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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Wednesday 12/15/21
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Point Guard
Jalen Brunson FD - $6200 DK - $6700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.51 DK - 39.33
Luka Doncic has already been ruled out for this game and, once again, the sites didn’t factor that into Jalen Brunson’s price. With Luka off the court this season, Brunson has a 25.6% usage rate, the second-highest on the team in that scenario. He just takes over the bulk of the offense making this a very easy play. Sure, last game it was 25 minutes and the run got burned off, but that was in the blowout over the Hornets. He still got in 13 points and eight assists. Against the Lakers, who’ve struggled on defense this season, it seems like an easy play to roster him considering the workload he should get in a close game.
Jrue Holiday FD - $8000 DK - $7500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 39.86 DK - 42.92
Over the last couple of seasons, Jrue Holiday has a 29% usage rate when Giannis is off the court. He becomes one of the focal points of the offense when the Bucks are forced to go in a different direction. And that’s going to be the case on Wednesday against the Pacers. Plus, there’s a chance that Khris Middleton misses this one with the issues around his hyper-extended knee. This would all line up for Jrue to be a chalk play here on this slate considering the Bucks are coming in a bit compromised. I don't think we need to overthink this move all that much considering the circumstances.
Shooting Guard
Armoni Brooks FD - $4800 DK - $5500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.03 DK - 33.52
Eric Gordon’s been ruled out of this game along with Kevin Porter Jr. and the Rockets are probably already in a load of trouble. Brooks will get the start here at the wing though he’ll have some ball-handling responsibilities as well considering how thin the Rockets are in that department right now. He got hurt last game which cut into some of his run, but when given the opportunity, he’s been awesome at these prices this season. Prior to last game, over the previous three, he’d averaged 18 points, six rebounds, and three assists. That line plus some defensive stuff here and there is enough to warrant a cash play.
Darius Garland FD - $7500 DK - $7900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.68 DK - 43.37
Houston remains one of the best DFS draws there is this season and nothing about that is going to change tonight. They rank 24th in defensive efficiency and first in pace. We’ve said it before, but that’s the perfect intersection of fast and bad that we like to target on an almost nightly basis. Stacking a few Cavs here is going to make sense. Garland is having a breakout season, scoring 19 points a game while also dishing out a career-high 7.5 assists as well. This has come with Colin Sexton shelved and Garland has picked up the slack and more. The Cavs are just a good team at this point with the best point differential in the East. And Garland’s price just doesn’t reflect the matchup or his production, especially on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Garrison Mathews FD - $4700 DK - $4700
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 26.97 DK - 28.84
As mentioned with Brook, the Rockets are pretty thin in the backcourt for this game and Mathews could see a ton of minutes. It’s been hit or miss on his production this season but some of that is because he’s shared the court with higher volume players like Gordon. That won’t be the case in this game and double-digit shot attempts should be in the cards. He is facing one of the league’s best defenses, but we are making the play here on the amount of run he should get and the projected uptick in usage. In previous games with this kind scenario, Mathews hit around 39 minutes and scored 23 and 19 points respectively. He’s very scoring dependent and doesn’t really do anything in the way of assists. But he has been able to get on the glass at times, even grabbing eight rebounds last game.
Josh Hart FD - $5900 DK - $6300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.49 DK - 35.04
Hart is locked into the starting lineup with Zion Williamson out for the foreseeable future and he is making the most of the opportunity. When the Pelicans can stay close in games, Hart is playing a ton of minutes and is able to produce across the stat line. Over the last three games, he is averaging 13 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists playing 34 minutes in regulation. This production is excellent for where his salary sits on both sites. And he’s unlikely to kill you considering he scores his fantasy points in a number of different ways. Plus, he draws a great matchup against the tanking Thunder.
Power Forward/ Center
Jarrett Allen FD - $8500 DK - $8300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 47.44 DK - 48.48
Evan Mobley FD - $7300 DK - $6900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.64 DK - 41.72
You just have to love the matchup here. We said it with Darius Garland earlier and it still applies with the big men. Stacking the two bigs in this matchup probably makes sense considering they aren’t like to face much of any resistance on either end of the court. Houston just allows opponents to rack up tons of stats with the way they play. On average, rebounds are up 3% while opponents’ steals and blocked are 35% (!) and 21% more than league average on the season. The pace of their play and the style just lead to opponents being great DFS options. This comes into play for Allen and Mobley who are both having great seasons in their own right. Allen is averaging a double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds with more than a block a game.
Meanwhile, Mobley is pushing towards the Rookie of the Year nod so far with 14 points, eight rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.7 blocks+assists per game. It’s just such a balanced line and his price on both sites isn’t close to where it should be in this matchup. The DraftKings salary is particularly advantageous, but really he should be rostered in cash on both. I just love this pairing because the floor is so darn high considering the matchup.
Bobby Portis FD - $7700 DK - $7100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 39.19 DK - 41.78
With Giannis already ruled out of this one, and Middleton questionable, I think we can pretty confidently roll Portis here in an ideal situation for him. Portis sees huge jumps across the board in production with Giannis off the court this season, which makes sense considering how much the latter piles on during games. Portis’s usage rate goes from 23% to 26% with the rebounds and assists really ticking up as well. His price is on the higher side because he’s been actually productive over the course of the season, even with Giannis in the mix. But this is such a good opportunity that I think we can still run with him here because of the situation.
Strongly consider Kristaps Porzingis (FD 8700 DK 8600) who lit it up last game with Luka Doncic out of the lineup.
