Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, center, attempts a shot as Portland Trail Blazers' Anfernee Simons (1) and Damian Lillard, right, defend during an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2019. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 50.98 DK - 56.03
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 47.48 DK - 52.27
No reason to start anywhere else for the guard position than in this game. Let's start with Luka who made his return to the lineup for the first time in the series and looked good playing 34 min, taking 21 shots from the field(10 from behind the arc), and posting a double-double on 30 points and 10 rebounds. The price in the $10K range gives us a very nice PTS/$ floor here with a ton of upside as Doncic should get extended run in his second game.
On the other side of this game, we have Donovan Mitchell who is my top PTS/$ play on the entire slate. Through four games in this series, he is averaging over 40 minutes, averaging 25 shots a game, and has dropped at least 45 DK/43 FD points in all four. Elite play in all formats.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 52.71 DK - 58.04
With the likely guard ownership with the two above, we might get Harden at a bit of an ownership discount tonight and if that's the case, sign me up! He may not be getting the volume like the two guards above but he is an elite contributor in almost every category and is averaging just over 45 fantasy points a game(5x at these prices) on both sites. With Embiid banged up and playing through injury, Harden could most definitely take on more usage which would make his price massively underpriced for the upside.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.6 DK - 36.96
There isn't a whole lot of value on this slate but the system does like the PTS/$ floor with Marcus Smart. The upside is somewhat limited but he has been a solid producer against the Nets through three games scoring 12 or more points and dishing out five or more assists in each game while averaging 31.4 DK/30.1 FD points per game. All things considered on this small slate, Smart is in play in all formats in the low $6K range on both sites.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 32.92 DK - 33.72
To say it has been a disappointing series for the Nets would be a massive understatement. The biggest frustration has to be the poor play from Kevin Durant who is arguably the top player in the league and I just can't see myself paying top dollar expecting anything to dramatically change. With that, I like turning to the PTS/$ value, at least on DraftKings, with Bruce Brown who has been terrific over the last two games shooting 58% on 31 shots and topping 45 DK points in both. He is priced out on FanDuel but on DraftKings, he is one of our top PTS/$ plays on this small slate.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.68 DK - 49.93
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.79 DK - 25.29
The Raptors are looking to do the impossible and come back from a 0-3 deficit in a series and got 25% of the way there with a game four win. Unfortunately, they also lost one of their leaders in Fred Van Vleet who will also be out tonight for game five back in Philly. Pascal Siakam has been a points-per-minute beast all season and saw the biggest increase in productivity with FVV out during the season pushing up over 1.2 per minute on both sites. He has also been solid in this series tallying 40+ DK points in three of four games and coming off his best game of the series hitting 10 of 19 shots for 57 fantast points en route to a win. He is my top PF/C on this slate.
The Thad Young play is a bit speculative but coach Nurse shook things up last game giving him much more playing time and was rewarded for the decision. Thad put home 6 of 9 shots and added five rebounds and five assists for a 35-point fantasy performance. If he gets anywhere near that tonight, he should smash his price tag on both sites once again. Stay tuned for starting lineups and/or any news on the situation.
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