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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 3/30/22
This is my favorite time to play NBA DFS. There are numerous teams tanking and tons of strange rotations, but it caters beautifully to people who actually pay attention. We know that includes our readers because you guys are some of the best players in the industry. It's been one of my best weeks of the year, too, and I'm excited to keep that rolling here!
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Point Guard
Trae Young FD - $10000 DK - $11000
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 54.62 DK - 59.11
Trae has quietly had a fantastic season in Atlanta, and he's going to have to do even more with John Collins and De'Andre Hunter expected to miss this game. He already had a usage rate north of 30 percent before that, and he's regularly taking 20 shots and 10 free throws a night. That's led to Trae scoring at least 27 fantasy points in every game this season, cracking 37 or more DK points in all but five outings. That's scary since he's got a 52-point average over his last 10 games, playing some of the best basketball of his career. We certainly don't anticipate Oklahoma City to slow him down, and we'll mention how bad their roster looks in the subsequent SG write-ups.
Tyus Jones FD - $5800 DK - $5700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 33.53 DK - 33.67
It's sad that Ja Morant is sidelined, but Tyus has been terrific when filling in for him this season. In his 20 starts for Morant, Jones is averaging 29 DK points per game across 30 minutes a night. He's been doing that damage despite the Grizzlies blowing teams out on a nightly basis, making him a good bet for 35-40 DK points if they finally have a game that stays close. We love that since San Antonio is playing really well right now, but they're really struggling on the defensive end. In fact, the Spurs sit third in pace and 24th in total defense while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
Brandon Williams is the only player left in Portland and should be a silly season darling from here on out.
Shooting Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $10400 DK - $12000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 56.81 DK - 60.79
We're cheating a bit to get Doncic in here, but if you're not using positional eligibility in your favor, you're doing it wrong anyway. Doncic is shooting guard eligible, and it's always nice to get as many point guards in there as possible. What makes Doncic so dangerous is his usage rate, generating a 37 percent usage rate with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor this season. That's led to one of the best stretches of his career, averaging 62 DraftKings points per game across his last 24 outings. A matchup with Cleveland is no easy task, but this defense is a shadow of itself with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley both missing. In their one matchup earlier this season, Luka had a 25-point triple-double.
Aaron Wiggins FD - $4700 DK - $4600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 23.74 DK - 24.16
To say Oklahoma City's roster is a mess would be a drastic understatement. They're expected to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, Darius Bazley, Kenrich Williams, Ty Jerome, and Derrick Favors. That was essentially the whole rotation at the beginning of the year, and it's left Wiggins with all he can handle. In the first game without all those guys, Aaron amassed 42.3 DK points across 40 minutes of play. The simple fact is, he should be a lock for 40 minutes and 20 shots, making him impossible to fade below $5,000. Not to mention, the Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency ratings this season.
D'Angelo Russell is just $6K on both sites and can easily play at a $9K level on any given night.
Small Forward
Lauri Markkanen FD - $5900 DK - $6500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.64 DK - 32.57
We mentioned that Mobley and Allen are both out for the Cavs, and it's leading this Cavaliers frontcourt in shambles. In any case, it's going to guarantee Markkanen one of the most prominent roles of his career. Not only do we expect a bump in his rebounding, but he should see an increase in usage, shot attempts, and minutes played as well. That's big news for a guy who's already rolling, wth Markkanen maintaining a 32-point average over his last 11 games played. We genuinely believe that will be his floor in this expanded role, and we love that Lauri had 24 points and eight rebounds in his one matchup with the Mavericks earlier this season.
Dillon Brooks FD - $5900 DK - $6200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 33.26 DK - 33.63
Jones is the direct beneficiary of Morant being sidelined, but Brooks is the one who sees the most significant bump. This guy has always been known for his volume, and we love that since he's got a 29 percent usage rate with Ja off the floor this season. He's averaging about 0.7 shots per minute when Ja is sidelined, making him an excellent bet for 20-25 shots. He hasn't been too productive since returning from his injury, but that has lowered his price tag by about $1,000. That's too much in this expanded role, particularly since San Antonio is one of the most sensational matchups in the NBA.
Keon Johnson should play 35-40 minutes for a putrid Portland team, making him a good value south of $5K.
Power Forward
Kevin Love FD - $5300 DK - $6900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.55 DK - 43.51
This is slightly risky because we never really know how much Love will play, but we must assume he's a good bet for 30-35 minutes here. That's great with the way he's been producing this season, averaging 27 DraftKings points per game across 22 minutes a night. If you look at the 31 games he's played at least 23 minutes, Love is averaging 33 fantasy points per game. That seems like an easy accomplishment with Mobley and Allen both out, leaving Love with a monster role. The one spot you can exploit Dallas is in their frontcourt, too, and Love should have no problem opposing guys like Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell.
Chuma Okeke FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.14 DK - 28.61
It seems like Orlando is finally ready to embrace the tank. They've already ruled out Wendell Carter Jr for this game, leaving Okeke with a 30-minute starting role. He's been awesome whenever given this sort of opportunity, with Chuma averaging 29 DK points per game in the 25 games he's played at least 26 minutes. He's actually flirting with a 40-point average if you get north of 30 minutes, and that sort of upside makes Okeke one of the best value plays around $5,000. It's not like Washington is a worrisome matchup either, with the Wizards ranked 25th in defensive efficiency.
Isaiah Roby just dropped 55 DK points on Monday and should play massive minutes for a shorthanded OKC team.
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $11400 DK - $12400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 60.49 DK - 62.34
Let's be frank for a second. If you're not using Jokic on every slate, you're losing money. This is simply the best option in fantasy, leading the NBA with 61 DraftKings points per game. His floor is the most absurd thing when considering Nikola, scoring at least 41 DK points in all but one game this season. He's been in the optimal lineup in seemingly every slate he's in, and it's easy to understand why. That floor and production are even more critical at this time of the year because there's so much value out there with so many teams tanking. That means it's much easier to get The Joker into your lineup and pairing him with cheap value plays is the optimal strategy right now. He should continue that absurd form against Indiana, with the Pacers ranked 25th in points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Mo Bamba FD - $5600 DK - $6000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 36.33 DK - 37.17
With Carter expected to miss this game, it looks like Bamba will be in for a big night. WCJ has been swallowing up all of the usage, shots, and rebounds in Orlando, but Mo should be asked to take on that role in his absence. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 1.1 DK points per minute for the season, playing even better when given monster minutes. If you look at the 35 games Mo has played at least 26 minutes, he's averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game. In the last three games Carter has sat, Bamba has scored at least 31 DK points in each en route to a 38-point average. All of that is wonderful against Washington, with the Wizards surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. In their two matchups this season, Bamba is averaging 12 points, 13 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game!
With Robert Williams out, don't forget about Al Horford.
