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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Playoffs 4/24/22
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Point Guard / Shooting Guard
Jrue Holiday FD - $8000 DK - $8300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.04 DK - 49.26
The Bucks played a weird game on Friday in that they blew out the Bulls in a game where that didn’t seem like that should be the case. With Khris Middleton on the shelf, the series seemed like the Bulls could get back in this thing and we’d be seeing something close to an even matchup. Nope. That being said, I think we get something close to an even game in this one and Jrue is still very much a cash play at these prices. In only 30 minutes last time around, Holiday put up 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists. It’s a great sign and the price didn’t move at all. This is one of the easier plays on the slate considering the context and he’ll probably be one of the higher-owned guys.
Zach LaVine FD - $6900 DK - $7400
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 44.61 DK - 49.05
Alex Caruso FD - $4600 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.45 DK - 31.62
The Bulls got smoked last game and it was a perplexing situation considering the Bucks were without Khris Middleton. It seemed like this was going to be the perfect spot for Chicago to rally and put a stamp on this series. They ended up losing by 20. But I think heading into Game 4 things are still mostly wide open and Chicago is live in this thing. For starters, Lavine has seen the price drop over the course of this initial set of the playoff games, with the usage rate dropping and him struggling to find a role in the series. But he’s simply coming too cheap now and we need to buy on the idea that he’s still jacking up shots in this matchup.
And then there is Caruso who has been mixed and matched in his assignments with this Bucks team. It seemed very much like he’d be a high 30’s minutes guy in this series, but that hasn’t been totally the case with how things have good so far. The blowout last game didn’t help at all. But with the middle-tier pricing still ringing in, I think we can still play the guy on both sites. If he’s getting run in the high 30s as he did in Game 2 then he should easily be able to pay these prices.
We need to keep an eye out for what is happening with Kyle Lowry (FD 6000 DK 6300). At the time of this writing, he’s questionable and left the last game early with a leg issue. If he couldn’t go then Tyler Herro (FD 5900 DK 6800) would instantly become a cash game play even coming off the bench. The latter played 34 minutes last game when Lowry went out and scored 24 points on a team-high 22 shots.
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11700 DK - $11500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 67.07 DK - 70.32
He only played 29 minutes in Game 3, but it was pretty easy for Giannis to completely dominate that run on the court. He put up 18 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds in contracted time on the court, a disappointing performance from a fantasy perspective. But he’s likely to run 37+ minutes as long as these games stay close, and despite the Bulls’ dumpstering it in Game 3, that should still be the case. It’s nearly impossible to fade Giannis on this slate, especially considering how easy it is for him to put up points in limited minutes. We’ll find our savings elsewhere.
Cameron Johnson FD - $5100 DK - $4900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.51 DK - 33.35
Cameron Johnson started the last game for the injured Devin Booker which should have felt like a huge windfall in terms of fantasy ownership, one of the buys of a lifetime. But the situation turned weird with the Suns force-feeding the ball inside almost the entire game and neutralizing the Suns' wings when it came to actually scoring fantasy points. That being said, I think it’s still a good chance to roster this guy who should see some solid usage and is coming solidly in the mid-tier. The Suns being without Booker opens up considerable usage and Johnson still isn’t priced out of the box.
Power Forward/ Center
Bobby Portis FD - $6200 DK - $6200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.8 DK - 35.46
Portis got the start in Game 3 and was instantly relevant in this series, tallying 18 points and 16 rebounds in just 25 minutes on the court. It’s hard to imagine him having a bigger impact if you were dreaming on it and these kinds of opportunities just don’t really come around at this point in the playoff season. But Portis was amazing, playing essentially 1:1 for Khris Middleton and he should be able to stay on for longer stretches in Game 4. The price has come up some, but not enough considering he should be in line for even more minutes if the game stays close.
Deandre Ayton FD - $8500 DK - $8100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 40.44 DK - 42.71
Ayton completely crushed it last game with the Suns missing Devin Booker and very much needing someone else in the way of secondary scorers. It wouldn’t have seemed like the post player would have picked up this kind of thing, but the NBA is weird so here we are. Ayton finished off with a monster line, scoring 28 points and adding 17 rebounds in 35 minutes. I don’t think we can trust the minutes to get much higher here but there’s a chance Chris Paul and company continue to feed him through the offense and he sees similar usage that way.
Brook Lopez FD - $5500 DK - $5500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.94 DK - 33.83
Lopez had a bad Game 3 for the Bucks though some of that was a byproduct of the Bucks blowout of the Bulls. Everyone had their minutes cut when the game got out of hand. My concern with Bro-Lo is that with Bobby Portis starting for Middleton, there are just more opportunities for Milwaukee to run lineups without a traditional center and he’s thereby neutralized from a fantasy perspective. This one is a close call from that perspective and it isn’t like he was good on a per-minute basis anyway. But he’s coming pretty cheap on both sites for what he can provide so I think he’s in consideration for cash games.
