New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) works against the Atlanta Braves during a baseball game Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
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Editor’s Note: Some of these plays will be the same as yesterday’s because of the sheer number of postponements that went down in baseball on Friday.
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - NYY
FD - 40.66 DK - 23.22
Cole has the best win odds on the day, sitting at -212 at home against the Rangers. He hasn’t been quite as lights out as in other years though he’s still striking out more than 10 batters per nine. But the xFIP is up some and so are the walks. I don’t think there are crazy reasons for concern here, and Vegas doesn’t seem all that worried about it, but it at least warrants mentioning. Cole isn’t going to crush you on the price for either site and I expect he’ll be one of the more popular plays here.
Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - PHI
FD - 37.52 DK - 21.16 It’s not a necessity, but I think we are going to want to go double expensive with our arms on this slate considering there are some real aces taking the mound on Friday. Scherzer has been electric once again this season, striking out more than 12 batters per nine and rocking a 2.61 xFIP. He’s one of the reasons the Mets have been so good this year and he comes in as a -140 road favorite against the Phillies with a 7 over/under. It’s not the best matchup on the slate, but Scherzer is arguably the best pitcher overall so it makes it a bit easier to stomach.
Logan Webb (FD $9200 DK $9600) is interesting here. He’s a -149 home favorite against the Cardinals and gets to go in one of the best parks for pitchers.
Sonny Gray (FD $8900 DK $7700) is a big home favorite against the lowly A’s and though he’s struggled this season is almost too good a bargain on DK to pass up.
Opponent - CHC (Drew Smyly) Park - CHC
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.27
We’re going to have some Dodgers on this list today, especially for the first leg of the doubleheader against the Cubs. Muncy is having a weird season in that he’s walking at an elite rate (19%) yet only has a .634 OPS. That’s because other than the free passes and the three home runs, he’s done almost nothing else. The .154 BABIP is terrible. But this is a guy who’s a reverse platoon dude, better against lefties for his career in terms of OPS and wOBA. I do think we are still buying at a discount.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - ARI
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.41
If we are trying to go a bit cheaper in order to fit in some of the bigger arms on this slate then Walker is an ideal option. He’s got six home runs out of the gate this season and is facing off against the lefty Freeland. He’s been slightly better against righties for his career, but has a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate against lefties. I like the D-Backs against a low-K, very average lefty in Freeland on this slate.
Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.3
Polanco put up a monster season in 2021 with 33 home runs and an .826 OPS. The power could have been a total outlier for sure considering he hadn’t really done anything close to that in the past. There’s some chance it’s repeatable, though unlikely. That being said, he’s still hitting near the top of the order for the Twins and is coming at a good price on both sites against the righty Kaprielian. This is the much better side of Polanco’s split and he’s about 80 OPS points and 30 wOBA points better in this platoon.
Opponent - DET (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - DET
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.86
Altuve was struggling to start the season but we’ve been preaching patience with this guy and it’s been paying off in the short-term with a couple of home runs while safely hitting in the seven of the last eight games. He’s been excellent against lefties for his career with an .879 OPS and .376 wOBA. Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t quite panned out for the Tigers so far this season, striking less than a batter an inning with a 3.94 xFIP.
Opponent - CHC (Drew Smyly) Park - CHC
FD - 14.06 DK - 10.83
Turner hasn’t gotten the power going yet this season with only one home run so far, but he already has four stolen bases which helps him immensely on the fantasy side. The OPS is below 700 though some of that can be attributed to a lower BABIP and Hr/FB rate. He has a .878 OPS and .373 wOBA for his career against lefties, easily the better side of his platoon. I really like the FanDuel price early when he squares off against Drew Smyly.
Opponent - STL (Steven Matz) Park - STL
FD - 6.67 DK - 5.2
If you are looking for a cheap, punt-type option to fit in some bigger arms or a couple of other bats then Dubon is interesting here. He should be hitting in the second spot for the Giants when they are facing off against the lefty Matz. Dubon has shown bits of power and speed during his time in the majors with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases through 500 plate appearances. And he’s been way, way better against lefties in that time with a .782 OPS and 110 wRC+ in that split. Those are well above average which is great news considering he’s coming at rock-bottom prices on both sites.
Opponent - CHC (Drew Smyly) Park - CHC
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.23
Turner is off to a very rough start this season with the OPS in the 400s (yikes) and only one home run to speak of through his first 89 plate appearances. There are some signs of concern with the hard contact rate way down, but it’s still early and I think we can buy on the price dip as long as the Dodgers are keeping him in the middle of the lineup. He walks more and has a better ISO for his career when facing lefties as he will against Smyly in the first game on Saturday.
Opponent - DET (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - DET
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.25
He’s still coming at a bargain on FanDuel and seems to be rounding back into form this season with an OPS pushing .800 and four home runs already. He still walks (15%) as much as he strikes out (15%) and has crushed lefties for his career with a .967 OPS, .403 wOBA, and 160 wRC+ in that split. That’s about as good as you’ll see especially considering the sample size.
Opponent - CHC (Drew Smyly) Park - CHC
FD - 14.61 DK - 11
Betts hasn’t gotten to quite the same fantasy heights he’s reached in his MVP season, but he’s still worth these prices in the right matchup. For the first game of the doubleheader, facing off against the lefty Smyly, Betts is in a good spot. He’s still tough to put down on strikes (16%) and walks 13% of the time. He’s platoon neutral for his career, but has been excellent from both sides of the plate. I do like stacking the Dodgers early on Saturday.
Opponent - CIN (Connor Overton) Park - CIN
FD - 11.54 DK - 8.79
Opponent - CIN (Connor Overton) Park - CIN
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.68
The Pirates are playing a double-header in the second-best power park in the majors with Great American Ballpark really letting it fly. Reynolds is coming off of a breakout 24 home run season last time out and got the OPS well into the .900s. He hasn’t started the same way this time out, striking out a bit more and putting the ball on the ground at a higher rate. But I like this matchup against Overton who doesn’t have overwhelming K stuff.
And then there is Gamel who should be in the leadoff slot when facing the righty on Saturday. He’s been decent so far this season with a 12% walk rate, a .765 OPS, and a couple of stolen bases. If he’s going to hit in the top spot then the plate appearance expectation is solid considering the salaries on both sites.
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