(AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
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Innisbrook Resort
Par 71 - 7,340 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
It was a wild Players Championship that was extended into Monday but the good news for the players is that Tour stays in Florida this week for the Valspar Championship. The is obviously much weaker this week but still strong at the top led by Collin Morikawa(#2), Viktor Hovland(#3), Justin Thomas(#8), Xander Schauffele(#9), and Duston Johnson(#10) all of whom rank inside the Top 10 in the World.
The 144-man field will tee it up on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort which is a Par 71 that is listed at 7,340 yards on the scorecard. It is another tough test of golf for the field as the course has ranked 14th, 3rd, 4th, 12th, and 3rd hardest courses on Tour(scoring average) of the non-majors/Players Championship. Aiding in that difficulty is the weather and specifically, the wind so make sure to pay close attention to the forecast as lock approaches.
The first thing that stands out with this Par 71 setup is the hole distribution as there are five par 3's with four of them stretching over 200 yards and the fifth at 195 yards. The next thing to note is that even with a Par 71, there are still four Par 5's and some of the most difficult on Tour. With all that said, I am still very high on Par 4 Scoring as it has shown the highest correlation of the three in terms of success and finishing position in this event. With this very much being a position course off the tee, I am also high on Strokes Gained: Approach, and with the longer Par 3's and the likelihood of players putting emphasis on hitting fairways vs distance, I am looking at the long iron Proximity distances in my model.
With all that said, let's look at a few of my top plays for this week.
Viktor Hovland
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($10,800)
FanDuel ($11,900)
Like I mentioned in the opening, the field is weaker overall but the top of the field is stacked so unless you are playing 50-150 lineups, you will have to take a stand somewhere. Fatigue is likely to be discussed for those who played into Monday at the Players but I am not concerned with Hovland who is young and has been elite in the ball striking department lately. During this recent stretch of three straight Top 10's(T9 - Players, T2-API, T4-Genesis) he has gained an average of 10.4 strokes ball-striking per event and leads this field in that department going back to the start of 2021. He finished T3 here last year and I see him carrying over his recent momentum into this week for another top finish and possibly a win. I will have exposure in all formats.
Abraham Ancer
World Golf Ranking (#20)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($10,900)
While Ancer has been consistent in 2022 making five of six cuts, the results have been less than inspiring with no finish better than a T33 but the good news is that it came last week in tough conditions at the Players. More good news for Ancer is that he returns to Innisbrook Resort with finishes of T16(2018) and T5(2021) in two trips and comes in outside the Top 10 in pricing on DraftKings. He fits the course with his accuracy off the tee, strong long-iron game, and ability to avoid bogeys in bunches. All things considered, Ancer is one of my top PTS/$ plays in the top tier and I will have exposure in all formats.
Russell Knox
World Golf Ranking (#167)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($9,800)
The price is back up in the $8K range on DraftKings after an impressive T6 at the Players Championship but if we are looking for top ball striking, we can't ignore Knox. He comes into this week having made five straight cuts, gaining strokes on approach in all five, off the tee in four straight, and ranks 2nd in this field in SG: Ball Striking since the calendar flipped to 2022. If that isn't enough, he now returns to Innisbrook where he has made the cut in six of his last seven trips and has Top 25 finishes in three straight. He checks all the boxes and is a top PTS/$ play for me in all formats.
Keegan Bradley
World Golf Ranking (#66)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($10,000)
Another name that jumps off the page if you are looking at ball striking as he ranks 4th on the sheet(90% this season/10% last season) in that category. He also comes in with some trending form having made the cut in six straight and nine of his last 10 events including a T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T5 at the PLAYERS last week. He has also been consistent here at Innisbrook making the cut at the Valspar in four of his last five trips including a T2 last year where he put on a ball-striking clinic(2nd in the field). At these prices, in a weaker field, I am going full Keegan in all formats.
Denny McCarthy
World Golf Ranking (#148)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,100)
It is very close between Redman and McCarthy in this range but I slightly lean the latter for a couple of reasons starting with safety as he has made 10 of 13 cuts on the season including 10 of his last 11. While the ball striking numbers don't jump off the page, he is very accurate off the tee(20th in FW gained in 2022) and is elite around the green(15th) and on it with the putter(5th). He has also played here twice with a T9 in 2019 and a T39 last year. One of my top values on both sites.
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