Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Arnold Palmer Invitational

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The Course

Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Par 72 - 7,454 Yards
Greens - Bermuda

**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

Previous Five Winners

• 2021 - Bryson DeChambeau(-11)
• 2020 - Tyrrell Hatton(-4)
• 2019 - Francesco Molinari(-12)
• 2018 - Rory McIlroy(-18)
• 2017 - Marc Leishman(-11)

This week a loaded PGA Tour field heads to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The biggest news of the week was the Monday WD from defending champion Bryson DeChambeau who is dealing with a Saudi League conspiracy wrist injury. The good news is that we still get four of the Top 10 and 31 of the Top 50 players in the world including World #1 Jon Rahm making his debut at this event.

The field will take on Bay Hill(Par 72 - 7,454 yards) which is one of the toughest tests on tour on ranking inside the Top 10 in terms of difficulty in four of the last five years. Much like last week, most of that difficulty comes from the water in play which forces a strong ball-striking effort if you are looking to make the cut and a near-elite one if you want to top the leaderboard come Sunday. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking is where the majority of my stats model will come from this week. Breaking it down further, I am leaning accuracy over distance off the tee and on the approach I am targeting long iron approach distances with a focus on the 200+ yard range.

For all my picks, ranks, notes, bets, and more make sure to grab your copy of my DFS PGA cheatsheet on the Chris's Sheets Page. With that said, let's go over a few of my favorite plays for this week.

Top Targets

Scottie Scheffler
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($11,700)

Scheffler got the win for us a few weeks ago and I am going back to the well here this week as he is ranked #1 in my overall model on the sheet. He slides ahead of Rahm because of the lack of course history for Rahm but still jumps off the page as the only player in my model to rank Top 10 in every category. He finished T15 in his only trip here in 2020 and comes in with terrific form having made eight straight cuts including a win at the WMPO, four Top 10's, and six Top 25 finishes. Statistically, over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in SG: Approach, 3rd in par 4 scoring, 6th in par 5 scoring, and 1st in birdie or better gained. Not that I am fading the $11k+ guys(DK) but I just love how much better my lineups have come together with Scheffler as my top guy.

Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#37)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($11,000)

If it's consistency you are after, look no further than Leishman who checks every box including a price that is outside the Top 10 in DraftKings salary. While he missed the cut here last year, he finished no worse than T25 in the previous five which also included a win(2017) and a runner-up(2020). He enters this year's event with arguably his best form yet making all eight cuts this season with six Top 25's and has also finished T16 or better in three of his last four events. I look for him to carry that early-season momentum over into one of his best events on tour. I will have exposure in all formats and an outright bet on him, as well.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
World Golf Ranking (#59)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($9,500)

Coming into this season, Bezuidenhout had played just a partial schedule on the PGA Tour but definitely got people's attention. He didn't miss a cut last season and has missed just two over his last 21 events on Tour and is coming off a T25 at the Honda Classic, his fourth Top 25 of this season. He fits the course perfectly as he is very accurate off the tee(20th in drive acc) and on approach(3rd in Proximity) and is one of the best at avoiding bogies(12th in bog avoidance). The price also stands out as it is below his season average and also a +6/+8 on my price to odds differential model on the sheet. Fire up Bezuidenhout in all formats and even consider betting him for a Top 10 and Top 20 finish.

Chris Kirk
World Golf Ranking (#94)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,300)

This mid $7K to mid $8K range on DraftKings is loaded this week and another reason I am loving my balanced builds early in the week. Kirk is going to be chalky and for good reason, as he checks every box starting with course history here at Bay Hill as he has tallied a Top 15 finish in four of his last five trips including a T8 last season. He has also found some excellent form coming into this week, as well, coming off a T7 at the Honda Classic last week and T14 at the Phoenix Open the week before that while gaining strokes in every SG category in both events. With a mid-range price on both sites, I will have heavy exposure in all formats.

Lanto Griffin
World Golf Ranking (#88)
Vegas Odds (/751)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,800)

Like I have mentioned in the past, I love using the salary to odds differential tool on the sheet to help find value and one that stands out this week is Lanto Griffin at a +9/+7 on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. He not only returns to Bay Hill after a T36 in 2020 and T21 last year but also comes in with plus form having made eight straight cuts which include three Top 10 finishes. Looking at my last 24 round model on Fantasy National, he is just average in terms of fairways gained and long iron proximity but is Top 25 in SG: Tee to Green, Ball Striking and APproach as well as Par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring, BoB, and putting. Add it all up and you have one of my top values of the week.