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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/6/22
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Pitchers
Gerrit Cole FD 10000 DK 9700
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 48.38 DK - 27.56
Cole has the best win odds on the day, sitting at -212 at home against the Rangers. He hasn’t been quite as lights out as in other years though he’s still striking out more than 10 batters per nine. But the xFIP is up some and so are the walks. I don’t think there are crazy reasons for concern here, and Vegas doesn’t seem all that worried about it, but it at least warrants mentioning. Cole isn’t going to crush you on the price for either site and I expect he’ll be one of the more popular plays here.
Max Scherzer FD 10800 DK 10500
Opponent - PHI (Kyle Gibson) Park - PHI
FD - 41.88 DK - 23.57
It’s not a necessity, but I think we are going to want to go double expensive with our arms on this slate considering there are some real aces taking the mound on Friday. Scherzer has been electric once again this season, striking out more than 12 batters per nine and rocking a 2.61 xFIP. He’s one of the reasons the Mets have been so good this year and he comes in as a -140 road favorite against the Phillies with a 7 over/under. It’s not the best matchup on the slate, but Scherzer is arguably the best pitcher overall so it makes it a bit easier to stomach.
Catcher/First Base
Christian Walker FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.69
We don’t usually go super cheap at first base, but we have a couple of expensive arms in great spots today so savings with the hitters is going to take precedence. Walker already has six home runs on the season and is on the way to the best power numbers of his career. He’s also walking 10% of the time and getting by despite the .133 BABIP being about as bad as it gets. I think some positive regression in that department and we are buying way low on this guy.
Carson Kelly FD 2200 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.18
To fit a couple of the expensive pitchers into lineups on DraftKings (or one on FanDuel) we are going to need to try and find savings where it comes. The Diamondbacks are coming cheap up and down the lineup and have one of the higher implied run lines against Chad Kuhl. Kelly is cheap for a reason: he’s been dreadful this season. I don’t even want to post the numbers because they’d make you throw a computer or phone across the room. But it’s still early in the season and he’s only 60 plate appearances in. This guy has a mid-700s OPS last season with a .343 OBP. I think there’s value here.
Second Base
José Altuve FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.54
Altuve has really struggled to start the season and it’s led to the price dropping below $3K on FanDuel while sitting in the mid-$4K range over the short term on DraftKings. His OPS is in the low .600s for a couple of reasons. The 12% hard contact rate is a bit alarming and it’s meant a .188 BABIP. Both of those numbers are driving down his production in a big way. I am a bit concerned there’s an injury at play because of the hard-hit numbers, but I’m also having trouble fading him at these prices, leading off with the Astros sporting one of the best implied run lines of the day.
Trevor Story FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - CHW (Vince Velasquez) Park - CHW
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.74
For whatever reason, Trevor Story is hitting leadoff for the Boston Red Sox and that’s going to make him a value on this slate. He’s coming at okay prices on both sites (a bit pricey on DraftKings) but considering they have one of the higher implied run lines, the guy with the best plate appearance expectation can be a value. He hasn’t shown many reasons why he should be batting first for this team, but alas, that’s where he’s been and it makes him a cash game consideration.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (Vince Velasquez) Park - CHW
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.25
You’ll see a couple of Red Sox in lineups today considering the matchup against Velasquez. Bogaerts, in some respects, has turned it back on this season with a .921 OPS already through his first 100 plate appearances. Some of that is propped up more on his BABIP than the power, which is a bit of a headscratcher, but it’s still early in the season. He makes a lot of contact and is tough to put down on strikes.
Willy Adames FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL (Undecided) Park - ATL
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.88
Shortstop is a tough position on this slate and there aren’t a ton of great options outside of Bogaerts. Adames should still be hitting second for the Brewers as they face off against Huascar Ynoa and the Braves. Ynoa is an average righty all things considered, though has been able to strike out batters at the major league level. Adames meanwhile has been solid to start the season with an OPS pushing around .800 and six home runs already. I don’t mind the price on either site, but again much prefer Xander and the Red Sox stack.
Third Base
Rafael Devers FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - CHW (Vince Velasquez) Park - CHW
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.29
Velasquez can dial up the K’s at times, but he’s also been known to allow the long ball as well and that’s one of the reasons that the Red Sox have among the highest run lines of the day on Friday. Devers hasn’t been as good as last season, though he’s striking out less and putting the ball in play around 81% of the time. You’d like to see a bit more power in the bat, but so far that’s one of the reasons the price has dipped some. Boston is definitely a stack for us on this slate.
Alex Bregman FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.76
Like with Bogaerts at shortstop, I much prefer Devers to some other plays at third for this slate. But I could talk myself into Bregman here against the righty Brieske. Bregman is picking things up a bit from last season and does still remain one of the tougher guys to strike out. He walks (13.9%) at the exact rate he strikes out (13.9%), both of which are elite numbers. The BABIP isn’t helping him with all the contact but the OPS is right around .800.
Outfield
Mike Trout FD 4300 DK 5900
Opponent - WSH (Joan Adon) Park - WSH
FD - 15.61 DK - 11.55
Trout is back to putting up MVP numbers this season with six home runs already and a 1.128 OPS this early on in the season. He doesn’t steal bases anymore, but that’s okay considering he’s about the best hitter in the game at this point. He’s elite in the power department and gets on base among the best in the league. The Angels are in a good spot against Joan Adon who has struggled in his first 28 major league innings, sporting a 4.49 xFIP while walking more than five batters per nine innings.
Daulton Varsho FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 11.7 DK - 8.91
Pavin Smith FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.6
These two should hit 1-2 in the Diamondbacks lineup here on Friday and the team is in a good place facing off against Chad Kuhl who has a 1.90 ERA but that’s built on an unsustainable 87% LOB% and a .177 BABIP against. He’s much more like the 4.59 career xFIP guy we’ve seen for is 463 major league innings. Varsho has been good this season with an OPS around .800, five home runs, and a couple of stolen bases. In the leadoff spot, you have to like the price on both sites.
Smith has shown flashes as well. He also has an OPS hovering around .800, walks 11% of the time and is sporting a .359 wOBA. He’s been about 80 OPS points better against righties for his career where he’s a well above-average hitter. These two bats really help when trying to pile together a couple of the more expensive arms on this slate.
