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Daily Fantasy NASCAR Preview & Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Daytona 500
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and top targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. He also provides a comprehensive cheatsheet looking at current and career track history, current form, fantasy averages, trends, practice/qualifying information, and then puts it all together with a customizable model. Get your copy by visiting our "Chris's DFS Sheets" page.
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Daytona 500
Track → Daytona International Speedway
Track Type → 2.5 Mile Superspeedway
Banking → 31º in all turns
Last 10 Winners at Daytona
- 2021 Summer → Ryan Blaney
- 2021 Daytona 500 → Michael McDowell
- 2020 Summer → William Byron
- 2020 Daytona 500 → Denny Hamlin
- 2019 Summer → Justin Haley
- 2019 Daytona 500 → Denny Hamlin
- 2018 Summer → Erik Jones
- 2018 Daytona 500 → Austin Dillon
- 2017 Summer → Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- 2017 Daytona 500 → Kurt Busch
Welcome back race fans. While the 2022 season gets underway at Daytona this upcoming week, we got a glimpse into the new NextGen car last week at the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum. There will definitely be some tweaks throughout the season and the race was on a unique one-off track but man I was impressed with what I saw in the racing. Now, with points on the line, we will find out how the new cars perform on one of the most famous tracks in the world, Daytona International Speedway.
With the rolling out of the NextGen car this season, that also brings back weekly practice and qualifying. Before we go any further, let's take a look at how that plays out at different tracks.
While having practice and qualifying back for the entire season is very exciting, the Daytona 500 continues to have its own unique setup. It starts with two practice sessions on Tuesday, February 15 followed by single-car qualifying on Wednesday, February 16. That qualifying session will only set the front row for the big race with the remainder of the starting positions being set by the two Duel races on Thursday evening. All qualified drivers and teams will then get two more practice sessions(Friday & Saturday) followed by the Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon.
With qualifying playing a huge role in our DFS builds at Daytona, this article is going to be more focused on superspeedway strategy. I will then highlight a few drivers we should be paying close attention to going into practice, qualifying, and the race itself. Let's get started.
Superspeedway DFS Strategy
Stack the back! This is an expression you are going to hear a lot going into the Daytona 500 and is the core strategy for any superspeedway race if playing DraftKings, FanDuel, or any format that rewards place differential points. This because it is very easy for cars to move through the field from back to front with the draft which is created when multiple cars line up in a single file and essentially push each other. The larger the group and more controlled they can operate together means faster speeds. It's that drafting that leads us into stacking drivers on the same team and drivers sharing the same manufacturer as they work together and have gameplans on superspeedways MUCH more than any other track type.
It is all relevant to the qualifying but generally, I want to make a rule for myself to never roster more than one driver starting Top 10 and usually no more than two starting Top 15. On the other end of things, I am almost always wanting 4-5 drivers starting outside the Top 20 and 2-3 of them starting outside the Top 30.
With high variance caused by a huge uptick in crashes that happen at superspeedway it can never hurt to be a bit contrarian in some of your lineups. This doesn't mean jamming in Top 10 starters who will be low owned but more changing the rules for your exposures and expanding your player pool slightly.
With all that said, let's take a look at a few of my favorite drivers for this race going into Speedweeks and make sure to check my cheatsheet for updates following practice and qualifying. I will also be posting my final top plays and rankings for the big race.
Initial Targets
Denny Hamlin
This is easily the top driver I will be watching as we go into the first two practice sessions and qualifying as no one has been better at Daytona and especially at the Daytona 500. He leads all drivers not named Justin Haley(only 3 races) with a 13.2 average finish over the last 10 races at Daytona and Denny also has Top 5 finishes in four straight Daytona 500's including back-to-back wins in 2019 and 2020. Going even further, it is safe to say Denny is arguably the best superspeedway racer in NASCAR and also leads all drivers with an elite 8.4 average finish on all superspeedway going back to the start of the 2020 season. Keep an eye out for his qualifying position and if starting too far forward don't forget about sites like PrizePicks, Underdog, or just some straight-up prop bets.
Bubba Wallace
The Toyota team has grown in 2022 adding former Daytona 500 winner and former Cup Series champion, Kurt Busch. That will only help Bubba in his progression and no better place to start than here at Daytona where he has finished 17th or better in eight of nine trips in the Cup Series including a runner-up in 2018 and two other Top 5 finishes. The one thing we will need to watch for is the final starting grid as that will ultimately decide my exposure to Bubba which has been low in recent years as he has started 6th, 11th, 13th, and 7th in his four Dayton 500's.
Michael McDowell
McDowell capped off his tremendous track history at the Daytona 500 last year picking up the huge win after narrowly avoiding a wreck on the last lap that involved teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Don't get me wrong, luck plays a huge part on superspeedways but McDowell knows how to get lucky better than most. He is the only driver other than Hamlin with an average finish(8.8) under 10 over the last five Daytona 500's and has the fourth-best average finish(14.1) over the last 10 Daytona races together. Not only that, he has been money when it comes to fantasy scoring as he has started 17th, 26th, 34th, 22nd, and 22nd in those last five Daytona 500's. If started outside the Top 15, and more so the Top 20, he will be a lock for me once again in 2022.
Justin Haley
Haley only has three races under his belt here at Daytona in the Cup series but he has definitely grabbed everyone's attention. It started back in 2019 when, as a part-time driver, took the #77 car to victory lane in the summer race. He then ran the Daytona 500 for Kaulig Racing in 2020 and picked up 20 place diff points finishing 13th and followed that up with a 6th place finish back in the #77 last summer. It should really come as no surprise as he finished his Xfinity career with two wins at Daytona in his last three trips and finished 6th or better in four of his last five. He will be back with Kaulig Racing(#31) this time around and will have a teammate in Daniel Hemric(#16) to help things out. Stay tuned as they could be a top value stack for the big race.
Corey LaJoie
Depending on when salaries come out(before or after qualifying), LaJoie could end up being one of the highest owned DFS plays for the 500. He has Top 10 finishes in back-to-back Daytona 500's and has also finished 21st or better in each of his last six Daytona races overall with three Top 10's. Racing on smaller teams(Spire Motorsports this year) also ensures he starts towards the back which gives him elite place differential upside and elite PTS/$ upside as he always comes cheap.
