Corey Conners (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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TPC San Antonio
Par 72 - 7,435 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Scottie Scheffler stayed red-hot last week with a huge win at the WGC Dell Match Play, his third win in five starts. The good news for the field this week is that he has already withdrawn and for good reason as he has top form with the Masters coming up next week. Rory Mcilroy(#9) headlines the field as the only player in the field currently ranked Top 10 and joining him at the top are Bryson DeChambeau(#14) coming off an early exit at the match play and Hideki Matsuyama who has skipped the last two events with an injury as he prepares to defend his Masters' title.
That's right, we are only one week away from the greatest golf tournament on the planet, and leading into it the talk of Tiger Woods possible return might actually overshadow the event in Texas. While I will be closely tracking that like my crypto portfolio in a bull market, I will also be playing a ton of DFS this week to help boost the bankroll and more importantly grab a few more Milli Maker tickets for the big dance!
The field, this week, will take on TPC San Antonio which has proved to be a tough test and worthy event leading up to a major and reason we see some top players still in the field. The course has ranked as a Top 10 hardest course(non-major) on tour in three of the last four years. A lot of that difficulty comes with length as two of the Par 3's over 200 yards(207/241) and three of the four Par 5's are over 590 yards(two over 600). When looking at the past two years here, the highest correlated stat when breaking it all down has been Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and no event in recent history, when researching this has from a statcast perspective, has been so close when looking at SG: Off the Tee vs. SG: Approach. Overall, I will be looking for players who are trending in terms of form in these areas and it is a bonus if those players also have some experience and/or top course history here at TPC San Antonio.
With that said, let's take a look at a few picks for this week, and don't forget to join the live show on Tuesday night @ 9:00 pm ET.
Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#32)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($9,800)
FanDuel ($11,600)
I am going with a much more balanced approach this week due to some question marks up top including Matsuyama returning from injury and Bryson just one week removed from a return from an injury. Conners opened tied for 3rd in odds to win this event while sitting 6th in DraftKings pricing and is coming off a terrific week at the Match Play where he took home 3rd after going 6-1-0 on the week. I also mentioned the importance of ball striking this week and almost no one stands out more than Conners who is 6th on my sheet(large sample size) and 3rd when looking at the last 24 rounds(via FNGC). I look for him to continue the hot play as he returns to TPC San Antonio where he won back in 2019 and also finished T14 last year. All things considered, the Canadian is on my radar in all formats this week, especially on DraftKings under $10K.
Chris Kirk
World Golf Ranking (#85)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($9,400)
FanDuel ($10,500)
Despite the missed cut at the Players a few weeks ago, Kirk comes into this week with excellent form having picked up Top 15 finishes at his three previous events(WMPO, Honda, API). he has also been a stats darling in that time having gained strokes both off the tee and on approach together in five straight events and has gained strokes in all strokes gained categories in three of his last four events. It is perfect timing for said form as he returns to the Valero Texas Open where he has Top 10's in two of his last three trips and has finished T13 or better in four of his last six trips going back to 2015. I will have exposure in all formats.
Gary Woodland
World Golf Ranking (#92)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($10,800)
When looking at the odds to salary differential tool, Woodland is favored over Kirk on all sites but sits just one spot(#5) behind Kirk in my overall rankings. He is another addition to my balanced core this week and like the two above, he checks all the boxes starting with course history as he finished T6 here last year after not playing since 2015 when he finished T26. The ball striking overall hasn't been as good as those I already mentioned but the irons have been on as he has gained strokes in that area in four straight events(10.3 total) which has led to a T5 at the Honda, T5 at the Arnold Palmer, MC at the Players, and a T21 bounce back at the Valspar. While I prefer the other two slightly more for DFS this week, I will have stacks of all three and love betting Woodland outright at his current number around 35-1.
Martin Laird
World Golf Ranking (#139)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Another player is on the positive when looking at the odds to salary differential tool is former winner, Martin Laird. I get it. He is coming off two straight missed cuts but I am willing to overlook that considering his course fit and near-elite course history. He has not only made the cut in seven of his last eight trips but captured the win in 2015 and has finished inside the Top 20 four times. The course fit is something else that jumps off the page as he is accurate off the tee(6th in FW gained last 24 rounds) and on approach(6th in SG: APP last 24 rounds). If he can get the putter going as he usually does here, he could easily exceed his mid-tier price tag. Love it for DFS and also will be looking at a Top 20 bet.
Brian Stuard
World Golf Ranking (#220)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,600)
The course history has been somewhat spotty for Stuard but he has made the cut in four of six events and showed some upside with a T4 in 2019. What I am more interested in this week is the terrific form as he has tallied a Top 25 in four of his last five events and made the cut in seven of his last eight. He has been very accurate off the tee(2nd in FW gained last 12 rounds), above average with his irons(22nd in SG: Approach last 12 rounds), and been very good around the greens(2nd in SG: ATG). Put it all together, and I like the PTS/$ value with Stuard in all formats this week.
Nate Lashley
World Golf Ranking (#306)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($8,200)
While Lashley does not check the course history box(missed cuts both trips), he does check a lot of boxes starting with his form. He is coming off a T15 at the Corales Championship, T27 at the Valspar Championship, and T7 at the Puerto Rico Open. What stands out about those performances and his recent form is that he ranks 98th in putting in that time while ranking 19th in putting on my sheet looking at a much larger sample size. He is also +15 or greater on the odds to salary tool and is one of my favorite value plays of the week.
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