Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, July 24, 2019, in Houston. (AP Photo/Michael Wyke)
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Opponent - MIN (Joe Ryan) Park - MIN
FD - 41.41 DK - 23.04
Verlander hasn’t quite dialed up the K stuff this season, sitting at 8.5 K’s per nine through his first 32 innings. But he’s going longer into games than most pitchers at this point and is facing a Twins team that goes down on strikes at a well-above-average rate so far this season. Minnesota’s 3.1 implied run line is among the lowest on the slate and I don’t think Verlander is quite priced for what his floor is in this matchup. The K’s got dinged last game against Seattle, but he should be in line for more than a punch out an inning.
Opponent - CIN (Hunter Greene) Park - CIN
FD - 39.05 DK - 21.34
The Reds have shown some signs of life lately, getting out of the basement on offense thanks to some decent games in the last week or so. But I’m not totally buying the long-term viability of this squad and think Peralta is in a tremendous spot. He’s not quite the right price because he’s been unlucky on the ERA side of things. But his 3.05 xFIP is two runs behind it and he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine on the season. And at a -195 road favorite, he’s got some of the best win odds on the day.
Lucas Giolito (FD $10300 DK $9700) is in a good spot against the Guardians today as money line favorite with a very low implied total.
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 10.52 DK - 7.88
Miller should be in the leadoff slot for the Rangers on Tuesday when they face off against the righty Brad Keller. Don’t let the latter’s ERA fool you, he’s much more of an average pitcher who, though he keeps the ball on the ground, doesn’t generate anything in the way of strikeouts. Miller’s biggest issue is the swing and miss, something that’s greatly mitigated in this matchup. He’s coming off of a 20 home run season and is much better against righties for his career with a .773 OPS and 111 wRC+ in that split. Oh, and he’s coming very cheap on both sites which works perfectly as long as he’s in that top spot.
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.01 If we are trying to save some money in order to fit the more expensive pitchers, then oddly first base might just be the place to do it. Cooper should be hitting third for the Marlins against the lefty Madison Bumgarner and is coming near the minimums on both sites. He isn’t necessarily better against lefties for his career, but he’s shown flashes of power and the batting lineup order is almost too good to pass up for these prices.
Opponent - LAA (Reid Detmers) Park - LAA
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.5
Coming off of a 39 home run season, there were big expectations for Lowe this season. So far, he hasn’t lived up to that particular form of hype. Sure, he has five long balls in 122 plate appearances, but that is well off of last season’s pace. The OPS is bottoming out, but the price is dipping as well. K’s are something of a concern for him, but that’s less of an issue against Detmers who’s failed to bring much swing-and-miss stuff to the major league level.
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.42
I like grabbing the top of this Texas order against Keller and think they could be somewhat popular plays on this slate. It’s been an enormous struggle for Semien to start this season after coming over as one of the Rangers’ big offseason acquisitions. And it’s for sure led to the price dropping. Some of it is bad luck related, but there are hard contact issues as well. I’m still buying on the historical output from this dude, but I can understand why you’d be hesitant.
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.42
Not going to mind stacking some Rangers on this slate especially considering the matchup. No team going on the main slate on Tuesday has an overwhelming implied run line, though the Rangers sitting in the mid-4’s doesn’t look all that bad. Seager is struggling out of the gate this season with a .644 OPS though the BABIP is about 100 points off of his career average and the Hr/FB rate is down as well. I think he starts to pick it up and we are getting him at something of a discount in the middle of this order.
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.76
The 15% hard contact rate is definitely a concern to start the season especially since he was coming off a career-high in home runs last season with 24. But for his career, Crawford is better against righty arms and the Giants, even in a pitcher’s park at home, are still in a good spot against Senzatela who is as below-average as it gets.
Opponent - CHC (Wade Miley) Park - CHC
FD - 12.51 DK - 9.49
Machado is having an amazing season on every level. He already has seven home runs and six stolen bases, good for about as good a fantasy performance as you’ll see so far. The 1.082 OPS is among the best in the league and on Tuesday he’ll get to face off against Wade Miley in the better side of his split. Machado has been much better against lefties for his career with a .365 wOBA and 131 wR+C. He’s expensive, but this is just the kind of pay up you are looking for.
After Machado, it’s somewhat slim pickings at 3B. Brad Miller qualifies here on DraftKings which definitely helps some. Josh Donaldson (FD $3200 DK $4500) is on the better side of his split against the lefty, but he’s struggled this season.
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.34
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 11.43 DK - 8.6
Like we said with Crawford, I do like putting some Giants into lineups on Tuesday. These two guys should be hitting one and three in the lineup against the right Senzatela who has struck out just seven batters in 24 innings so far this season. And he wasn’t good on this number for his career anyway. Yastrzemski is tough to put down on strikes, going down swinging only 14% of the time this season and he’s sporting an OPS in the mid-700s. I like him setting the table on Tuesday and the plate appearance expectation is solid considering the lower prices.
And then there is Pederson who already has six home runs on the season with a .551 slugging percentage to boot. Knowing that the ball is going to be in play considering the matchup makes it enticing to run him on the FanDuel price considering he should hit third in the order. The power might be a bit smoke and mirrors, but I like the matchup regardless.
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.58
Canha should hit second for the Mets when they face the lefty Corbin on Tuesday. The latter isn’t as bad as the 7.16 ERA would suggest, but he isn’t good either and has been walking a ton of batters so far this season. Meanwhile, Canha is slightly better against righty pitchers in the reverse platoon, but does have a higher career ISO against lefties. Plus, he’s coming pretty cheap in a good matchup if he’s going to hit second.
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