Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) passes against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020. (AP Photo/Josie Lepe)
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Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 24.15 DK - 24.88
It’s been a really good sign for Murray’s return to full health that he’s gotten out and run over the last couple of weeks, totally 17 attempts on the ground and piling up 120 yards and two touchdowns. It gives him such a high fantasy floor, something that only a few quarterbacks in the game have. I think we can pretty confidently roster him in cash this week against the Lions who ranks 31st in defensive DVOA and are equally terrible against both the pass and the run. Murray should be able to pile on the points here with the Cardinals still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. Though he will be without DeAndre Hopkins in the receiving corps, the Cardinals still have plenty of weapons.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 21.15 DK - 21.94
The Cowboys face the Giants this week who rank 18th in overall DVOA this season, though it’s worth noting that they are better against the pass than the run. Dak hasn’t run as much as we would like this season, though did get out there seven times last week. But the pass attempts are up over the short-term, averaging more than 40 over the last four games. That’s a good sign even if the yards and touchdowns haven’t exactly followed. The price is in a tier lower than the stud quarterbacks for a reason. Dak’s performance just hasn’t warranted an increase. But I think this is the perfect time to buy relatively low considering the matchup.
If Lamar Jackson were to sit out, I think Tyler Huntley makes for an interesting and cheap option.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 14.24 DK - 15.35
The Rams have been rocked by Covid this week and as of this writing had placed 25 players into the protocols. But it looks like Sony Michel will be able to suit up and should have an every-down role for LA. It doesn’t appear that Darrell Henderson is going to be able to clear protocols to play in this one. Last week, in a similar situation, Michel played 100% of the Rams’ snaps and carried the ball 20 times for 79 yards. He had one lone target in the passing game. That sure feels like the low end of expected production in that kind of role. Seattle is better against the run than the pass (9th vs 28th) but I think Michel will just have so much on-field time that he makes for a safe option at these price points.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 13.88 DK - 15.47
The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week and it sure seems like a move that could help the team. It would be tough for them to be worse. Robinson is coming off a disaster game last time out, but if there is a chance for a bounce-back performance, this is the one. The Texans rank 28th against the rush this season and the Jaguars are actually -5.5 home favorites. Sure, it’s a little risky with the state of the team, Offensive coordinated Darrell Bevell is taking over in the interim and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lean on Robinson here in the first game. We will monitor some of the plans, but I think Robinson is cash game viable considering the situation.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 15.21 DK - 16.77
What to do with Ezekiel Elliott? On the one hand, this should be a smash spot against the Giants' defense that ranks 27th against the run this season. The Cowboys are big-time -10.5 road favorites, a spot that should usually see running backs in full use. Plus, Tony Pollard remains banged up with an ankle injury. But Elliott has really struggled over the second half of the season, averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry in the last seven games (83 carries, 289 yards). On FanDuel though, it's hard to quit him at that price.
If James Conner is out then Chase Edmonds would look like a very strong cash play.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 24.16 DK - 29.56
On a week filled with uncertainty around a number of different players, let’s rest easy that we can run Kupp in cash without much worry. He’s only slightly off the pace for the most receptions in a season (149 by Michael Thomas). Kupp has 113 through 13 games and has 21 more than the next closest player this season. He’s been as safe a fantasy play as there is in the game and easily the highest-scoring DraftKings player this year. The Rams should keep in through the air this week against the Seahawks and I don’t think we need to hem and haw about whether it’s worth it to pay up for Kupp. If anything, the price hasn’t adjusted enough. And with Odell Beckham out this week, Kupp could see even more looks.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 11.34 DK - 13.84
Jaylen Waddle has been ruled out of this game after entering the Covid-19 protocols and that’s going to open up some work in the Miami passing game. They are facing off against a Jets team that ranks dead last in DVOA and is also there against the pass as well. Parker returned in Week 13 and played 71 of the team’s snaps, finishing with five catches for 62 yards. That should tick up in this game almost for sure and the price is way too low for the projected opportunity.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 13.43 DK - 16.16
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 11.73 DK - 14.34
The Cardinals are going to be without DeAndre Hopkins this week after Nuk totaled his highest target game of the season last time around. Though Hopkins hasn’t been a target monster this season, his absence does open up work in the passing game for the remaining wide receivers. AJ Green totaled his most targets of the season last time around too, getting 10 looks and converting them to 7 catches for 102 yards. We could see a similar share this time around against the Lions.
Meanwhile, Kirk is looking like a value as well and could see 6-7 targets at least with Hopkins out of the mix. He’s coming off an 86 yard performance last game and has six or more targets in four of his last six games. I suspect Kyler Murray will turn his way a bit more in this game especially if they remain banged up in the backfield with James Conner’s status in doubt as of this writing.
With Tyler Lockett out, DK Metcalf becomes an intriguing option, especially on DraftKings at $6200.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 11.47 DK - 14.12
As mentioned with Parker, with Waddle out of the mix this week for the Dolphins there will be some extra targets to go around. Gesicki ranks third among tight ends in targets this season (89) behind only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. And he’s coming off an 11-target game, his second-highest total of the season. The Jets offer a great matchup as well and he has a very high floor in this game. The price on both sites is pretty reasonable, but he makes for an especially good DraftKings play in the middle-tier. I think he sees decent ownership considering the Dolphins’ situation.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 8.69 DK - 10.96
With the Cardinals needing to pass a bit more last week, Ertz saw seven targets and converted that to five catches for 42 yards. He could be in line for a similar target share on Sunday. I much prefer Gesicki’s price on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, the $900 savings you get on Ertz could represent the chance for a meaningful upgrade at another part in the lineup. With Hopkins out Ertz could see a bit more work in the passing game and we love this situation against the Lions.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 7.99 DK - 7.99
The Jaguars as a fantasy defense? Now you know times have gotten weird and wacky. But there are things that line up for them this week. For starters, they get to face the Texans and their trash pile of an offense that ranks dead last in the league this season. And now they are starting Davis Mills. Jacksonville isn’t any great shakes on the defensive side of the ball, though have been decent enough against the run. This is more about matchup and price with the Jags coming cheaper on both sites.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 8.69 DK - 8.69
The Washington Football Team is down to, at best, their third-string quarterback now that Taylor Heinecke and Kyle Allen are out because of Covid protocols. That’s going to put Philly in such a great spot. The Washington offense was only ranked 20th in offensive DVOA in the best of times and now are operating with a really bad quarterback situation. Garret Gilbert could get the start, though that isn’t totally clear at this point. The Eagles don’t generate many sacks as a defense, but that could change this week. They are now looking like a really good value.
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