Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (2) pushes the ball up the court during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Orlando Magic, Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 58.78 DK - 64.51
The Mavericks can clinch a first-round playoff series with a win at home on Friday meaning I think we see at least solid minutes out of Luka to start here. With a lot of uncertainty going into this slate of games because of different teams’ motivations, I do think there is at least some moderate safety in this play. Dallas is huge favorites over a lowly, and tanking, Portland team but Luka at least has a solid floor if the Mavs are motivated to put a stamp on this one early. Luka has scored 30+ points in five of his last six games with double-digit assists in each of his last four.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.9 DK - 54.36
Though they are probably going to be the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference, that isn’t a certainty yet and the Hornets have the motivation to keep really trying at least through Friday’s games. Though the game on Thursday against the Magic turned into a blowout, we saw the willingness to play LaMelo a lot of minutes and that should be the case again here against Chicago. In closer matchups, Ball should push 36-37 minutes which with his fantasy profile is more than enough to justify these prices. In fact, they look like total bargains all things considered. Over the last six games, he’s averaging 22 points, 11 assists, five rebounds and 2.5 blocks. The FanDuel price is basically a lock on this slate.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.26 DK - 39.54
Hilariously, this slate is probably going to come down to moderately stacking this entire game, which is featuring a laundry list of scrubs. But so goes the end of the NBA season when tankers gonna tank and some squads want to see what they have with young guys. Simpson came from basically out of the league to playing 40 minutes a game, which is what he’s essentially done in the last two. In that time he’s put up seven points, eight assists, three rebounds, and three blocks+steals. The potential minutes are what still make him a play at these prices against a terrible Lakers team.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 33.86 DK - 36.6
The Lakers are sitting out Lebron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook to close out the season and giving the minutes to almost anyone who resembles someone young. They are on the back-to-back here and on Thursday and last game Monk played 37 minutes and took the second-most shots on the team with 17. He finished with 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and some defensive stats as well. The price hasn’t caught up to how the Lakers are going to use him (presumably) now and what it means to play without this team’s big three. The Lakers are in a tremendous spot in what could be an up-and-down game.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 53.14 DK - 56.87
The Nets still control their path to the seventh seed in the East and a chance to play one game at home in order to make the playoffs. That’s, of course, an enticing proposition compared to the alternative and they’ve been forced to play Durant and Kyrie Irving major minutes in the quest. This game is as important as any of them seeing as how beating Cleveland would win them the season series and make it so they would essentially vault over the Cavs in the standings. Durant has had to play 40+ minutes in four of the last six games and in that stretch he’s averaging 33 points, nine rebounds, seven assists, and more than two defensive stats. It’s an MVP-like tear and the Nets have needed every bit of it. That will be the case again on Friday.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.35 DK - 33.68
Talen Horton-Tucker turned in a monster on Thursday night against the Warriors when he was essentially given free rein over the offense with Lebron, AD, and Russ all out. THT finished with a team-high 28 shots and ended up dropping 40 points on Golden State. Some might wonder where this was all season for the one younger guy the Lakers decided to retain, but that’s beside the point I suppose. He should be in line for it once again and the price barely moved game-over-game. I suspect he’s once again chalk and likely the highest-owned play on the entire slate.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.52 DK - 38.07
Hoard is another among the group from the Thunder and Lakers’ game that deserves heavy consideration in cash games. He’s one of the OKC guys who came out of nowhere to basically start playing major minutes. And he’s been excellent over the short-term, necessitating a price increase on both sites. Over the last four games, Hoard has had some wild lines and over the last four games has average 16 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. It’s hard to trust anything about this team at this point, but I think we can (hopefully) bank on him playing in the high 40s once again in this game versus the Lakers.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.28 DK - 40.89
It’s just hilarious that we are stacking these two loser teams, but things get weird at the end of the NBA season for sure. And we are stuck with trying to figure out just what the hell teams want to do on a game-to-game basis. The Thunder have (mostly) signaled their intentions down the stretch here with Roby playing mid-30s minutes as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Over the last six games, he’s averaging 18 points, eight rebounds, and almost three defensive stats in 33 minutes. Now he’ll get a terrible Lakers team to boot. So things lineup up for him to pile it on even though the price has definitely climbed in the short-term.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.53 DK - 28.56
Who knows if the Lakers go in the same direction on Friday evening, but on Thursday Dwight got the start, played 25 minutes and from a fantasy perspective was more than effective. He finished with a double-double, scoring 16 points and adding 14 rebounds before it was all said and done. At these prices, he’s a great play considering he can pile on fantasy points in shorter stretches as long as he isn’t sharing the court with the Lakers’ superstars, which he won’t be. Keep an eye on what the plan is for the Lakers in this matchup.
Also consider Stanley Johnson (FD 3500 DK 3700) who played a lot of minutes for LA on Thursday, but also stinks.
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