(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 28.51 DK - 29.32
The Bills are in the playoffs, but they haven’t locked up their seeding quite yet. It’s not 100% clear how motivated they are to win here, but I suspect there’s at least a semblance of eagerness to take the AFC East which they would do with a win. They own the tiebreaker over New England in that respect. Allen is the top-scoring fantasy quarterback on DraftKings this season by about a game’s worth of production over Josh Herbert. Getting him against the league’s worst defense in the Jets makes for a very high floor play considering the Bills should be wanting to win this one going away.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 23.6 DK - 24.54
The Saints can make the playoffs but will need the Los Angeles Rams to beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. The games are going down at the same time, so there isn’t likely to be a ton of scoreboard watching early. Hill isn’t all that efficient a passer, but he’s a fine fantasy play especially at his DraftKings price considering what he can do on the ground. He’s rushed the ball 11 or more times in each of his last four starts, averaging about 63 yards per game on the ground. He’ll face an Atlanta team ranked 30th in DVOA against the run this season. Considering how much the Saints need this game and the floor Hill provides, I think he’s clearly a DK play.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 25.26 DK - 26.81
The Colts have not secured a playoff spot yet, though they do control their own destiny there. If they win, they are in and that’s a great spot for us when it comes to Taylor. Having the team motivated to lead on their star back makes him a safer option this week when there is a lot of uncertainty. Taylor’s season has been nothing short of amazing, and he leads the league in nearly every relevant running back category. He has 529 more rushing yards than the next-closest back and his 18 touchdowns are easily the tops there as well. Oh, and now he faces the 31st-ranked Jaguars’ defense with a chance to get into the playoffs. This one is easy.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 17.67 DK - 19.39
The Rams control their own destiny in Week 18, locking up a two-seed in the NFC if they are able to beat the 49ers. Heading in, the Rams are -6.5 home favorites and it should be another week with Sony Michel playing all of the running back snaps for Los Angeles. He’s gone back-to-back weeks of nearly 100% snap share for this steam and last time out touched the ball 24 times (19 carries, four targets) for 99 yards and a touchdown. I don’t like the matchup against San Fran, but it’s hard to get away from the usage here especially on a week that will feature a lot of question marks around the league.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 16.33 DK - 17.28
Speaking of bellcows running backs on teams still fighting hard to secure optimal playoff seeding, Foreman definitely fits the bill. We are still at least one more week away from Derrick Henry entering the mix for the Titans and the latter should lean on Foreman once again here. He played 90% of the snaps in Week 17, finishing with a whopping 26 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown. He could be in for a similar workload on Sunday considering the Titans know, at this point, that they really aren’t saving him for anything. He’ll face off against a Houston team ranking 18th in DVOA and the Titans are -10 road favorites. That’s the sweet spot for running downhill and Foreman isn’t priced like an every-down back.
Strongly consider Devin Singletary who saw the bulk of the carries for the Bills last week. Stacking him and Allen feels like a high-floor play.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 23.21 DK - 28.39
We haven’t faded Cooper Kupp in weeks and there’s no reason to start no. $10K on DraftKings? No problem. He’s already had a record-setting fantasy season and much like Taylor is well ahead of the field at the position when it comes to scoring. He’s had double-digit targets in all but two games this season, and one of them was last week when he still went for six catches, 95 yards and a touchdown. It’s been a masterpiece of a season for Kupp and we can run him one more time on a main slate in all cash games.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 13.36 DK - 15.67
We actually wrote up Grayson last week a speculative play if Antonio Brown were to miss with an injury. It turned out that, well, sort of happened and Grayson stepped up after a shirtless AB exited stage left. Grayson played 64% of the snaps, finishing second on the team in targets with eight. He ending up catching six balls, good for 81 yards and a touchdown. The price moved a little, but not much. With Brown now fully off the team and Chris Godwin out for the season, I think Grayson slots in as a cash play.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 14.75 DK - 18.19
The Cardinals are facing the 24th-ranked pass defense in the league in the Seahawks and are looking to clinch the NFC West with a win. Since DeAndre Hopkins went down three weeks ago, Kirk has seen targets of 9, 9, and 12 and 227 total yards. He’s not a big-play threat, but the looks are there in the passing game with the Cardinals down a huge threat in Hopkins. I still think the price is fair here and the matchup is a good one.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 11.11 DK - 14.07
Over the last four weeks, Ertz is tied with Mark Andrews for the targets' lead among tight ends. What hasn’t come with that opportunity are the yards or touchdowns. In a lot of ways, that’s why the price is still sitting firmly in the middle tier. The Seahawks have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season and I do think Kyler Murray continues to look his way. The yards feel at the low end considering the target share so I think we are still getting value on him as a play.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 13.43 DK - 15.94
Gronk has gotten more expensive, but it’s warranted for how much Brady threw his way last game and much he could keep going in that direction. With Antonio Brown now gone and Chris Godwin done, Gronk led the team in targets in Week 17 with 10. If the Bucs are full incentivized to go all-out here then that kind of opportunity could be in line once again.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 8.67 DK - 8.67
It looks like the Cincinnati Bengals will be sitting meaningful starters in this game with nothing really to play for. Joe Burrow is trending towards being out and Joe Mixon is already on the Covid protocol list. That could leave the Browns’ defense playing against all backups even though on DraftKings they are priced at the lower end of the salary tier. I think we can take advantage of that mistake and run them in cash knowing they are up against a skeleton crew.
In terms of the expensive defenses, the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and Tennessee Titans are all double-digit favorites in must-win games. And they are all playing garbage offenses. Starting any one of those three would be a major plus, it’s just a matter of whether you can afford the price tags.
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