DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Sunday 5/1/22

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Point Guard / Shooting Guard

Stephen Curry FD - $9500 DK - $8900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 47.91 DK - 49.92

Curry is coming too cheap on DraftKings at sub-$9K and now that he’s fully back in the starting lineup, the minutes should press towards 40 as long as the game stays close. He took 22 and 23 shots in each of the last two games, putting up 30 and 33 points respectively. He was able to get after it on the defensive end with six steals total in that span and he’s likely to keep the assists in the 6-7 range at least. The Grizzlies are going to have their hands full with Curry in this series and the Warriors in general are looking like a very tough out.

Jrue Holiday FD - $8100 DK - $8200
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 46.27 DK - 46.88

For the Bucks to be ultra-competitive in this series Jrue is going to need to be pretty amazing considering Milwaukee is still without Khris Middleton for the foreseeable future. It was hit or miss for him last series with the shooting not completely there on a consistent basis, and more of the playmaking duties fell onto Giannis’s shoulders as well. But Holiday still averaged 16 points, seven rebounds, and five rebounds over 36 minutes per. It stands to reason that the run increases with games staying closer here. He’s going to have Jayson Tatum duties on the defensive end which is a task in and of itself, but he’s still a good play here.

Klay Thompson FD - $6500 DK - $7100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 38.55 DK - 41.03

He’s got the minutes ramped up to 40 which he played in the closeout game against the Nuggets last time out. If that’s going to be the case then I think are still getting him as a solid value play on FanDuel. It’s a bit tougher on DraftKings where he’s gotten a bit too expensive. Sure, Curry joining the starting lineup doesn’t help the usage rate, but he averaged 17 shots per game over the Denver series and lit it up at 43% from three. This is going to be an up-and-down series against the Grizzlies who will want to get out in transition.

On the cheap side, I think you can consider the Bucks wings Wesley Matthews (FD $3800 DK $3500) and Grayson Allen (FD $5600 DK $4800) hoping that one of them plays 28-30 minutes and just does anything. You’ll need a bit more from Allen because of the price points.

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11800 DK - $11000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 67.1 DK - 68.89

If there’s one guy to spend up for on this slate then it has to be Giannis. From a fantasy point's perspective, there’s no one in his class going on Saturday. Sure, he has a very tough matchup against the Celtics and their top-ranked defense, but on a two-gamer we’ll just have to live with that. He crushed the Bulls series, of course, putting up 29 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists in “just” 34 minutes. He’ll be asked to play considerably more in this one especially forecasting that the games will stay much closer throughout. He’s going to cost a pretty penny, but he’s easily the best spend-up as he’s been much of the year.

Dillon Brooks FD - $5200 DK - $5800
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 31.88

I like the price on Brooks better on FanDuel, but the middle-tier salary might be in play on both sites. He’s scoring dependent which we saw last series against the Grizzlies, scoring 23 or more in three of the games, but struggling in the other three. If he can stay out of foul trouble then he should play in the high-30s especially considering how guard-heavy this Warriors team is right now. But Brooks has been in foul trouble which can cause problems in the minutes as well. This is all to say that he is a value play for sure but there is some risk.

Power Forward/ Center

Brandon Clarke FD - $5900 DK - $6100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.65 DK - 32.19

Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6100 DK - $5900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.02 DK - 29.93

It will be interesting to see what the Grizzlies do at the four and five in this series. We saw them ditch Steve Adams completely last series and start Xavier Tillman. But it was Brandon Clarke who really benefitted, averaging more than 30 minutes per game over the last four. He was amazing in that stretch, averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds, and more than a block per game. If this is going to be the new normal for him through the playoffs, then the prices are just still too low. He’s risky coming off the bench, but man it would be nuts to think he goes back to just something like 20 minutes per game.

Meanwhile, there’s the curious case of Jaren Jackson Jr. who, from a fantasy points per minute standpoint is excellent but has had such trouble staying on the court. He’s been an absolute foul machine over the playoffs, though when he finally stays under control in Game 6 against the Wolves he was awesome. Triple JJJ put up 18 points and 14 rebounds in 34 minutes. Basically, if he can stay on the court then these prices are a total joke. But staying on the court has been his primary failing.

Bobby Portis FD - $6200 DK - $6400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 34.96 DK - 35.63

Portis is likely to see a lot of minutes in this series against a very big Boston team. After taking over for Middleton in the starting lineup, he was excellent, averaging 15 points and 14 rebounds over the last three games of the series against the Bulls. The minutes could even see an increase in this series considering how Boston is built across the backline. I don’t think the price has fully caught up with how many minutes Portis is playing with Middleton on the shelf and there’s some chance that number even ticks up going forward.

Al Horford (FD $5300 DK $5700) could see a lot of minutes in this series if he’s tasked with Giannis on defense.

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