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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 1/30/21
Most eyes will be fixated on the NFL here, but we're going to keep grinding NBA profits. We have eight games making up this Sunday card, and there's plenty to discuss. We actually have the three best players in fantasy on this slate, and that's a rare sight considering how small it is. We also have numerous key players missing, which will surely be a significant theme in this article. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $10800 DK - $11200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 53.35 DK - 55.6
There's more value on this slate than ever before, so it's going to be easier to get Luka into your lineups than you may think. We believe getting him in there will be critical because he's a near guarantee for 50 fantasy points. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 54 DraftKings points per game for the season, scoring at least 65 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. That's a genuinely absurd stretch from one of the best players in the NBA, and he could be asked to do even more here. He's already leading the NBA with a 36 percent usage rate but could be pushing 40 percent with Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr missing this game. The matchup with the Magic is also majestic, and we'll go over that more later!
Tre Jones FD - $4100 DK - $3000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 23.6 DK - 23.85
It's not every day that you can find a minimum-priced starting point guard that will play 30 minutes. We can confidently say that here, though, because the Spurs are resting Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl. Those three swallow up nearly all of the team's usage and most of their fantasy points. Tre has been the guy who has started for Murray in the past, playing 25-30 minutes in that role. If you look at the six games Tre has played at least 20 minutes, he's averaging 25 fantasy points per game. That would be a monster total from someone this cheap, and it's going to be tough for the Spurs to take him off the floor with so many key players missing.
If D'Angelo Russell is out, don't forget about Jaylen Nowell possibly getting a start.
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan FD - $9100 DK - $8900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.15 DK - 42.78
DeRozan has seen a price drop recently, and it's tough to understand why. The former Raptor is actually in one of the best stretches of his career, scoring at least 47 DK points in five straight outings. We've seen that sort of consistency all season, though, with DeMar scoring at least 27 fantasy points in 43 of 44 games this season. That's truly absurd, but it's far from shocking when you see that he's averaging 19.2 shots across 35 minutes a night. The best part of this is the matchup, though, with Portland ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.
Joshua Primo FD - $3500 DK - $3400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 23.96 DK - 24.1
This is literally a kid, and you can tell by the picture! This 19-year-old has some game, though, and he's in a great spot to succeed. In his five games with the Austin Spurs, Primo is providing 18.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.6 steals across 30 minutes a night. We expect that minute total to be his floor here because he should start with White, Murray, and Poeltl all sitting. He's actually played at least 25 minutes five times this season, averaging over 21 fantasy points per game. That might not jump off the page, but that's a fantastic total from a minimum-priced player. The blowout potential would worry us with some players, but Primo will stay out there no matter what, with so many bodies missing and Primo needing the playing time.
Amir Coffey has been one of the Clippers' best players with their two superstars missing.
Small Forward
Anthony Edwards FD - $8600 DK - $8500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 44.13 DK - 45.44
ANT Man was the top pick in last year's draft, and he's showing why recently. The 20-year-old has at least 49 DK points in three straight games, scoring at least 62 fantasy points in two of those. The direct correlation with the bump in production is the absence of D'Angelo Russell, leaving Edwards with more ball-handling duties than usual. That's massive for a guy this talented, especially with his season average creeping up to 40 fantasy points per game. Facing Utah would usually concern us, but they've actually been one of the worst defenses in the NBA since Rudy Gobert's injury.
De'Andre Hunter FD - $4900 DK - $4600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.26 DK - 25.86
Why is Hunter still below $5K? This dude has been playing at a $6K level since his return from injury, scoring at least 30 DK points in five of his last eight games. That's a ridiculous number from a sub-$5K player, and that's the guy we saw last season before his injury as well. The pricing is the main reason we want to ride Hunter, but this matchup is pristine. The Lakers rank third in pace and 26th in points allowed. That means we have two of the worst defenses in the NBA on display in a game that should be a shootout. That only adds to De'Andre's intrigue, making him a great pairing with studs like Doncic, Jokic and Giannis.
Devin Vassell should see a massive increase in production with so many Spurs missing.
Power Forward
Maxi Kleber FD - $4200 DK - $3700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.66 DK - 24.78
Kleber was on his way to a career game on Saturday night if Dallas didn't blow out the Pacers. The big man collected 15 points and 14 rebounds across 23 minutes of action in that gem, filling in for the injured Porzingis. Kleber has had to do that a lot throughout KP's career, playing over 30 minutes a night in these circumstances. He's also averaging about 25 DK points per game as well, an impressive number from a $4K player. All of that makes him tough to fade in this price range, particularly against an Orlando team that ranks 25th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Drew Eubanks FD - $3800 DK - $3000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 25.82 DK - 25.37
Poeltl has been one of the most underrated big men in the NBA, but Eubanks hasn't been a slouch behind him. Drew has been playing limited minutes, but he's averaging 12.6 DK points per game across 12 minutes a night. We love that rate since he should see an expanded role here, likely starting and playing 30 minutes in the absence of Poeltl. In Eubanks eight starts this season, Drew is averaging 25 DK points per game across 22 minutes a night. We expect that 22-minute number to be his floor, making him tough to fade at these ridiculously cheap prices. This could be Jock Londale starting instead. Monitor this situation closely.
If Keldon Johnson plays, he might lead the Spurs in shots and usage rate.
Center
Hassan Whiteside FD - $6500 DK - $6400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 40.64 DK - 40.95
Whiteside has been a disappointment filling in for Gobert, but this price is just too tasty to pass up. We say that because Hassan has been an $8K player with this role in the past. He typically averages about 1.3 DK points per minute for his career, averaging 21 DK points per game across 17 minutes a night this season. We expect him to be looking at a 30-minute role as Utah's starting center, which means he could be looking at 35-45 fantasy points. That'd be an amazing number from a $6,500 player, and it feels even more likey against Minnesota. The Timberwolves rank 21st in total defense while surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. It's easy to see why with how bad KAT is on defense, forcing Whiteside into even more minutes to oppose him.
Bismack Biyombo FD - $6100 DK - $5800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 36.12 DK - 36
Biyombo was a beast as a reserve when Deandre Ayton was the only big man missing, but with JaVale McGee out as well, this is Bismack's world. The big man has played at least 29 minutes in four straight outings since the McGee injury, scoring at least 26 DK points in all of them. That floor is impressive, but the 36-point average in that span is spectacular. That's tough to find from a $6K player, and we absolutely love this matchup with the Spurs. San Antonio sits fifth in pace and 24th in total defense. We expect it to be even worse, with half of their roster sitting as well. Keep an eye on whether DeAndre Ayton returns here.
Karl-Anthony Towns is always in play below $10K, and we're not worried about him facing a Utah team without Rudy Gobert.
