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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 5/2
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Guards
James Harden FD - $9800 DK - $9800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 57.4 DK - 62.78
Doncic may top the board in terms of overall projection but with the discount on both sites, James Harden is easily our #1 PTS/$ play on this two-game slate. The 76ers got it tough here with the loss of Joel Embiid for at least the first two games but for fantasy, it gives a huge boost to Harden who was up and down against Toronto but will be asked to carry the load here which gives him an extremely high floor and ceiling at these prices. Lock and load!
Gabe Vincent FD - $4800 DK - $4400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.04 DK - 26.9
To fit a couple of big names like Harden or Doncic in our lineups tonight, we are going to need some value and Vincent provides just that as he is expected to get the start for the third straight game with Kyle Lowry out. He played 27 and 30 minutes in games 5 & 6 against the Hawks taking 17 shots and dropping 24 fantasy points in each. At his price on both sites, I will take that if it means being able to free up some salary. I will have a ton of exposure in all formats.
Chris Paul FD - $10100 DK - $9100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 43.85 DK - 46.72
The system is overwhelmingly leaning on stars and scrubs tonight and paying up for Doncic and Harden but also like having some exposure to Chris Paul. Outside of game four with Devin Booker returning, he has been elite for fantasy averaging 54 DK points in the other five games. The usage is most definitely down with Booker back but he more than makes up for it with his elite distribution skills. If there is a chance he will be the 3rd of 4th highest owned guard tonight, I love going overweight in this spot and having more than the field.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler FD - $10700 DK - $9200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.34 DK - 47.39
Butler sat out game five as the Heat clinched a round one victory against the Hawks but is probable for game one tonight and has a price tag that stands out on DraftKings. That is great news as the Heat will still be without Kyle Lowry and Butler was averaging 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game in the first four before sitting out game five. I am expecting another 20+ shot game which gives him an elite floor and ceiling on DraftKings putting him in the Doncic/Harden territory on this slate in terms of PTS/$. At his price on FanDuel, there is a good chance he is a bit lower owned making him a terrific leverage pivot on this small slate.
Reggie Bullock FD - $5500 DK - $5400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 22.08 DK - 24.69
Again, we are going to need some value on this slate and the good news is there is some available, and Bullock is one that stands out at the SF position. He isn't going to win you a GPP with a 6x+ fantasy performance but he also isn't going to kill your lineups as he is coming off a series against Utah where he averaged over 42 minutes on the floor averaging 10.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and around 25 fantasy points per game. I will have the most exposure in cash but will have some in all formats on this smaller slate.
Power Forward/Center
P.J. Tucker FD - $4500 DK - $4000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.01 DK - 23.4
Paul Reed FD - $4100 DK - $4200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 25.16 DK - 23.75
With the system absolutely loving using all the money on guards tonight, I am going to go ahead and guess these two will be in almost every lineup tonight. Neither really provides a ton of upside but should completely kill your lineup and allows for the stars and scrubs build where you can load up on near-guaranteed raw points. Tucker put up a couple of duds in the first round but hit and exceed 6x value on DraftKings three times. I will take the gamble on another one of those performances tonight.
For Reed, he was a nonfactor in the first round playing no more than 12 minutes so there is some risk with our projection of 24-26 minutes. I am on board with it, however, as the 76ers will need him, Millsap, and DeAndre Jordan in the first two games with the absence of Joel Embiid. Of the three, Reed is our favorite to get the most minutes and opportunity but stay tuned for starting lineups later in the day.
