Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic against the Golden State Warriors during an NBA basketball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
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Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 48.69 DK - 54.02
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 53.73 DK - 55.85
We get a big slate on Monday and a huge selection of guards at all price points. Let's start with the top pay-up options and I group these two together as I don't necessarily think you have to choose one or the other and can stack them together as they both face defenses that rank in the bottom five overall.
Let's start with Trae who presents more safety as he absolutely dominates the usage for the Hawks with the fourth-highest rate(34.4%) in the league and 15% higher than any other Hawks projected starter tonight. Going back to the start of February, he has topped 50 DK points in 13 of 23 games and averaged a whopping 55.5 during that time on 19.9 shots, 31.7 points, and 10.6 assists per game.
While Murray isn't quite there in the same range of usage(27.2%) as Trae, he has actually been slightly better in terms of fantasy points per minute(1.48 to 1.4). It comes down to his contributions across the board as he is averaging 23.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 8.7 assists, and 2.1 steals per game going back to the start of February(20 games).
Both players check every single box with elite matchups, projected close/high scoring games, and both are elite plays in all formats.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.06 DK - 40.78
The price has been on the rise and the Warriors face the #2 overall defense tonight but we are definitely going to want some exposure to the Warriors who are sitting practically everyone. The other reason it will be hard to ignore Poole is the fact he has provided a very solid floor while starting each of the last eight games and it starts with usage as he has averaged 19.8 shots per game in that time while putting up 26.1 points per game. With the somewhat capped upside due to price and matchup, I will likely limit Poole to cash game builds tonight as hitting that 5x has not been an issue.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.94 DK - 32.5
While we are on the topic of rising prices and tough matchups, let's mention Davion Mitchell. Despite the knocks against him tonight, he does make a lot of sense as he has been terrific filling in as the starting point guard with Fox out of the lineup. He has started three of the last four games for the Kings and see heavy usage putting up 22, 15, and 23 shots while shooting just under 50% and averaging 44.6 DK/42.9 FD points per game. I will have exposure on both sites but his best value comes on FanDuel where he is still in the mid $6K range.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.21 DK - 33.96
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ruled out Monday, the Thunder will be short-handed at guard leading us to some much-needed value on this larger slate. We also have a nice track record here as Mann has stepped in and has been starting since late January with injuries to Giddey and SGA. In those 26 starts, he has been very consistent getting 12.5 shots per game and even with sub 40% shooting on 12.5 shots per game, he is still averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in that time. He now gets a terrific matchup against the Blazers who are 29th in defense. Fire up Mann in all formats.
Also Consider: Desmond Bane/Tyus Jones(MEM) who have been consistent from a PTS/$ perspective with Ja Morant out of the lineup
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.66 DK - 40.19
The Thunder are very short-handed once again on Monday night and with a plus matchup against the Trail Blazers' 29th ranked defense, it is a great spot to find PTS/$ value. Pokusevski has been terrific when stepping into a starting role all season and has been especially good in the short term. Over his last five games, he is taking around 12.5 shots per game and while he is only averaging 11.8 points on 36.5% shooting, he has added 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists putting his fantasy average in the mid 30's. All things considered, at a tougher position to fill, I will have exposure to Poku in all formats.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 60.73 DK - 65.4
Jokic has been on a campaign all season to be a back-to-back MVP award winner and is a player who we can consider for fantasy night in and night out, regardless of the matchup. Great news here as the Nuggets get one of the best matchups on the board as he faces a Hornets team that is 23rd in defensive efficiency in a game with a monster total(231.5) that is expected to stay close throughout(DEN -3.5). It is a near-perfect scenario but you will have to choose between Jokic and the two guards I mentioned earlier. On DraftKings, with Jokic's price reaching mid $12K range, I am leaning the guards but on FanDuel under $11K, Jokic is close to my favorite overall play tonight.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.06 DK - 33.36
If it's a more balanced approach you are taking, Markkanen has been a solid PTS/$ option in the mid-tier since returning from an ankle sprain in mid-February. In those 15 games, he is getting plenty of work in the offense averaging just over 12 shots per game and converting at a 45% clip for 17.3 points per game From a fantasy perspective, he has dropped 25 or more DK points in 12 of those 15 games and averaged just over 33 per game and that includes three ugly sub-20 fantasy point performances. Fire up Markkanen in all formats.
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