(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
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Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - LAA
FD - 36.73 DK - 18.87
Ok, the good news first. Syndergaard is a huge favorite in this game, coming in at -228 at home, easily the best win odds on the day. He’s facing off against an Orioles team that ranks third-to-last in the league in team wOBA and who strikes out the at the second-highest rate in the league. The matchup and win probability are about as good as it gets. The issue for Thor is that in his first 11 innings this season he’s only struck out five batters and the 1.59 ERA is a bit of smoke and mirrors compared to the 4.13 xFIP. It’s still early of course, but that is a bit concerning. If he’s going to turn it around, from that respect, this is the matchup to do it.
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - ATL
FD - 35.38 DK - 18.23
Anderson is another odd case here. He’s coming off a couple of solid seasons with xFIPs under 4.00 and an almost a K-per-inning strikeout rate. And he’s facing a mediocre Marlins offense that doesn’t do all that much particularly well. Plus, Anderson is a -169 home favorite, one of the better implied win odds on the day. But he’s also struggled to start this season, striking out only eight and walking six in the first eight innings. It’s an issue for sure, but he has a track record that would suggest this won’t last.
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - ATL
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.14
Bringing Matt Olson on board in the off-season is already looking like the right choice for the Braves with the first basemen rocking a 1.100+ OPS through the first couple weeks of the season and walking more than he’s striking out. Sure, the .486 isn’t anywhere close to sustainable, but the patience at the plate should mitigate the regression there. Elieser Hernandez has some K stuff in his repertoire, but he struggled with control at times as well. The Braves are in a good spot on Saturday’s slate and Olson is coming a bit too cheap.
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - LAA
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.74
Walsh should be hitting in the middle of the order against the righty Watkins on Saturday and is set to capitalize on the better side of his platoon split in this game. He’s coming off a 29-home run season in 2021 that saw him sport an .849 OPS. He’s prone to strikeout, but that’s way less of an issue with Watkins on the mound. The righty has struck out just 5.31 batters per nine through his first 60+ innings. That’s just terrible and the Angels have one of the best matchups on Saturday.
Opponent - NYM (Undecided) Park - ARI
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.2
The Mets aren’t sure who they are starting on Saturday which is almost always a good sign for the opposing team. Marte has struggled to start the season which has his FanDuel price trending close to the minimum. Though the DraftKings price is probably a bit on the high side. He’s coming off a .900 OPS season last year thanks to a solid contact rate, a BABIP that was a bit on the high side and a 40% hard contact rate that you love to see. It’s dipped some this season, but we are still so early. Let’s take advantage of the FD while we can.
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - ATL
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.25
Albies is pretty expensive, but it’s for good reason considering the way he’s started the season. The dude already has five home runs in the early going, a reminder about the power that he displayed last year when he jacked 30 home runs total. The .189 BABIP is a disaster this season, but regression on that number would have him more like a mid-900s OPS dude. I like some of the top-of-the-order Braves and think we can fit them in considering the pitching options aren’t breaking the bank.
Opponent - ARI (Humberto Castellanos) Park - ARI
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.84
After struggling in his first season with the Mets, Lindor is putting it all back together this time around with a 1K OPS out of the gate to start the year. He’s already knocked four home runs, has three stolen bases, and is walking (14%) more than he’s striking out (11%). That’s about as good as you can ask for from a dude who signed a massive contract last year. Facing off against Castellanos gives him a chance to add to it considering he lacks anything in the way of swing and miss stuff.
Opponent - SEA (Matt Brash) Park - SEA
FD - 8.54 DK - 6.57
Matt Brash has flashed K stuff throughout the minors and even into the majors, but he struggles with his control for sure. That could help with playing some Royals’ bats on Saturday. Witt is a heralded prospect who’s been called up at a young age to the big club, though it’s been a struggle in the early going. He’s striking out 30% of the time, really not taking any walks and the OPS is in the dumpster. That’s keeping the price low, but remember this is a dude with a ton of pedigree. It simply won’t stick like this for long and there’s a reason KC has him up here at this age. I’m sticking with Witt as long as he’s near the top of the lineup.
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - SEA
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.39
Suarez is coming off a weird season that saw him hitting 31 home runs and yet only just scraping over a .700 OPS. That’s pretty hard to do all things considered and he’s a difficult guy to evaluate from a fantasy perspective. On the one hand, the power is there for sure, but on the other, he’s become almost a two true outcomes kind of player. He’s kept up the power to start this season, but the walks are up which is a good sign. Over the course of his career, Suarez has been significantly better against lefty pitching and Kris Bubic has struggled to start this year, and has been a below-average arm over the course of his career. I can live with the prices on Suarez here.
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - ATL
FD - 11.82 DK - 8.95
Riley is coming way too cheap on DraftKings even in the righty-righty matchup. He’s been raking to start the season with a .900+ OPS out of the gate, upping the walk rate, reducing the K’s and starting the year with a 43% hard contact rate. This is actually the slightly better side of his platoon split seeing as how Riley has been better against righties, by a hair, over the course of his career. Again, this is mostly a DK play all things considered, but that site is making things pretty easy seeing where he’s priced.
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - LAA
FD - 17.24 DK - 12.92
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - LAA
FD - 16.52 DK - 12.22
We’ve been on these guys a bunch lately and it’s been a mixed bag for sure. That’s baseball in a nutshell. In a large sample size, it’s almost imperative that Trout be a play considering what he brings to the table. He’s started off this season much like he’s played his career, pretty awesome. The dude has an OPS pushing around 1.000 thanks to the power (2 home runs in 37 PAs) and patience (16% walk rate). He’s a generational talent for a reason. And is almost always a guy to pay up for.
And then there is Ohtani who is also crazy expensive but has the power to pay off the salary and gets to square off against Watkins who can’t strike anyone out, like at all. The righty is one of the worst regular starters in the league and he’s why it makes sense to pay all the way up for the Angels 1-2 hitters. There is just no K expectation at all.
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - ATL
FD - 11.13 DK - 8.54
Rosario should be hitting 5th for the Braves on Saturday, getting moved down the order some with Albies hitting the ball so well. Rosario has had a disastrous start to the season with an OPS under .300 early on. I struggled to even type that number it’s so bad. But if Atlanta is going to keep him in the middle of the lineup then I think we need to “trust” him at these prices. He’s basically coming at the minimums and has mostly been a mid-700s OPS guy over the last couple of seasons.
I also like Brandon Nimmo (FD $3700 DK $4300) on this slate, especially to pair with Lindor.
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