Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) points down field during an NFL football game against the Washington Football Team, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
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Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 23.66 DK - 24.17
Mahomes is the clear cash play for this short slate. He’s been nearly perfect through the first two rounds, putting up a combined 782 yards through the air with a 76% completion percentage. Plus there are the eight touchdowns to one interception and it all just lines up to run him out there again this week. The Chiefs have the highest implied total on Sunday (not a surprise) at 31 and we know they default to wanting to throw the ball early and often. He makes for a very tough fade in this game on just the two-game slate.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 18.82 DK - 22.86
It would seem the clear pay-ups are going to come from this game considering the total is just so high. After struggling a bit over the final three weeks of the season and the first week of the playoffs, Hill put up a monster in the Divisional Round against the Bills. He finished with an 11/150/1 line on 13 targets and had one of the true highlights of the day on his 64-yard catch and sprint touchdown in the final minute of regulation. I think we run him again here without hesitation against a Bengals’ defense ranked 24th against the pass this season.
The Chiefs running back situation is a tough one this week. Jerick McKinnon out-snapped Clyde Edwards-Helaire 70%-30% in the Divisional round, though CEH was much more efficient. McKinnon has been getting more looks, especially in the passing game so I’m tempted to say he’s a fine play here. But KC is also getting Darrel Williams back here which could muck things up.
Additionally, Travis Kelce is getting pretty expensive and there are actually other decent tight end options going on Sunday. I’m close to saying he’s a fade in cash because of the other guys, but that’s always a dicey proposition.
Byron Pringle saw the third-most targets on the team (7) last week which is something to keep an eye on considering his price point.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 19.36 DK - 19.91 There’s some case to be made for playing Burrow in cash here considering the savings you get coming down from Mahomes. It stands the reason the Bengals will be in shootout/ catchup mode this whole game with Burrow having to throw a ton to even keep it close. If that’s the case then we could see him really rack up yards. He’s been efficient if unspectacular in the playoffs so far completing 73% of his passes for about 300 yards per game. But he’s just had two touchdowns to one interception in that span. Again, I think the cost difference and the potential volume are fine to play here against the 23rd-ranked passing defense.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 17.58 DK - 20.86
Chase is coming too cheap on DraftKings right now where I think we can load up on WR1s for this weekend. The big-play threat Bengals’ rookie has topped 100 yards receiving in four of the last five weeks with 642 total yards in the span. And that includes Week 18 that the Bengals basically punted. It’s been an amazing run and I think he’s something of a value still on DK. Because running back is such a weak position, grabbing Chase here and pairing putting him with Kupp and Hill makes a lot of sense in cash games.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 12.67 DK - 15.35
Meanwhile, Higgins really helps things work on FanDuel where his mid-$6K salary opens things up at other points in the lineup. He had a terrible Wild Card weekend, but bounced back in a big way against the Titans, getting nine targets and turning them into seven catches for 96 yards. He averaged right around eight targets per game throughout the regular season, and like we said with Burrow, it stands to reason that the Bengals are throwing a ton here.
I think CJ Uzomah is very much in play this week in cash games on both sites. He’s seen six or more targets in six of the last seven weeks. Considering he’s going in the low-$3K range on DraftKings, I think we can slot him in to have a solid floor.
Tyler Boyd’s price is all the way down to $4200 on DraftKings. It’s with good reason seeing as how the targets haven’t been in there in the playoffs. But it’s worth mentioning that this guy has four touchdowns over the last five games for the Bengals.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 22.02 DK - 26.93
He’s been an impossible fade on DraftKings all season and this week is really no different. He’s coming off a record-breaking season and in the Divisional round put up one of his best games of the season with nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. It’s just been monster week after monster week for this guy and defenses simply have no answer. In a must-win for the Rams, you would think Stafford and company turn his way early and often. Avoiding him in full PPR formats is a dicey proposition.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 15.9 DK - 16.42
The running back pool is a thin one this week with at least one team going full committee. That doesn’t leave us with many safer options, but Elijah Mitchell likely fits the bill here. He’s touched the ball 21 and 29 times respectfully in the first two rounds of the playoffs with the 49ers really wanting to lean on the run game as much as possible. And it’s an encouraging sign that they’ve gotten him involved a bit through the air as well. Even with Deebo Samuel in the backfield mix for this team, I think we can lean on Mitchell here even against a stout run defense in the Rams.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 16.1 DK - 17.04
While I hate running any running backs into this 49ers defense, there are few options on the slate. The good sign for Akers is that he came in as the bell cow back in the Divisional round for the Rams, touching the ball 27 times (24 carries and 3 targets). That’s a great sign for the projected usage in this one. The issue is that he was largely ineffective, totaling only 51 yards. But for this slate, we’ll just have to live with the usage and hope it works out against the second-best run defense in the league.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 8.45 DK - 10.72
Higbee is coming too cheap on DraftKings at $3700 and is a big reason I think you end up possibly running double tight end lineups in cash over there with him and Uzomah. You don’t have to do it, but it really frees up money for others in the lineup like Kupp. Higbee has six or more targets in five of the last six games, averaging almost six catches and 50 yards per game in that stretch. You will definitely take that production in the DraftKings salary tier.
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