Every team usually plays on Wednesday, with games spread all throughout the day. That has us with plenty to discuss, so, let's kick things off with the pitchers!
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Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - BAL
FD - 42.92 DK - 24.11
Burnes won NL Cy Young last season and it's easy to understand why. The hard-throwing righty finished 2021 with a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9 rate. That's pretty much the guy we saw in 2020, and it's clear that he's taken the leap into ace territory. That's horrible news for Baltimore, with the Orioles ranked 26th in both runs scored and OBP while sitting 25th in xwOBA. The oddsmakers love this spot, too, making Burnes a -190 favorite in a game with a 7.5-run total. That means Baltimore is projected for just 3.5 runs, making Burnes the best play on the board.
Opponent - STL (Jordan Hicks) Park - STL
FD - 27.39 DK - 13.43
This might be an unpopular play, but Greinke is just too cheap. This guy has churned out quality starts for over a decade now and kicked off the season with 5.1 one-run innings in his Royals debut. That's the guy we've become accustomed to throughout Greinke's career, generating a 3.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP dating back to 2009. He's fallen off a bit, but a 3.39 ERA and 1.08 WHIP since 2017 is nothing to scoff at. Facing the Cardinals sounds like a tough matchup on the surface, but St. Louis sat 20th in runs scored and 19th in xwOBACON last season. If he can just battle through the tough top half of this order, Greinke should cruise through the bottom half and provide the minimum quality start we need from a player this cheap.
Kyle Hendricks (FD $8100, DK $6600) is a quality start machine and should pick another one up against Pittsburgh's 29th-ranked offense.
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - ATL
FD - 14.67 DK - 10.92
Olson opened some eyes when he signed that massive deal with the Braves, but he's earned every bit of it with his pristine power. The southpaw slugger generated a .371 OBP, .540 SLG, and .911 OPS last season. He's obliterated righties throughout his career, too, posting an .890 OPS against them. We love that with his early-season form, hitting .500 through the opening week en route to a 1.432 OPS. That's obviously not sustainable, but a hot hitter in a great matchup is tough to avoid. Josiah Gray is undoubtedly someone we want to exploit, with Josiah generating a 5.67 ERA and 1.42 WHIP for his career.
Opponent - MIN (Chris Paddack) Park - MIN
FD - 13.6 DK - 10.25
It's funny that we have these two guys in here, but they're two of the best first basemen in baseball. Freeman has been playing at an MVP level for the last two years, providing a .311 AVG, .412 OBP, .539 SLG, and .951 OPS in that span. Those are quite simply some of the best numbers in the league, posting even better averages against righties. He's got a .435 OBP, .582 SLG, and 1.018 OPS in that same span against righties, which is scary since he's in the heart of the best lineup in baseball. We love the matchup with Chris Paddack, too, and we'll discuss that more later on!
If you need a catcher, Wilson Contreras is an excellent option against a putrid Pittsburgh pitching staff.
Opponent - CLE (Triston McKenzie) Park - CIN
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.6
It really feels like India will be a star in this league in no time. The leadoff hitter for the Reds had an unbelievable .376 OBP in his rookie season last year. That's no surprise when you see his .369 OBP at the minors, providing a great power and speed combination as well. Hitting 21 homers and swiping 12 steals in a rookie campaign is tough to find, and we genuinely believe he can be a 30-20 player the more he develops and understands the pitchers at this level. McKenzie is an easy pitcher to understand, too, with the volatile righty posting a 4.61 career ERA.
Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - PIT
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.14
Cubs fans have been waiting for Happ to break out for years, and it might finally be his time now that they've gotten rid of everyone else. That has forced him into the heart of the order, batting cleanup in the opening week of the season. He's been doing damage in that spot, picking up a hit in seven of his 10 at-bats en route to a .750 OBP and 1.150 OPS. Those numbers are clearly not sustainable, but it makes it hard to understand why he's so cheap on both sites right now. The matchup with Zach Thompson is tremendous, too, with the Pirates pitcher providing a 5.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 85 innings at Triple-A.
