Daily Fantasy NASCAR Preview & Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Ruoff Mortgage 500 @ Phoenix Raceway

Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and top targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. He also provides a comprehensive cheatsheet looking at current and career track history, current form, fantasy averages, trends, practice/qualifying information, and then puts it all together with a customizable model. Get your copy by visiting our "Chris's DFS Sheets" page.

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Track Information

Phoenix Raceway 
Track - 1.022 Mile Tri-Oval Short Track
11° of Banking in Turns 1 & 2
9° of Banking in Turn 3 & 4

Last Six Winners at Phoenix

• 2021 Championship Race - Kyle Larson(started 1st)
• 2021 Spring Race - Martin Truex Jr(started 5th)
• 2020 Championship Race - Chase Elliott(started 1st)
• 2020 Spring Race - Joey Logano(started 13th)
• 2019 Playoff Race - Denny Hamlin(started 3rd)
• 2019 Spring Race - Kyle Busch(started 4th)

This week NASCAR heads to Phoenix Raceway for the fourth race of the season and fifth different track type for the new car(counting the Clash @ the Coliseum). This is also a huge week for teams and their notebooks as this will be the third straight season with Phoenix raceway hosting the Championship Race. The track is a 1.022-mile Tri-Oval short track with 11 degrees of banking in turns 1 & 2 and 9 degrees of banking in turns 3 & 4. Also of note, when breaking down track history, is that the track was reconstructed after the spring race in 2018 with the start/finish line being moved from the backstretch to the entry of the dogleg(old turn 2).

One thing that hasn't changed over the years at Phoenix is the importance of track position as it ranks 1st, 1st, 4th in my model looking at the correlation of qualifying positon and finishing position over the last 2, 5, and 10 races at all tracks. The only race that has seen a correlation under .500 since the reconfiguration was the first race after which was the playoff race in 2018 and it was insane with six accidents including nine cars.

When looking at dominator points, there have been multiple drivers to lead 50+ laps in each of the last 10 races, and in the seven races since the reconfiguration, there have been three drivers to lead 50+ laps four times. If you are looking for a driver to lead 10o or more it has happed in six of seven races since the reconfiguration with two drivers leading 100 or more twice.

With all that said, let's go over a few drivers who are on my early radar for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Then stay tuned during and following practice for updates to the sheet along with my top plays and rankings. I also do a live show on Sunday mornings on my YouTube channel so make sure to tune in to find out my final strategies and picks.

Targets

Kyle Larson

He didn't dominate last week which kept him out of optimal lineups but he remained red-hot with five wins and a runner-up in his last eight races including the championship win here at Phoneix in November. He has excellent track history overall, as well, placing 7th or better in six straight but as the most expensive driver in the field, it comes down to dominator points. Stay tuned for practice/qualifying.

Martin Truex Jr.

Truex ranks #1 in my early model which I love considering he is sixth in pricing on DraftKings this week. He has been consistent here over the years with the third-best average finish(8.6) in the last 10 races at Phoenix and was nearly flawless in 2021 winning the spring race and finishing runner-up to Larson in the finale. He is also coming off his first Top 10 of the season and has been at least consistent so far finishing 13th or better in all three races.

Kevin Harvick

We can't talk consistency at Phoenix without mentioning Kevin Harvick. He hasn't won here since the spring race in 2018 but returns to the track with 17 straight Top 10 finishes, a streak that started with four straight wins from 2013 to 2015. He and the #4 team haven't been great to start the season but rebounded from their 30th at Daytona with a 7th at Fontana and 12th at Vegas. As the 9th most expensive driver on both sites, Harvick will be in my player pool regardless of starting position it will just be a matter of how much.

Aric Almirola

The likely chalk of the Stewart-Haas team will be Almirola who has been extremely consistent to start his final season and is the only driver with a Top 10 in all three races. He now returns to Phoenix which is his best track based on the numbers as he returns with a 14.2 career average finish and 9.3 average finish over the last nine races here including a 6th and 11th last season. He is nearly priced out on FanDuel after a $2K+ price increase but still a great value on DraftKings as the price only went up $100 and is still in the sub $8K range.

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