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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 5/10/22
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Point Guard / Shooting Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $11200 DK - $11400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 60.08 DK - 64.22
Jalen Brunson FD - $6700 DK - $6400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 35.03 DK - 36.07
We said it before, but for the Mavericks to win these two will have to, in many ways, share the load on offense in such a way that the Suns can’t totally shut Luka down. That’s basically what’s happened over the last two games, both wins for Dallas. Brunson has averaged 23 points, four assists, and four rebounds in that stretch and it’s been critical for keeping the Suns on their toes. I suspect the usage sticks in this range going forward.
And of course, there’s Luka who we already know is among the best ever to do it on the fantasy end. He’s averaging a sick 33 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists for this series and has been every bit the superstar. There aren’t many more cases to be made for this guy that hasn’t already happened. It’s pretty easy to play this guy and just sacrifice salary on the other end of the spectrum. It’s the nature of these playoff slates.
Max Strus FD - $4100 DK - $5000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.49 DK - 26.83M
Look, with these playoff slates we need to just try to roster minutes on the cheaper side and not worry all that much about the results. The latter part is because the whole point is getting the superstars. That’s the whole point. Strus and his 30+ minutes for the Heat are the reason for that and we are basically just needing him to knock down the three-point looks that he’s going to get in this offense. The FanDuel price is a pretty easy play at this point all things considered.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler FD - $10800 DK - $9500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.68 DK - 48.76
He’s had a solid series and the minutes are likely to stick in the 40s from here on out considering he’s Miami’s most important player. He’s coming off scoring 40 points in Game 4 and is averaging 28 points, seven rebounds, and six assists for the series as a whole. The 76ers don’t have a good matchup for him and the 20+ shots over the last two games is an encouraging sign for the usage as well even if both of those were losses.
James Harden FD - $9400 DK - $8900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 51.9 DK - 55.21
Are we willing to believe last game is the real James Harden? I don’t think there’s enough evidence for that but it was at least encouraging that he went out there and finally put a stamp on it. The 76ers are going to need every bit of it if Philly wants to get through this series and even think about making the Finals. He was excellent in Game 4, going 8-18 from the field and 6-10 from three. He finished with 31 points, his most since the end of March and easily the most for him in the playoffs. The price hasn’t adjusted if this is going to be the new normal and after last game he’s likely to be one of the higher-owned plays.
Dorian Finney-Smith FD - $5800 DK - $5900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.29 DK - 29.94
Is he always going to take the third-most shots on the team? No. Is he always going to shoot 75% (8-12) from three? Of course not. But the minutes should continue to sit in the 40s as long as the Mavericks are going to compete in this series and he’s become integral to what they are trying to do on both ends of the court. He’s averaging 14 points and five rebounds for this series, but the variance is on the three-point shooting volume and he’s taken double-digit attempts from beyond the arc over the last two.
Power Forward/ Center
Bam Adebayo FD - $8200 DK - $7200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.27 DK - 41.5
He’s only playing about 33 minutes a game in this series and that’s likely going to need to increase for the Heat to take out Joel Embiid and the 76ers. On a per-minute basis, this series has been mostly fine for Bam who’s averaging 20 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and 1.6 blocks+steals. The rebounds are going to be an issue as long as Embiid is on the court and there’s always the risk of foul trouble. But I think he’s set to see something of a minutes bump over these last three games (if possible) and that should have him looking like an even better play.
Maxi Kleber FD - $4500 DK - $5100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 23 DK - 22.96
If the plan is for him to play 33+ minutes going forward in this series then these prices are too low. He’s not starting, but at this point, that doesn’t really matter all that much for what we need out of him. Some of the stats can come and go like the assists and defensive stuff, but you are buying him on the minutes as a safety measure. If he’s playing this much then on these slates it’s basically a must-roster and you live with the results. I think the prevailing wisdom is that he’s a play here and especially on FanDuel will be close to the chalk.