Opponent - MIN (Chris Paddack) Park - MIN
FD - 14.01 DK - 10.78
Turner was the top pick in season-long leagues for a reason. This is simply one of the best five-cat players around, providing elite value through steals, runs scored, and some pop. He was one of the league leaders with over 10 DK points per game last season, and it's horrifying for the rest of the league that he's batting third in the most potent lineup in baseball. That's why they're projected for five runs here, with Chris Paddack pitching terribly over recent years. The righty has a 4.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP dating back to 2020, and those numbers have been trending in the wrong direction in that span. In his last two starts against LAD, Paddack has allowed 10 runs across 7.2 innings!
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - BAL
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.39
Adames was terrible in his time with Tampa Bay, but it's been a different story since he joined the Brewers. He talked about how the batting eye messed with him in Tampa but it's clearly not an issue in Milwaukee. Over the final 104 games of last season, Willy provided a .286 AVG, .371 OBP, .528 SLG, and .898 OPS. That earned him the three-hole in this lineup, and he's solidified a top-5 spot in this lineup from here on out. The best part of this is that he faces a lefty, with Adames hitting from the right side. He had a .992 OPS against lefties in 2020 and has been better against them throughout his career.
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - ATL
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.67
The Braves will be one of the most popular stacks on the board, and it's easy to understand why. The World Series champs just dropped 16 runs on Tuesday night, and they truly look like one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. That's bad news with the way Gray has struggled throughout his career, with Riley looking like one of their best options. The slugging third baseman has a .303 AVG, .369 OBP, .530 SLG, and .899 OPS since the start of last season. Those are some of the best numbers around, making him a great pairing in this Atlanta stack.
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - CHW
FD - 10.81 DK - 8.04
Suarez is coming off the worst season of his career, but this dude can still smash baseballs. He's got 155 homers and 406 RBI since 2016, which is actually Top-10 in baseball in that span. That raw power makes him a great GPP option on any slate because he still had 29 dingers in what was a down 2021 season. The biggest reason we love him here is the matchup. The only thing holding him back is his strikeouts, and that's not really an issue with Keuchel's horrific K rate. He also pitches from the left side, which is incredible since Eugenio is providing a .361 OBP, .489 SLG, and .850 OPS against southpaws for his career.
Opponent - MIN (Chris Paddack) Park - MIN
FD - 14.24 DK - 10.72
If you're going to stack Dodgers, you can't fade Mookie. Betts just had the worst year of his career and still finished with a .367 OBP and .487 SLG. If that's not a good indicator of how ridiculous this guy is, maybe his .372 career OBP, .517 SLG, and .889 OPS will persuade you. That doesn't even consider his speed, batting atop the best lineup in baseball. All of that makes him one of the easiest plays out there, even though he's one of the most expensive players on the board.
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.31
If you don't already know, Alvarez is one of the best pure hitters around. For his career, Yordan is accruing a .288 AVG, .370 OBP, .575 SLG, and .944 OPS. That's a ridiculous month for many players, and it's crazy that he's done that damage in nearly 1,000 at-bats. He's been even better against righties, totaling a .951 OPS against them for his career. All of that is no good for Merrill Kelly, collecting a 4.44 ERA and 1.29 WHIP last year. That's not terrible, but it's not good enough to get through this potent Astros lineup.
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - ATL
FD - 12.66 DK - 9.71
Rosario has been a sneaky fantasy player for most of his career, and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable. We're talking about the leadoff hitter for the World Series champs! This guy has earned that, too, compiling a .276 AVG, .480 SLG, and .794 OPS since 2017. Most of that damage has come against right-handed pitching, with Rosario registering a .499 SLG and .810 OPS against them for his carer. Both of those numbers are 100 points higher than his splits against lefties, and it's why he's batting leadoff atop this bludgeoning Braves lineup.
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