San Francisco Giants' Carlos Rodon pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets Wednesday, April 20, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
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Opponent - OAK (Daulton Jefferies) Park - OAK
FD - 49.8 DK - 27.75
Rodon had the best season of his career in 2021 and has somehow found a way to improve on it this time around. He’s been an ace’s ace over his last 150 innings or so, striking out close to 13 batters per nine innings and cutting down the walk rate considerably. His first 17 innings in a Giants’ uniform this season have been electric and he gets a good matchup against the A’s on Monday and is a whopping -269 home favorite, the second-best of any pitcher on this slate. This is a pretty easy call all things considered and I suspect he’s the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - BAL
FD - 37.71 DK - 20.3
After struggling mightily with injuries over the last couple of seasons, it looks like Luis Severino is back now and has had a great start to this season. Through his first 13 innings this year, the righty has a 25% K rate with an ERA in the low-2’s. The 3.26 xFIP shows that he’s been running a bit hot, but you have to like that he’s gone five innings in each of the last two. And now’s he’s a -289 home favorite, which are the best win odds on the slate. I think Rodon is the better play, but Severino rings in as a SP2 on DraftKings and an upside play on FanDuel if you decide to fade Rodon over there.
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.34
The White Sox face off against the lefty Daniel Lynch on Tuesday and have one of the highest implied run lines on the slate. Lynch has been mostly below average for his career, failing to deliver much in the way of strikeouts while sporting a 5.13 xFIP over his first 78 innings. Grandal has really struggled out of the gate this season but for his career, the switch-hitter has been better against southpaws. He moves up in the order with the injury to Eloy Jimenez and the price is way down because he’s started so slow. This is a good time to buy.
Opponent - ARI (Zach Davies) Park - ARI
FD - 15.15 DK - 11.42
The Dodgers have such a good lineup that most days they are going to have among the highest implied run lines. It’s just the nature of going almost nine-deep with the bats. Freeman is part of that crew, signing the huge contract in the off-season and slotting right into the middle of the lineup. And he’s been excellent to start, rocking an early .928 OPS, hitting three home runs, and putting the ball in play about 75% of the time. There are ways to save on this slate so spending up here isn’t all that big of an issue.
Opponent - HOU (Jake Odorizzi) Park - HOU
FD - 12.79 DK - 9.68
It’s been a slow start for Semien to begin the season after being one of the bigger off-season signings for the Rangers. He was a fantasy beast in 2021 with 45 home runs and 15 stolen bases, one of the best performances of the year from anyone in the majors. But the OPS is barely over .500 right now thanks to a dip in the hard contact rate and a lowered BABIP. He also hasn’t hit a home run yet. But let’s buy the dip here on a guy with too long of a track record to really sweat a 73 plate appearance sample size.
Opponent - ARI (Zach Davies) Park - ARI
FD - 14.74 DK - 10.89
Zach Davies is the definition of an average arm and for his career has sported a 4.52 xFIP and K rate less than seven batters per nine. Muncy should be in the cleanup spot for the Dodgers considering they are facing the righty and he’s 2B eligible on DraftKings. The price is still in check because he’s been struggling to start this season with an OPS in the lower 600s thanks, in part to a BABIP that’s 100 points lower than his career average. This is still a dude taking walks at an 18% rate and he’s tough to put down on strikes. As is often a theme in early MLB, we are looking to find value with guys who’ve struggled to start the season. And Muncy fits the bill there with a career track record that doesn’t have me too concerned.
Opponent - ARI (Zach Davies) Park - ARI
FD - 15.64 DK - 12.04
Dodgers are something of a theme on this slate and it’s easy to see why considering the strength of their lineup and the matchup against the soft-tossing Davies. Turner is another LAD guy who hasn’t turned it all the way up early in the season with just one home run and three stolen bases. He’s striking out a bit more than his career average and not taking as many walks. But this is one of the best fantasy guys in the game when he’s rolling and there’s no reason to be overly concerned with the relative lack of production to start the season.
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC
FD - 12.84 DK - 10.01
Anderson has been very tough to put down on strikes this season, putting the ball in play around 84% of the time. When he gets on base he’s a threat to steal and has enough power in the bat to give him some pretty high upside. And for his career, he’s been considerably better against lefties with an .875 OPS and .369 OPS in that split. Those numbers grade out way higher than what he’s done against righties and it bodes well for the matchup against Daniel Lynch.
Opponent - TEX (Taylor Hearn) Park - TEX
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.55
Bregman is having something of a bounce-back season after struggling last year. He’s got the OPS in the mid-.800s with three home runs already after hitting only 12 over the course of all of last year. He’s walking (14%) about as much as he’s striking out (16%) and will face off against the lefty Taylor Hearns who has struggled with control over the course of his career. And Bregman has raked southpaws for his career, rocking a .405 wOBA and 161 wRC+ in that split. I like the pricing on both sites.
Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - BAL
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.43
Donaldson has dropped down to fifth in the Yankees’ lineup after starting the season in the leadoff role. The 31% K rate hasn’t helped in that respect and he’s going down on strikes just a little too often. But Jordan Lyles can help cure some of that considering this guy has put down fewer than seven batters per nine over more than 1K career innings pitched. The Yankees bats really have some upside here and Donaldson is coming too cheap FanDuel especially.
Opponent - ARI (Zach Davies) Park - ARI
FD - 15.9 DK - 11.97
Rounding things out with the top of the Dodgers’ order we have Betts who should be in the leadoff slot once again. He’s another one who’s started the season in a bit of a slump with the OBP actually higher than the Slugging%, not something you see everyday. His BABIP is about 60 points of career average though the hard contact rate is down some as well. He’s getting the ball in the air, but the Hr/FB ratio is down as well. I do think we are going to see things pick up for him though and the price is totally reasonable here.
Also, Cody Bellinger (FD $3300 DK $3200) is coming way too cheap on DraftKings and has turned things around to start this season.
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.71
The 24-year-old should be hitting in the two-spot for the White Sox when they face the lefty Lynch on Tuesday. Through his first couple of seasons, Robert has been amazing against lefties, tuning up that split to a 1.045 OPS and .435 wOBA. Those are elite numbers and he’s flashed a ton of power. I love the FanDuel price and like stacking him with Tim Anderson at the top of the order.
Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - BAL
FD - 11.8 DK - 8.61
What should we do with Joey Gallo here? FanDuel is practically daring us to play him considering he’s coming very close to the middle despite hitting around 6th in a powerful Yankee lineup. But it’s because he’s been terrible to start the season, striking out 40% of the time and barely getting anything going. There’s no talk of injury so I think we need to take it at face value, but he’s been too good throughout his career to be this cheap.
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