Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) in the first half during a preseason NBA basketball game against the Phoenix Suns, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2019, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
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Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 55.99 DK - 57.23
Ja struggled in Game 4 and the Grizzlies ended up losing. The series is now knotted, but this guy is a total bargain at these prices. There’s a good chance we see him push towards the 40 minutes from Game 3. In that one he had a triple-double a 16/10/10 line. One would have to think the run should be similar here as well and I think Ja coming at sub-10K on both sites is about as good a deal as you can get. Did the T-Wolves figure something out defensively here? No, of course not. I think he’s a pretty easy play here and the price makes it a good call because as long as he gets full run there’s almost no way he doesn’t hit value.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 49.23 DK - 51.04
Butler is now close to an $11K player on FanDuel and frankly, he’s playing like one. While he might be a bit too expensive over there, he’s coming at something of a bargain on DraftKings considering the way he’s playing in this series. And Kyle Lowry being out again helps the chances of him putting up another monster line. He’s averaging 31 points per game for the series and has put up double-digit rebounds in each of the last two. The assist rate goes up with Lowry off the court and he’s gotten after it on the defensive end as well. In short, he’s just been playing as good as it gets and I think he’s a great starting place for cash games.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.1 DK - 37.29
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 24.96 DK - 27.27
Kyle Lowry is going to sit again on Tuesday which puts us in a weird spot with the Heat. On the one hand, it would seem like Herro would be an auto-play at these prices with Miami missing their point guard. But then you look at last game with Herro playing just 21 minutes, basically completely sucking and just crushing you soul if you played him in cash. The reality is something in between. On FanDuel, he’s way, way too cheap considering the circumstances around Lowry and I do think we still see his minutes pushing up and over 30.
And then there is Strus who is a tough one to evaluate. On the one hand, he played a team-high 36 minutes on Sunday, taking the second-most shots on the team. He ended up going 4-16 from the field and only scoring 12 points while also adding five rebounds and three assists. The issue with the Heat is just trying to figure out what they are going to do on a day-to-day basis so it’s not like we are even safe on Strus’s lower price tiering. But considering what he did in the last game, I think he’s a popular play on this slate.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.51 DK - 33.35
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.07 DK - 29.64
With this series knotted at two apiece and Devin Booker out at least the next couple of games, the Suns will need everything they can get from the role players in his absence. Cameron Johnson got the start in his place last time out and wasn’t anything to write home about in his 32 minutes, scoring 13 points on 4-12 shooting and getting in some foul trouble as well. But the usage rate should be fine enough in this spot and I expect the minutes to push close to 40 if he can get rolling a bit early. The price isn’t adjusted at all for his starting role and I think he’s still one of the best values on the slate.
Meanwhile, Crowder had foul trouble of his own last game and ended up playing only 29 minutes. He was 3-7 from the field and isn’t going to be a big usage guy even in the best of circumstances. But he’s not priced like one either and makes for a way to fit in some of the other superstars on this slate. At this point in the NBA playoff season, there aren’t much in the way of punt plays. So these middle-tier players are where we need to look for savings.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 54.57 DK - 57.16
Towns finally put it all together last game, playing 42 minutes and going for 33 points and 14 rebounds. It’s the one thing we’ve been waiting for from this guy in this series, to get rolling in the way we know he can when things are breaking right. He’s a singular talent, but too many times has gotten in his own way with fouls or just erratic play that’s had him coming up short on his prices. While one game doesn’t completely shift the narrative there, it’s at least an encouraging sign that is can happen. He’s coming too cheap on both sites, but especially DraftKings, if he’s going to be able to stay on the court for near-max minutes.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 45.1 DK - 46.09
With Kyle Lowry sitting out this game, we should see some more of the offense run through Bam. His assist rate climbs with Lowry out of the mix, even though the last game didn’t really let on to that with him handing out only one dime in his 30 minutes. But foul trouble and the blowout bit him last game in a way that I’m not sure will happen again. As long as the game stays close, the minutes for Adebayo seem ultra-safe even in his performance in this series, from a fantasy perspective has left a lot to be desired. But it’s hard to fade the Miami guys here on this slate, especially with them missing one of their key components once again.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.16 DK - 30.95
Though he’s started most of the season for the Grizzlies, the minutes have been inconsistent for Vanderbilt along the way. And that’s served to keep the price way down. But he’s found a path in this series over the last two games, playing 32 and 35 minutes respectively. In that stretch, he’s put up an average of 11 points and 10 rebounds. It’s looked great and would have him as an easy play on DraftKings especially. But it’s worth noting that this was a guy who played 9 minutes in Game 2 and 19 in Game 1. It can come and go with Vanderbilt for sure, making him still something of a risk.
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