Zac Gallen FD 9900 DK 9800
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 36.59 DK - 19.2

Think Gallen will be a popular play on this slate, and it looks like you can easily pair him and Bassitt together on DraftKings. Gallen brings in a 0.95 ERA to this game, though I’d caution you about getting overexcited about that kind of elite number seeing as how the 3.66 xFIP is almost three runs behind it. Regardless, he’s facing a Cubs team that sits 20th in team wOBA this season and strikes at a 24% clip, 7th most in the league. This is a good spot and Chicago has a low run line.

Catcher/First Base

Salvador Perez FD 3200 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.79 DK - 9.65

Carlos Santana FD 3000 DK 2400
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.36

Get ready for a lot of guys from this game in Coors to show up on the picks list for Saturday. There just really isn’t any way around it. It’s looking like these two will hit three and four against the righty Marquez and these two teams are coming off putting up a combined 24 runs on Friday evening. Perez has five home runs on the season, though almost nothing else with an OPS sitting in the low 600s. His BABIP, hard contact rate, and Hr/FB rates are all down this season, though Coors is just the kind of place to have some of those start turning around.

And then there is Santana who still is among the most patient hitters in the game, walking 19% of the time compared to just an 11% K rate. So you like that. But taking walks is about all he’s going with a .242 Slugging % that’s about 70 points below the OBP. You don’t see that every day. He’s coming so cheap on DraftKings that I think you just have to take the risk as long as he’s hitting cleanup in this hitter’s park.

Strongly consider C.J. Cron (FD $4100 DK $5100)

Second Base

Brendan Rodgers FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 11.45 DK - 8.79

Again, we are stacking Coors almost across the board on this main slate as long as the money works. Rodgers hits a little lower in the lineup than I often like for cash games, but he’s priced right and the run expectation is just so high for this game. Right now the Rockies are sitting at a 6.0 implied run line, easily the highest of the day. Rodgers had a monster night on Friday, though he’s going to need a lot more of those to pull his OPS out of the basement. I think he will because the hard contact rate is still solid with the BABIP and HR/FB down. That’s a great sign that more power could be coming and we are getting him on the cheap.

Marcus Semien FD 2500 DK 4300
Opponent - BOS (Rich Hill) Park - BOS
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.15

I prefer stacking Coors whenever possible on this slate, but there will be times when you have to get away from that game. Semien should be in the leadoff slot against the lefty Rich Hill on Saturday and man has the Ranger’s big off-season signing been terrible. He has an OPS in the 400s (you read that correctly) with no home runs after he hit 45 last season. But for his career, he’s been much better against lefties with a .201 ISO and .339 wOBA. The FanDuel price is just daring you now considering the historical numbers for this guy, but there’s no doubt this season has been bad.

Shortstop

Bobby Witt Jr. FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.67

I think Witt will hit leadoff against the righty German Marquez and will be looking to get what was supposed to be a heralded rookie campaign on the right track. He’s struggled out of the gate for sure with a mid-500s OPS and just one home run. It’s been rough though he obviously projects to be much, much better than this going forward. He does have five stolen bases on the season which points to the speed on the base paths being there, but he needs to get on base. Considering the performance this season, the price is probably a little high, but this is Coors we are talking about.

Amed Rosario FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - MIN
FD - 9.97 DK - 7.81

I much prefer Witt, but the Guardians are in a good spot against the lefty Smeltzer and come in with an implied run line that’s pushing towards 5.0 on the day. Amed Rosario could find himself hitting fifth for Cleveland and for his career has been much better against lefty arms. He has an excellent .809 OPS and .345 wOBA in that split for his career and is coming super cheap on FanDuel especially. I know he’s struggled this season, but we are still early and this is a matchup that favors his strengths.

Third Base

Ryan McMahon FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 12.82 DK - 9.7

Carlos Hernandez could be in for a rough one here on Saturday. He’s coming into the game having struck out just 10 batters in his 22 innings this season, something that can be a major, major problem when entering a start in Coors. If you are going to allow a lot of contact, then you are probably in big trouble. McMahon’s biggest issue this season has been the K, going down on strikes 31% of the time. But that’s greatly mitigated with the matchup and you have to love the spot for a dude coming off a 23 home run season last time out.

José Ramírez FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - MIN
FD - 14.66 DK - 11.08

He’s going to cost more, but he’s also a much better hitter. And I mean, much, much better. Jose Ramirez is about as elite as it gets, this season rocking a .987 OPS thanks to seven home runs and a 14% walk rate that’s well above the 8% strikeout rate. You really don’t get any better than that. It’s remarkable. Ramirez is pretty platoon neutral for his career, and Smeltzer has been below average for his first 70 major league innings.

Outfield

Connor Joe FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 12.87 DK - 9.73

Charlie Blackmon FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.78

Daulton Varsho FD 2900 DK 5000
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.69

For cash games, I’m going to want to stack these two guys at the top of the order if that’s how the Rockies choose to roll things out. They are the two highest projected outfielders on the entire slate and for good reason. The runline in Denver is just going to be higher because of the thin air and that’s the case on Saturday. Joe has four home runs on the season with an xFIP in the mid-800s. He’s tough to put down on strikes and there’s a reason the price is up there. But it’s worth it.

And then there’s Blackmon who’s gotten a bit unlucky this season though there could be other issues at hand. He’s got a lower BABIP, but that’s due in part to him putting the ball on the ground 47% of the time. That’s not great if you are looking for the power upside in the bat. But again, Carlos Hernandez is pretty garbage so I don’t think we are taking all that big of a risk here.

Andrew Benintendi FD 2900 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.88

He’s coming way to cheap on FanDuel if he’s hitting second in the lineup in Coors Field on Saturday. He doesn’t have huge power, but he can show flashes. And he’s been very tough to put down on strikes this season, going down only 13% of the time and putting the ball in play around 80% of the time. This is the perfect batted ball profile for playing in the Mile High air.

Consider Franmil Reyes (FD $2700 DK $3300) coming very cheap on DraftKings facing off against the lefty Smeltzer.

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