Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (7) passes over Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, April 25, 2021, in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.07 DK - 34.62
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.78 DK - 35.07
With Donovan Mitchell out on Friday, it sure looks like a bulk of the offense is going to flow these guys’ way. It makes sense considering the construction of the roster currently and what we’ve seen out of these situations in the past. While Clarkson might not get the start if the Jazz decide they will need his offense off the bench, he should still see significant minutes in this matchup. He’s played 32 or more in each of the last three in two of those games up monster scoring lines of 45 points and 26 points respectively. That’s important because an overwhelming amount of his fantasy production relies on putting the ball in the hoop.
Meanwhile, Conley has been able to get into the scoring side of things recently after really being on the struggle bus for times this season. He’s averaged 22 points and seven assists this week which is cherrypicked for sure because before that it was looking really bad. He wasn’t hitting threes and really just not looking to get his shot all that often. But the usage definitely climbs with Mitchell off the court this season and we should see the minutes in the low 30s as well considering the situation.
And keep an eye out for Nickeil Alexander-Walker (FD 3500 DK 3100) who actually could draw the start here and is coming basically at the minimums.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.93 DK - 44.78
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 42.81 DK - 44.54
This is just too good of a matchup to pass up with the Pacers facing off against the Houston Rockets. On the season, the Rockets have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opponents. It was by a wide margin though now the Lakers are starting to give them a run for their money. Regardless, the backcourt duo here of Brogdon and Haliburton has a high floor in a game that could be an absolute track meet from start to finish. The 240 total is easily the highest of the slate and the Pacers have the highest implied line of any team going. Though the two guards do cut into each others’ performance some when sharing the court, we’ve seen Brogdon especially able to pay these prices when the minutes are there. He’s still getting up more than 17 shots per game in the short-term and the assists have come when the pace increases.
Meanwhile, Haliburton struggled last time out, but the previous couple of games he shared with Brogdon averaged 17 points, eight assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.5 steals+blocks. The pace of this game and the sloppiness on the other side of the ball should give Haliburton a higher floor even if the price is definitely climbing some. Of the two I prefer Brogdon because he’s cheaper, but it’s just such a great matchup.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 58.09 DK - 61.93
With the Nets still without Kyrie Irving for home games and the team needing to win just about every game from now until the end of the season, Kevin Durant is going to have to continue putting up huge numbers in these situations. Brooklyn has had no problem running him major minutes and that should continue to be the case in close games. While the Nets are -13 home favorites here, it’s a bit tough to trust that considering their current squad. Durant played 40 minutes last time out and over the last seven games is averaging 29 points, 7.4 assists (a welcome sign), and 6.3 rebounds per game. Expect a high usage rate as long as Portland does run doubles at him all game like Dallas did.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.12 DK - 31.66
Meanwhile, don’t look now but Bruce Brown has been pretty freaking good for the Nets over the last couple of weeks. With the team really needing his defense and his Swiss Army knife approach to the game, he’s actually been able to put up numbers on the fantasy side of things. Over the last three, Brown is averaging 14 points, six assists, seven rebounds, and 1.6 blocks+steals. At his price points, he’s looking like a value, especially on DraftKings. The Blazers are still playing their JV squad and Seth Curry could sit again which would likely give Brown more minutes as well.
If Jimmy Butler were to sit then Tyler Herro (FD 7500 DK 7400) and/or Caleb Martin (FD 4200 DK 4100) could look like value plays.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 58.14 DK - 61.19
Embiid has been on a crushing tour of late, clearly into the idea of having James Harden now running the offense. Over the last month, the center has averaged 31 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, and 2.4 blocks+ assists. Those numbers have been even better in the short term. And this matchup is a good one against a Dallas team that doesn’t really have much in the requisite size to deal with Embiid on the interior. He could put up another monster line, rivaling the 27 points and 13 rebounds he put up against them earlier in the season in just 33 minutes. I like him as a pay-up option, especially on DraftKings where there should be plenty of ways to save.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.41 DK - 29.06
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 23.77 DK - 25.77
Isaiah Jackson has already been ruled out of this game which is going to leave some minutes open in the front court for the Pacers. And it couldn’t come at a better time for our DFS needs considering what we are getting against the Rockets in this matchup. Houston allows the most fantasy points per game to opponents this season and make for something of the perfect matchup on slates like this. Goga Bitadze is currently questionable though if he’s cleared he would likely start at center for the Pacers. If that was the case, we could slot him in for at least mid-20s minutes which would be more than enough to hit value on DraftKings where he’s basically a punt play. He’d be an immediate double-double threat against this team.
Meanwhile, if Goga sits we could get Terry Taylor in the starting lineup. Taylor has played front court minutes for this team even at only 6’5 and he’s been able to produce in a big way from a fantasy perspective, going for 15 points and six rebounds per game over the last two when he was given more run. This is a situation we really need to keep and eye on heading into lineup lock. Even Jalen Smith (FD 6100 DK 5700) could join the fray here, though they’ve been mostly wanting to bring him off the bench.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.43 DK - 34.3
The Blazers remain pretty thin in the frontcourt for their currently-tanking team and Eubanks has been able to play steady-ish minutes in the center role since Jusuf Nurkic went down for the season. He’s played 30+ in each of the last three even though the last one was a blowout. That’s a good sign and in that stretch, Eubanks is averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. We will for sure take that kind of production out of a guy priced in the middle tier. The matchup early against Drummond isn’t ideal considering the latter can get on the glass in a big way, but I think Eubanks gets enough run here to justify the price.
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