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The PGA Tour remains in California this week for the annual trip to the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links. With the return of the Pro-Am this year, the event will also get back to its regular three-course rotation as all players will play one round on Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula each of the first three days. The cut(Top 65 & ties) will be made following Saturday's round with the final round being played on Pebble Beach on Sunday.
The Pro-Am definitely deters some of the top golfers and that trend continues this week as we have just one player in Patrick Cantlay(#4) ranked Top 10 in the World and he is joined by just 10 of the Top 50 when looking at the Official World Golf Rankings.
All three courses are Par 72's on the short end of the meter with Spyglass the longest at just 7,035 yards. While weather can affect how things play out, we generally see Monterey play as the easiest of the three followed by Spyglass and then Pebble Beach. With Pebble being played twice and with it being the only course with shot tracker, this is the course I will focus on when putting together my stats model. That model will be looking heavily at Strokes Gained: Approach with emphasis on Proximity from the short and mid ranges(depending on player). With the smallest greens on Tour at Pebble Beach, I will also be mixing Strokes Gained: Around the Green and putting on Poa greens.
With all that said, let's get into the picks.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($11,200)
FanDuel ($12,300)
I was a bit surprised the price gap between Cantlay and the field wasn't bigger this week so I guess we will start at the top. He is coming off a second straight Top 10 to open the 2022 portion of the season and that could have been much better considering he was leading after two rounds. He now returns to Pebble Beach where he has had success in recent years with a T11 in 2020 and T3 last year. Finally, he tops my short-term stats model, as well, ranking 4th in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in Par 4 & 5 scoring, 6th in SG: Putting, and 1st in Birdie or Better %. I will have exposure in all formats.
Maverick McNealy
World Golf Ranking (#72)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,800)
FanDuel ($10,900)
While his name may look out of place in this price range, Maverick McNealy checks almost every single box this week. First of all, he is having a solid start to the season making seven of eight cuts including a Top 10 and for Top 25 finishes and statistically ranks(in this field) 15th in Ball Striking, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 5 scoring, and 11th in Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds. If that consistency doesn't grab your attention, his course history should as he has finished T5 and T2 in each of the last two years here at Pebble. All things considered, I feel he is a good play in all formats and could even come a bit underowned considering the other potential chalk in the top tier.
Mito Pereira
World Golf Ranking (#95)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($10,700)
Mito made his first appearance in 2022 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open and picked up where he left off in the fall making his eighth cut in nine events this season. He was neutral off the tee which hurt his ball-striking numbers a bit but he more than made up for it with the irons as he gained 3.7 strokes on approach and backed that up gaining 2.6 on the greens with the flat stick. He sits second in the rookie rankings and it's only matter of time before his elite ball-striking(5th in this field last 24 rounds) leads him to a win. At these prices, he is one of my favorite PTS/$ plays in the field.
Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#117)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($8,900)
It has been a very solid start to the new season for Kuchar who made all four cuts in the fall(T36, T35, T22, T37) and looked even better at the Sony Open gaining 5.9 strokes tee to green which led to his first Top 10 since the Genesis back in Feb 2020. He doesn't have the best course history in the field but has made the cut here in three straight trips including a T38 and T22 in his last two trips. He doesn't really pop in terms of the stats model except in two key areas as he is 4th in this field in SG: Around the Green and 14th in SG: Putting. I like him best in cash games but will be sprinkling in some Kuchar in GPP as well.
Wyndham Clark
World Golf Ranking (#223)
Vegas Odds (140/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,400)
Like Kuchar, Clark comes into this week after a very solid start to the 2021-22 season. He made five of six cuts in the fall and has made two straight since the calendar flipped to 2022. The ball-striking has been a bit all over the map during this stretch but one thing that keeps him in consideration each and every week is the elite putting, especially on Poa. Clark also has some course history to pull from here as he has made the cut in both appearances including an impressive T18 in 2020. All things considered, he is one of my top value plays this week in all formats.
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