Utah Jazz's Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates with Jae Crowder (99) and Rudy Gobert (27) after the first half of the team's NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, March 2, 2018, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Kim Raff)
Before we get started, know that this slate is already pretty odd. We have a couple of teams that are fully punting their games and sitting superstars. Other teams have players in protocols (or both) and will be working with different lineups. I addressed the two biggest situations to look out for in their own section.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 47.41 DK - 50.37
The Bucks are still going to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo in this game which should, once again, provide a big opportunity to Holiday. The Bucks lost in overtime on Friday without Giannis of Chris Middleton and it remains to be seen if they decide to limit Jrue here because he ran 44 minutes in all. Fantasy-wise, he was everything you wanted, dropping 40 points while adding five rebounds and assists each. The price moved some on both sites, but not enough especially on DraftKings. If he’s starting tonight, even if Middleton is back then I think you have a pretty easy play here.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.01 DK - 47.73
It looks like Utah is going to be without Mike Conley in this game and, in the past, that has meant a usage uptick for Donovan Mitchell. With Conley off the court this season, Mitchell has a 35% usage rate and the assist rate ticks up about 6% as well. I think we are going to have plenty of ways to save on this slate and there aren’t a ton of top-end payoffs on either site. With that in mind, we are likely locked into just playing some higher floor guys and rounding out the salary on the lower end. That’s the case with Mitchell here who is in a good spot.
The next two positions are shorter because I'm going to address a ton of guys all at once that qualify at SG and SF with the Nets and Warriors.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 35.74 DK - 37.81
Wagner played a lot on Friday evening because the Magic really needed his minutes. That could be the case again here against Brooklyn who is playing without any of its core players. The Magic did bring on some hardship exemptions so the team isn’t paper-thin, but they still aren’t very good at all. Wagner was a popular option on Friday and is trending to be chalk once again. He took a team-high 23 shots, 10 more than the next-closest player on the team. That kind of usage uptick should be in place for the talented rookie once again. The DraftKings price is getting a little steep, but he’s still a fine option. On FanDuel, he’s close to a lock.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 46.2 DK - 49.91
On a slate like this one, at some point, we are just going to have to spend enough money to keep the salary up there. That’s the case with Tatum here who comes in as a good-not-great option. But in terms of a raw points play, that’s where we are with this slate. He’s been solid this season scoring 27 points per game and adding nine rebounds. Solid numbers considering the minutes have been on the higher side, though his three-point shooting isn’t quite up to his career numbers. He’ll face a Knicks team that is actually below average on defense this season though they also play on the slower side as well. The thing to look out for here is that Tatum is coming on the back-to-back and played a lot on Friday evening.
Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors
I’ve never really done this before but I’m just adding a whole section here to talk about the situations on these teams. Both squads have opted to sit essentially every player who gets major minutes and they are going with a skeleton crew for each. That’s going to open up opportunities for a bunch of guys who don’t normally get it.
For the Nets, we are going to wait on their starting lineup but David Duke Jr. (FD 5400 DK 4600), Kessler Edwards (FD 5900 DK 4800), Cam Thomas (FD 5400 DK 4700), Nicolas Claxton (FD 5900 DK 4400) and maybe some others are all in lay. We are going to need to wait to see who the starters are, but it’s likely you are rostering at least one or two of these dudes in what is still a good matchup. They are going to need a lot of minutes.
Meanwhile, it’s the same for the Warriors who are playing without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and more. Their starting lineup is also a mystery but we could get a lot of minutes out of Gary Payton II (FD 4200 DK 3300), Nemanja Bjelica (FD 4000 DK 3400), Damion Lee (FD 3900 DK 3600), and Juan Toscano-Anderson (FD 3700 DK 3200). There are others in the mix as well. Let’s wait on each team’s starting lineup, but there is definitely going to be value here.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.49 DK - 35.14
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.1 DK - 32.21
Like we said, this game is going to feature a lot of backups and Okeke will likely be very highly owned on both sites. He was pretty much a chalk play for the shorthanded Magic on Friday night and that should be the case once again. He also delivered in a big way against the Heat, playing 39 minutes and finishing with 18 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, and a whopping six steals. The defensive stats are definitely an outlier, but the rest of the production really isn’t based on the minutes. With the Magic playing this game again without Mo Bamba, and likely without Wendell Carter Jr., it stands to reason that Okeke plays minutes close to 40 once again.
And then there is Robin Lopez who should be in the starting lineup once again with the Magic front court in shambles. He got the nod on Friday and played 33 minutes total. He finished with 18 points and seven rebounds. The price really didn’t move at all and he’s looking again like a great punt play against a Brooklyn Nets team that is basically just playing rookies. This is an easy spot for Lopez to pile on if the Magic want to run him any significant minutes.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 44.08 DK - 45.98
Allen only played 18 minutes last game because the team didn’t need all that much out of him. He had a little foul trouble and then the blowout was on against the Rockets. I don’t think that will be the same case here and we should see him hit minutes in the mid-30s once again. The Bucks are bringing a lineup that will probably feature DeMarcus Cousins at the five and then after that they are very thin in the front court. Allen is in a great spot to bounce back here and had double-doubled in 10 of his previous 12 games. With the salaries the way they are, I think he is another one of those high floor plays we talked about.
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