Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic shoots free throws during an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers in Dallas, Thursday, April 22, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
This final week of the NBA season is wild. Did you see that OKC lineup last night? There were players starting in that game that I've never heard of, and I literally cover this sport as my job! That's going to be an issue from here on out because we have tons of teams tanking. This slate could be particularly frustrating, with seven teams in the second half of a back-to-back. That's over half of the teams on this slate, and it's undoubtedly going to lead to some unpredictable chaos.
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 58.6 DK - 62.2
With so much inevitable mayhem on this slate, getting 60 guaranteed DraftKings points from Doncic is the way to go. Saying a guy is guaranteed for 60 fantasy points might sound outlandish, but this guy has a 62-point average over his last 24 games played. It's easy to understand why, flirting with a 40 percent usage rate since Kristaps Porzingis was traded away. He's also shown a 70-point upside on numerous occasions in that span, and we genuinely believe he can reach that here. We say that because he faces a Detroit defense that ranks 19th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive efficiency. In their one matchup earlier this season, Luka had 66 DK points if you needed any more incentive to use him.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 17.27 DK - 17.02
Ish has always been productive when given the opportunity, and it looks like he's the go-to point guard in Washington right now. It started when Bradley Beal got injured, but the Spencer Dinwiddie trade really opened things up. That's led to Smith playing at least 28 minutes in three straight games, scoring at least 22 DraftKings points in five consecutive outings. Those three most recent games have been tremendous, with Smith averaging 36 fantasy points per game in that span. Good luck finding that from another sub-$5K player, especially one that faces the 27th-ranked defense.
Trae Young is an excellent play against a 24th-ranked Wizards defense.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 50.23 DK - 50.89
With Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball expected to miss this game, DeRozan should be in for another one of his masterclass performances. With those two off the floor, DD has a 36 percent usage rate, averaging nearly 1.3 DK points per minute. His consistency is what's truly remarkable, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in 69 of 73 games this season. We love that with his recent form, dropping at least 51 DK points in four of his last five games. A matchup with Boston is obviously challenging, but DeRozan is still averaging 49 fantasy points per game in their two matchups this season.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 21.05 DK - 22.11
Bullock is not the most exciting player to use in DFS, but this guy is playing too much to be this cheap. How often do you see a 40-minute player sit below $5,000? Reggie is playing 36 minutes a night over his last 22 games played, playing at least 37 minutes in nine of those. He's not necessarily the most productive player in those minutes, but he's still averaging 26 fantasy points per game across his last five outings. That's all you can ask for, and it'd be scary to see what sort of line he could put up if he knocks down a handful of threes. Facing Detroit is dandy, too, surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing SGs this season.
Don't forget about Devin Booker, if he plays.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.27 DK - 39.1
Everyone in New York thought Julius Randle would be the future of this team, but Barrett has fans thinking differently. R.J. has actually been one of the best players in the east for a month now, averaging 37 DraftKings points per game across his last 40 games played. The usage is a significant reason why, with RJ averaging 37 minutes and 20 shots a game in that span. Both of those numbers look like his floor right now because he needs to do more with Randle, Kemba Walker, and Derrick Rose all missing this game. We're certainly not worried about him facing the Nets either, with Brooklyn ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and 21st in points allowed.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.28 DK - 26.74
Who knows who's going to play for Oklahoma City? No one does because they could potentially be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Lugentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, Kenrich Williams, Ty Jerome and Tre Mann. All of those guys sat out on Tuesday, and it led to Hoard collecting 24 points, 21 rebounds, three assists, and three steals across 45 minutes. It was his second 20-20 game in the last week, scoring 107 combined DK points in those two outings. That's absurd from a player this cheap, and it makes Hoard worth a shot, even if we don't know who's going to play for the Thunder.
If Aaron Wiggins is starting for OKC, he should be asked to do a ton with all of these guys out.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.67 DK - 33.99
Big Al has quietly been doing big things in Boston this season. Horford is averaging over 29 DK points per game for the year and has been even better since Robert Williams went down. In fact, the big man has at least 34 fantasy points in the three games since that injury and is flirting with a 40-point average when Williams has sat out this season. That's incredible from a $7K player, and we know this guy can stuff the stat sheet when given the opportunity. Squaring off with Chicago isn't too shabby either, with Horford averaging 36 DraftKings points per game in their two matchups this season.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 33.25
We already mentioned that Randle is out for the Knicks, leaving Obi is an outstanding spot. Toppin regularly plays 35-40 minutes in this starting role and is amid the best stretch of his career right now. Obi is averaging 35 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night in his last six starts for Randle. That means Toppin is about $1,000 too cheap on both sites, and the Knicks are going to have a tough time taking him off the floor with so many key players missing. The matchup with Brooklyn is beautiful, too, owning a 21st OPRK against opposing PFs this season.
Kevin Durant dropped 77 DK points the last time he faced the Knicks if you have the salary.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 45.71 DK - 45.86
There's been a ton of talk in the media about how little Rudy has been touching the ball this season, but Tuesday is hopefully a sign of things to come. The big man gobbled up 22 points and 21 rebounds, marking his fifth straight game with at least 39 fantasy points. That's actually right below his season average, with Rudy registering a 41-point average for the season. His league-leading rebounding has given him one of the highest floors in the NBA, too, and that's scary against an OKC team that had the worst frontcourt in the NBA before they decided to start resting everyone. In their three matchups this season, Gobert is averaging 14.3 points, 18.3 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game!
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.05 DK - 35.59
The only thing that keeps Drum from being a fantasy monster are his minutes. The good news is that he's a 25-minute guy in Brooklyn, averaging 33 DK points per game across 24 minutes a night over his last 13 games played. That's one of the best rates you'll see, and it'd be scary to see what sort of line he'd post in a modest 30 minutes. That sort of production is excellent from a $6K player, especially one who snatches up rebounds and defensive stats at ease. He's crushed the Knicks all year, too, averaging 14.3 points, 18 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks across 29 minutes in their last three matchups.
Mitchell Robinson should be asked to do more with Randle out as well.
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