Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden dribbles during an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers Thursday, Feb. 18, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 54.9 DK - 60.27
The stars were out on Christmas Day as James Harden took over for the short-handed Nets squad dropping a triple-double(36-10-10) to lead the Nets to their Eastern Conference-leading 22nd win. Harden will once again have to put the team on his back as Kyrie remains out and Durant is set to miss his third straight, as well. With that, Harden feels a bit underpriced considering his usage spikes up to nearly 35% while tallying 1.5 fantasy points per minute with Durant off the court. The Clippers have a Top 5 defense but are also short-handed so I fully expect this game to stay relatively close allowing Harden to get another full run. Fire him up in all formats.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.91 DK - 34.2
On the other side of this matchup, we have Eric Bledsoe who was pushed back into the starting rotation with Reggie Jackson falling on the Covid list. He has been lights out with the added opportunity playing at least 36 minutes and dropping at least 18 points in both games. He has also added a ton of secondary scoring equaling 1.2 fantasy points per minute which have absolutely crushed for value on both sites. The price has gone up slightly but as long as he is in the starting rotation, it is still a massive buy-low opportunity on both sites.
Also Consider: LaMelo Ball(CHA) who has seen his price drop back down into the mid $9K range on both sites and gets a terrific matchup
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 40.66 DK - 45.02
This game has the lowest total on the slate so likely doesn't get as much attention but still has a ton of value throughout. For me, it starts with LaVine who returned yesterday from a two-week absence and looked great dropping 12 of 18 shots for 49 DK/46.3 FD points against the Pacers. He now gets an even better matchup against the Hawks who rank 24th in defensive efficiency and best of all, his price has dropped back down into the mid $9K range on DraftKings and mid $8K range on FanDuel. Lock and load in all formats.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.61 DK - 32.19
The Minnesota roster is a bit of a mess at the moment with multiple players(Russell, Vanderbilt, Towns, Beverley, Okogie, Reid) in health and safety protocols. We won't know exactly who is available until later in the day but one player who is "healthy" and should get all the work he can handle is Malik Beasley. He has been excellent in the short term playing 30 or more minutes in each of the last four games while averaging 18 shots, 21 points, and 34 DK/31 FD points per game. The matchup against the Celtics(10th in def eff) doesn't jump off the page but Beasley should once again get tons of opportunity allowing him to easily hit his floor value. Best for cash games but in play in all formats considering how short-handed the T-Wolve are tonight.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.03 DK - 36.87
It is generally very tough to play Oubre in cash games as a 6th man but with both Cody Martin and Miles Bridges out, he is projected to get another start. We even have a nice sample size to look back on as he made four straight starts in early December where he shot over 51% on 20 shots per game for an average of 47v fantasy points. This is also a game we are going to want heavy exposure to with two teams that rank 29th and 30th in defensive efficiency and Top 3 in pace. Considering Oubre was in the mid $8K range on DraftKings just two weeks ago while not starting, we should probably loc and load in all formats in the $6K range(DK).
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.24 DK - 27.85
I mentioned the Nets being short-handed above and Bembry is another player who will get a boost in opportunity. He returned on Christmas Day after missing three games on the Covid list and looked good playing 27 minutes, dropping 6 of 8 from the field and tallying 27 fantasy points. In a nearly identical situation for the Nets, Bembry's price only went up slightly and being his second game back, should get a bit longer run. Put it all together and you have one of the top PTS/$ values on the slate.
Also Consider: Nassir Little(POR) who returns tonight, comes at a nice value, and as someone who gets most of his value from rebounding gets a plus matchup as the Mavs rank 25th in that department
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 48.4 DK - 52.23
If you are looking for consistency from a high-priced play look no further than Jason Tatum. He leads the Celtics with a 31.5% usage rate on the season and has been terrific in the short-term posting 40 or more fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 games while averaging just over 47 on both sites and has come within one rebound of a double-double in four straight games. He now gets a plus matchup against a short-handed Minnesota team that runs a Top 10 pace. Lock in the consistent minutes and production in all formats and move on!
**Update** Tatum has enter health and safety protocols and is out tonight**
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.64 DK - 42.81
Wood has been dealing with some knee soreness which has capped his minutes but the 3-4 day holiday break should get him back to his usual rotation. That is great news as the price has dropped off to its lowest point since late November making this a great buy-low in a great matchup against the Hornets who ran dead last in defensive efficiency and run the third-fastest pace. Even with just around 30 minutes per game lately, he has tallied 36 or more DK points in four straight and is averaging just shy of 40 per game over the last 10. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.42 DK - 28.92
Value is the name of the game recently with all the covid-related issues across the league. Claxton has got a start for the Nets in three straight and been quite productive dropping 20 of 28 shots(71%) with 27 or more fantasy points(DK) in each game. The matchup doesn't look great on paper as the Clippers are 4th in defensive efficiency but they too are short-handed so I am not worried at all. The price on FanDuel has jumped up quite a bit making him GPP only for me but on DraftKings, he is under $5K and is a top PTS/$ value at the position.
Also Consider: Nathan Knight(MIN) who could get the start for the Towns and is near min price
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