Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic shoots free throws during an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers in Dallas, Thursday, April 22, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 57.11 DK - 61.82
I suspect Doncic will be the highest-owned big-money play on this slate and it might not be all that close. He gets the best matchup facing off against the Rockets who have allowed the most opponent fantasy points this season by far, with really only the Kings coming close in that respect. Since the beginning of February, Doncic has been on a tear, averaging 35 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists per game. With Kristaps Porzingis gone, the offense is running even more through him which is really saying something, but his load has almost become easier because the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie to spell Jalen Brunson has allowed Doncic more room to operate. This is an easy play on FanDuel though the DraftKings price does at least make you think.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.94 DK - 31.02
The Pelicans are going to be without both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for this game which should open up plenty of offensive opportunities for Graham who will likely pick up most of the primary ball-handling responsibilities. With those two guys off the court this season, Graham sees a noticeable (about 4% for each) uptick in both usage and assist rate. The price didn’t really adjust at all for what should be a considerable opportunity boost. And this is definitely a pace-up matchup for New Orleans facing off against the Hornets who run the third-fastest in the league.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 43.77 DK - 47.6
As always, the major thing we need to worry about with LaMelo is the minutes. Even in some close games, James Borrego won’t push him over 30+ minutes, and at these prices that can sometimes be an issue. One would think that this matchup would be on the easier side of things, more in line with keeping Ball on the court for minutes in the mid-30s, but we can’t totally trust that at this point. He’s a triple-double threat when the run is there and the FanDuel does make things pretty easy when it comes to his fantasy floor. But I do want to caution just a little on his rotations. That being said, I think we are fine running him here against a depleted Pelicans team.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 43.61 DK - 47.34
The Jazz are still actively fighting for playoff seeding right now, which means we should see plenty of Donovan Mitchell down the stretch. That is going to coincide with the team starting to press Mike Conley’s minutes higher in preparation for the playoffs. Mitchell’s price has dropped some of late with a couple of lackluster games back-to-back in the last two. The three-point shooting is hovering around 30% over the last five as well which has cut into his scoring. But that short-term blip can be to our advantage with the price stagnating. I like the matchup here against the Spurs in a game that has the second-highest total on the slate.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.01 DK - 39.74
Kevin Porter Jr. is technically the Rockets’ point guard, but on some sites, he’s still listed as a small forward so we’ll take it where we can get it. While I would much prefer to play him here if Christian wood were out of the mix, I think I would consider him no matter what. Over the last five games, Porter is averaging 17 points, six assists, and four rebounds, getting up around 15 shots per game. That’s healthy enough usage and the hope here is that the Rockets can at least keep the game close against Luka and company. Keep an eye out for the Wood news as Porter’s usage rate does climb with the big man off the court.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.83 DK - 38.34
I really want to trust Edwards here because the price has dipped so much on FanDuel but it’s not without its risk. He’s been injured for a spell and wasn’t particularly efficient before missing some games. That’s what’s led to the price dip. He’s five for his last 36 from beyond the arc, a brutal stretch of shooting from the second-year, possibly future star. And if the ball isn’t going in the basket you are in trouble on his production because he is pretty scoring dependent. That being said, I’m not going to totally buy into the idea that he simply can’t make a shot anymore and I think we are getting him at a value against the Magic.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 43.86 DK - 47.84
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.2 DK - 29.19
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.62 DK - 28.85
Like we said with Graham, there is going to be a lot of opportunity on the offensive end opening up for the Pelicans here if they are able to hang with the Hornets. The one-point spread would suggest that’s going to be the case and if so then we are getting excellent value on both of these guys. With Ingram out of the lineup this season the team has really turned to Valanciunas for the offensive workload and he has the highest usage rate (27%) on the team in these scenarios. He should get fed the ball early and often in this game and we could see a spike in minutes as well. The price has not adjusted for how the Pelicans are likely to shift their approach.
And Hayes could be in line for some more minutes as well. New Orleans has been favoring a double-big approach to their starting lineup of late and Hayes has been playing minutes in the mid-to-high 20s. That could tick up a bit here as well. He’s been solid if unspectacular, but the rate stats could see a bump with both Ingram and McCollum out of the mix. The price is worth the risk.
And then there is Herbert Jones who could see a ton of run in this game if things stay close. The Pelicans are already short on wings and now have lost two of their starters which could lead to Jones pushing up around 40 minutes if things break right. Heck, this is a team that’s about to roll Tony Snell out in the starting lineup. Jones has the chance to get up double-digit shot attempts in this one considering the Pelicans’ lack of firepower and they will need his defense as well. I like the price on both sites all things considered.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 43.84 DK - 45.04
I think Rudy Gobert is firmly in play on both sites, and frankly might be a lock on DraftKings. He’s essentially a double-double machine and the bonus on DK is all but assured with the way he puts up fantasy points. The matchup against the Spurs is an interesting one in that Poeltl is a very good defender, but that doesn’t cut all that much into how Gobert goes about scoring his fantasy points. I think the pace of the game, if it stays close, is more than enough to give him a bump in production and make these prices look awfully low.
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