Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) during an NBA basketball game, Thursday, March 3, 2022 in Boston. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Last night was a fantastic night of basketball. Right when I thought I never wanted to see the Lakers again, LeBron James reminded me why he's the greatest player of our generation. His 56 points were a pleasure to watch and nights like those remind you how special this sport can be. We likely won't get anything like that here, but we do have eight games making up this Sunday card.
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Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.4 DK - 39.48
This DraftKings price is nuts, but Reggie has earned every bit of it with his ravishing play. He had 36 points, eight rebounds, and nine assists in the most recent game, giving him a 40-point average over his last nine outings in total. It's easy to understand why he's been so productive when looking at his role, taking over this offense in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Norman Powell. In this expanded role, Reggie is averaging about 35 minutes, 20 shots, and a 30 percent usage rate. That's all you can ask for, and it should be easy to continue here with New York ranked 19th in defensive efficiency ratings.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 33.23
With Fred VanVleet likely missing another game, Flynn should get another start at point guard for Toronto. He's been tremendous in this role, scoring at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his four starts. The simple fact is, the Raptors aren't taking this guy off the floor with FVV sidelined, playing 36 minutes a game in this newfound role. Getting a 34-point floor and 36 minutes is more indicative of an $8K player, and it makes Flynn one of the best values on both sites. Cleveland is definitely no easy matchup, but it really doesn't matter if Malachi continues to play 35-40 minutes at this price.
Ja Morant has been averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game for a month now and gets the best matchup in fantasy basketball.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.56 DK - 35.78
We just discussed how VanVleet is likely out for Toronto, but he's not the only one missing. OG Anunoby has been ruled out for the next two weeks, leaving this roster extremely thin. This team was running a seven-man rotation with the starters playing 40 minutes a night, so it's scary to think what this rotation could look like with two of those players missing. Trent will definitely step up as one of the primary scorers, averaging 18 shots across 36.4 minutes a night over his last 19 games played. He's been doing damage with that usage, posting a 33-point average in that span.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 20.67 DK - 20.53
This is a risky play, but someone needs to step up in Utah with Mike Conley sitting. It was Forrest in the past, and we're going to gamble that it's him once again. Looking at the last three games Forrest has started, he's averaging 28 DraftKings points per game. More importantly, he's playing 37 minutes a night! If you get a sub-$4K player playing 40 minutes, you've stumbled into the most optimal play on the slate. The matchup with Oklahoma City only adds to his intrigue, with the Thunder surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. There's also severe blowout potential in this game, too, and that would add even more value to Forrest because he won't come off the floor in that circumstance.
Desmond Bane sits below $6K on both sites and has played at a $7K level for most of the season.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.54 DK - 54.07
With Jaylen Brown likely missing another game, it's time for Tatum to run the show for the Celtics. With JB off the floor this season, JT leads the team with a 36 percent usage rate while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. Those are absurd numbers, and it's on full display when you see that Tatum is averaging 35 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in his last two games without Brown. You know JT will be motivated against a team like Brooklyn, too, with Tatum tallying 30 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in this matchup just last month. That's no surprise when you see that the Nets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency ratings.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.83 DK - 35.64
We already mentioned how Toronto plays a thin rotation and are missing two starters, leaving all of these Raptors players as some of the best options on the board. This rookie might be the best per-dollar play of the bunch, averaging 33 DK points per game for the season. We genuinely believe that number is his floor in this expanded role, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He's quite simply one of the best stat-stuffers in the NBA, and that will always make him intriguing with a 40-minute role. Someone who stuffs the stat sheet can be a better option in a stricter matchup, too, with Barnes amassing 37.3 DK points in their last matchup with the Cavs, despite shooting below 40 percent from the field.
Marcus Morris is one of the focal points of this shorthanded Clippers offense and remains way too affordable.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 44.53 DK - 44.68
Let's cap off our Toronto stack with their best player. Siakam has actually been one of the most reliable options in the NBA, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in 42 of his last 45 games played. He's flirting with a 50-point average in that span, playing nearly 40 minutes a night. That's scary since his role will be on the rise here, with Anunoby and FVV expected to sit again. He's got a 33 percent usage rate with those two guys off the floor, and it would be impossible to fade with that usage and workload in his favor. He also crushed Cleveland in their most recent meeting, collecting 25 points, five rebounds, and four assists.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 28.12 DK - 28.2
Oklahoma City fans have been waiting for Poku to be productive, and they're finally getting their wish. What's allowed him to be so good recently are the injuries in OKC, with Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Ty Jerome, Mike Muscala, Derrick Favors, and James Robinson-Earl all nicked up. That's left Poku with the most prominent role of his career, playing at least 26 minutes in three straight games. That directly correlates with his insertion into the starting lineup, generating a 31-point average in that span. If you get that from a $5,300 player, you're way ahead of the pack!
Jaxson Hayes has been starting for New Orleans and remains below $5K on both sites.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 39.72 DK - 40.91
It's hard to get excited about Ayton when looking at his recent numbers, but we have to believe he's going to go off one of these days. This is not the "He's Due" narrative either, because Phoenix needs him to step up in the absence of Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Those are the two primary playmakers, making DA the focal point of this offense. If you take out the game where Ayton got injured, he's averaging 34 DK points per game across 30 minutes a night. That 41-game sample size is hard to overlook, and we truly believe he's going to drop a 50-spot sooner rather than later. Ayton's eyes light up when he faces the Bucks, too, scoring at least 39 DraftKings points in six of his last eight meetings, dating back to last season.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.05 DK - 27.36
This guy can be frustrating because of his volatility, but the big games make him tough to avoid. He's scored at least 45 DK points in four of his last 11 games, providing a 32-point average in that span. That upside and average are crazy totals from a sub-$6K player, and it looks like he's going to be asked to do more in the absence of Nerlens Noel. Getting to face the Clippers might be the best part of this, though, with LA owning one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA. That's crystal clear when you see that they possess a 21st OPRK against opposing centers this season.
If you have the salary, Nikola Jokic is obviously an excellent choice with his 40-point floor.
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