San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray (5) during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Sacramento Kings, Thursday, March 3, 2022, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 54.75 DK - 57.67
The Spurs find themselves in the craziest spot right now. Because the Lakers have been horrific, San Antonio now is in the 10th seed, currently in the play-in game if the season ended today. By the looks of things, they are going to try to make it. Murray has played 38 or more minutes in each of the last three games, a clear indication that Pop and company are going to try to make this happen. And on a per minute basis, this is one of the best fantasy performers we have going this season. He’s nearly averaging a triple-double on the season with 21 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.4 assists while also piling on steals at times. Oh, and they play the Blazers who are basically the worst team in the NBA right now.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.62 DK - 34.62
The Grizzlies are sitting Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams in this game meaning there will be quite a bit of opportunity from some others in the lineup. It could also mean they get completely blown out by Phoenix, though the latter is currently just -7.5 road favorites against Memphis. Melton should grab the start here at point guard and has shown he can pile up stats even in limited run. Over the last six games, playing an average of just 23 minutes, Melton is averaging 20 points and five rebounds. If we push the run to even around 30 he’s a cash game play even at middle-tier pricing.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 34.96 DK - 37.65
With the Thunder completely in the tank, they are sitting nearly anyone with the real NBA chops, and it’s hit the backcourt particularly hard. But from a fantasy perspective, we can definitely still live with some of these plays. Maledon for instance has been good in the short term since taking over in the starting role four games ago. In that stretch, he’s averaging 22 points, six rebounds, and six assists in just about 35 minutes per game. We can definitely live with that production even though the price has climbed a decent amount in the last week. The minutes should still be there in the mid-to-high 30s especially if OKC can keep it even a little close against Detroit.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 43.9 DK - 47.17
Though it’s probably too late for him to truly enter the Rookie of the Year discussion with Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes out ahead of him there, Cade is putting together a late-season push that’s reminding us why he was the number one overall draft pick. He single-handedly kept the Pistons in the game against the Nets and then helped Detroit upset the 76ers on Thursday. He’s taking a ton of shots (about 20 per game over the last four) and been able to keep the assist numbers high as well. You have to love the matchup against the tanking Thunder as well.
Davion Mitchell (FD 7300 DK 8000) is still a value with this matchup against the Rockets and considering how much the Kings are running him at the point.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.55 DK - 34.45
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.68 DK - 33.93
It’s a little tough to know exactly how the Grizzlies want to take things here. With Jones, Bane, and Adams out they could just punt it with the backups and call it a day. That would probably take these guys completely out of play. But if they try to hang even with a lot of the B team then these two become very interesting. One would have to think that Brooks leads the team in shot attempts considering who is off the court for Memphis and he projects as the highest usage guy for the team.
And then there is Anderson who should see a bunch of minutes at the 3-4 with Jaren Jackson Jr. out of the mix. Memphis is going full skeleton crew here. Anderson is a bit more speculative considering they’ve never seemed to want to run him a ton of minutes even when they’ve been a bit short on players. But from a per-minute standpoint, he is coming too cheap as long as he’s in the starting lineup. This is a situation we are definitely going to need to monitor heading into lineup lock.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.76 DK - 34.81
It can sometimes be tough trusting the secondary pieces for the Nuggets because really no one has been all that consistent on the fantasy front for this team outside of Jokic. But recently, Barton has been playing a ton of minutes in really important games for this team. The price hasn’t totally caught up with the opportunity. He’s run 34 or more minutes in four of the last five games with 18 points, five rebounds, and six assists per game in that stretch. That’s easily paying the day at the sub-$6K prices on both sites. It should be the case again for Barton in this one considering there is a lot of incentive for the Nuggets to go all-out for the win over Minnesota.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 63.19 DK - 68.28
There are a number of ways to spend all the way up on this slate and Jokic might be the best of them. In three games against the Timberwolves this season, Jokic is averaging 25 points, 15 rebounds, and nine assists, the latter two above his season averages. This game has the highest total of the slate and could be an up-and-down affair leaving Jokic plenty of volume to hit value at these prices. He’s about as expensive as they come, but it’s for good reason. And this late in the season with teams all over the map in terms of who is playing, there will be plenty of ways to save. It helps that the Nuggets are still fighting to stay out of the play-in and a win here against Minny would all but shore that up. So the motivation is there as well.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.11 DK - 37.2
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.14 DK - 36.63
The Kings are a mess this season, that much is known (and really nothing much has changed). But they are playing out the string to finish things off and Barnes is still running a decent amount of minutes with lineups they have left. He’s played 35 or more minutes in four of the last five games, putting up 16 points, four rebounds, and a couple of assists in that stretch. Now he gets the best DFS matchup out there in the Rockets in a game that should be up and down the court. I like the FanDuel price considerably more than the DraftKings one and he can slot in at a weaker SF position. I don’t think there is tons of upside, but he should have a decent floor at this price point.
Meanwhile, Lyles can be a bit hit or miss along these lines, though he’s shown the ability to pile on the points when things are going right. Last game he dropped 24 points and seven rebounds against this same Rockets team, and three games ago he spiked 18 rebounds. So it’s there for him for sure though the inconsistency has been what keeps the price in check.
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