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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 4/3/22
We're down to just one week in the regular season. This is always one of the most chaotic times to play DFS, with bad teams tanking and good teams resting their best players. We have a ton of that going on here, with 12 games in total. That means we have a massive player pool to break down, but it also means we have a ton of value as well. With that in mind, let's kick things off with some point guards.
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Point Guard
Dejounte Murray FD - $10300 DK - $11200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0
Tre Jones FD - $3700 DK - $4200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.54 DK - 25.45
We absolutely love Dejonute if he can return here, but Jones would be a brilliant fill-in if he can't. Let's start by talking about Murray, with the All-Star averaging 21.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 9.3 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. That's led to Dejonute scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in 18 of his last 19 games. He's also averaging nearly 55 fantasy points per game in that span, making him a worthy option no matter the salary. Tre hasn't been quite as good, but he's been awesome when filling in. In fact, Jones has at least 27 DK points in six of his seven starts for Dejounte, posting a 32-point average in that span. That's ridiculous from a $4K player, and we love whoever starts at PG for this speedy San Antonio team. The matchup with Portland is the best part of this, though, with the Trail Blazers ranked 28th in points allowed and dead-last in defensive efficiency.
Chris Paul FD - $8000 DK - $8200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 42.2 DK - 43.3
Phoenix is choosing to rest some players here, but CP3 is not one of them. The Point God obviously wants to get some extra minutes with all the time he missed because of a hand issue, and it's going to have him running the offense here. The Suns have ruled out Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder, leaving CP3 with the offense in his hands. That's scary with how good he's been with all of those guys, averaging 41 DraftKings points per game for the season. We truly believe he's a 50-point player in this expanded role, and we certainly don't anticipate an OKC team that's missing half of their roster to slow him down.
Davion Mitchell has been excellent since taking over starting point guard duties in the absence of De'Aaron Fox.
Shooting Guard
Caris LeVert FD - $5400 DK - $6500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.17 DK - 35.16
The Cavaliers are limping to the finish line, but it's giving LeVert a chance to run this offense. They're currently missing Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Collin Sexton, forcing LeVert into the starting lineup. That's led to Caris collecting at least 29 DK points in four of his last five games, dropping a 40-point masterpiece in Cleveland's most recent outing. He's shown that ability throughout his career, making it hard to believe that he's hovering around $6,000 on both sites. Facing Philly is no easy task, but he has at least 27 DK points in their two matchups last month.
D'Angelo Russell FD - $5300 DK - $6700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.53 DK - 32.08
Talk about some strange pricing. There's no doubt that Russell has struggled over the last two weeks, but he's way too talented to be this cheap. How often do you see a guy who's averaging 36 DK points per game being priced around $6K? That alone makes Russell an intriguing option, with D-Lo scoring at least 33 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. The upside is too high for him to be this cheap, and we couldn't ask for a better matchup. Not only does Houston rank second in pace, but they also sit 29th in defensive efficiency and dead-last in points allowed. In their two meetings this season, D-Lo is averaging 45 fantasy points per game!
Paul George is back and running this Clippers offense beautifully.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $10600 DK - $11300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 52.48 DK - 53.54
Can we talk about how crazy this guy is? I'm 30-years-old and have been playing basketball multiple times a week for the last decade, and I'm in amazement when I think what this guy is doing after 20 years in the NBA. I can't imagine the things this guy plays through, and he's currently in line to land a scoring title. He's been doing most of that damage in the second half, averaging 32.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks over his last 38 games played. That equates to a 56-point average, scoring at least 43 DK points in all but two of those! We're certainly not worried about him facing Denver either, owning a 22nd OPRK against opposing SFs this season.
CJ Elleby FD - $4300 DK - $5000
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 31.94 DK - 33.86
Elleby probably won't drop 50 for you, but this guy is one of the best bets out there to reach 5X value. We say that because he's one of the only Portland players remaining. The Trail Blazers are currently without Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, and Trendon Watford. That's led to Elleby scoring at least 25 DK points in five of his last seven games, playing nearly 30 minutes a night in that span. That's all you can ask for from such an affordable player, and he should be able to keep that form going against the Spurs. San Antonio sits third in pace and 24th in total defense.
Anthony Edwards could go nuts against a terrible Rockets defense.
Power Forward
Al Horford FD - $6400 DK - $6900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.2 DK - 33.6
Big Al has quietly had a resurgent season in Boston, and they need him to do more with Robert Williams out for the next month. Horford has scored at least 37 DK points in the last two games without Rob-Will, averaging over 35 fantasy points per game without him this season. It's easy to see why, with Horford's minutes, rebounds, and shot attempts all on the rise without the defensive stud in the lineup. He's actually scored at least 30 DK points in 13 of the 15 games Williams has missed, reaching 40-plus in many of those. He should be able to duplicate that against Washington, with the Wizards ranked 25th in defensive efficiency ratings. Big Al has at least 42 DK points in two of their three meetings this season, if you needed any more incentive to use him!
Chuma Okeke FD - $4100 DK - $4800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 26.26
Orlando is one of the favorites to land the top pick in the draft, and they're finally embracing the tank! They've been hesitant for most of the season, but it looks like they could sit Wendell Carter Jr, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Franz Wagner here. That's the whole starting lineup, guaranteeing Chuma a 30-minute role. This guy has been outstanding in that expanded role all season, with Okeke averaging 31 DK points per game in the 16 outings he's played at least 30 minutes. That seems like a near lock with so many players missing, and it makes him one of the best values out there below $5K. Not to mention, New York is likely to keep this game close with their poor play, limiting any blowout potential.
With so many Phoenix players resting, Cameron Johnson could be looking at a big night.
Center
Mo Bamba FD - $5400 DK - $6400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.42 DK - 33.22
We like Bamba for all the same reasons we love Chuma. We already talked about how many pieces Orlando will be missing but Carter being out is the big one for Bamba. Mo is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game when WCJ is out of the lineup, taking over at the center position. That's certainly been the case recently, with Bamba scoring at least 43 DK points in two of his last four games. He's also playing over 30 minutes a night in this expanded role which is scary since Bamba is averaging 38 DK points per game in the 21 outings he's played at least 30 minutes. If all of those guys are out, 30 minutes should be his floor. All of that means he should be $8K on both sites if all of those players are out, making Mo the best center option on the board.
JaVale McGee FD - $3600 DK - $3800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.16 DK - 34.7
With Ayton, Booker, and Crowder all being rested, McGee could get a start at center here. He was actually battling Jalen Smith for minutes in this role earlier in the season, but it's just him and Bismack Biyombo now. That's great news with JaVale's per-minute averages, providing 21 DK points per game across 15 minutes a night for the year. Doubling both of those seems like a possible outcome here, which means we could be looking at 35-45 fantasy points. If you get that from a sub-$4K player, you've found the most optimal play on the board. The matchup with OKC is cherry on top, though, with the Thunder owning the worst frontcourt in the NBA.
We love Karl-Anthony Towns and Alperen Sengun facing each other in that tasty Minnesota-Houston matchup.
