DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 12/14/21

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Point Guard

Chris Paul FD - $8400 DK - $8400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 43.8 DK - 46.14

I’m a little worried about Paul coming on the second half of the back-to-back here, but he did see reduced minutes on Monday because the Suns were getting blown out by the Clippers. For the most part, Paul has seen an uptick in usage with Devin Booker out of the lineup and has taken 14+ shots in two of the last three games. And the assists remain elite with an average of 10 per game over the last five. This is an elite matchup against a Portland team that ranks as the fourth-worst defense in basketball this season. I don’t think Paul has been priced up enough for the matchup and the opportunity.

Fred VanVleet FD - $8500 DK - $8600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.27 DK - 45.94

The Raptors come in as 9-point road underdogs against Brooklyn on Thursday. But with such a small slate we are going to have to face blowout scenarios and be okay with it. VanVleet’s minutes are among the safest in the league right now, consistently running in the high 30’s when the game stays and close. And even though they are on the second half of the back-to-back, the Raptors blew out the Kings and didn’t have a ton of run on Monday. VanVleet is getting up about 16 shots per game and has shot the ball well from three, hitting about 39% from beyond the arc. The minutes at this price point are what make him a solid cash option and we hope Toronto can stay in this one.

Shooting Guard

Alec Burks FD - $5600 DK - $6300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.62 DK - 33.55

Derrick Rose FD - $6200 DK - $5000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.93 DK - 31.3

Burks is off the injury list for this game in one that the Knicks might be playing shorthanded. They are already without RJ Barrett for the game and Quentin Grimes, who started last game, is out due to Covid protocols. That is leaving the team a bit thin at the wing and Burks should be back in the starting lineup with a lot of minutes. From a fantasy perspective, he makes a fantastic option. Sure, the last game was a disaster, shooting 0-7 in his 37 minutes. But that’s a total outlier and for the most part, he’s been getting up double-digit shots in the starting lineup and will run major minutes in a close game. The previous six games for Burks saw him averaging 18 points, four rebounds, and more than two steals. We will take that production at these price points.

Meanwhile, Rose has been in and out of the starting lineup over the last couple of games, but the minutes have remained high enough to warrant a play even off the bench. Since returning from injury at the beginning of December, Rose is averaging close to 29 minutes per game scoring more than 13 points per game and handing out nearly six assists. That’s even with some minutes ramp up in there and the floor is pretty high for him especially at his DraftKings price. It’s much closer on FanDuel, but on a short slate, I think you can consider it. Stacking a bit of the Knicks’ backcourt is a fine play here and mostly what you are trying to fade is the Warriors completely blowing them out.

Small Forward

Gary Trent Jr. FD - $6100 DK - $5900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.83 DK - 33.98

I don’t mind stacking a few Raptors here mostly because Nick Nurse and company are fine running them some of the most minutes in the NBA when the game is close. Trent has played 35+ minutes in four of the last seven games and never under 30 in that stretch. He’s very scoring dependent which can make him a risky play because if the shot isn’t falling, you can get dusted off this price pretty fast. But he’s still finding volume in the offense, taking 16 or more shots in five of his last eight games. The inconsistency is also what keeps the price a bit in check, making him a mid-tier value on a short slate.

Andrew Wiggins FD - $5900 DK - $6200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.75 DK - 33.23

Wiggins has been playing more minutes of late for the Warriors which is a good sign for his overall production at these prices. Of course, he’s not the first option in the Golden State offense, but that’s fine considering where he’s priced, especially on FanDuel. He’s played 33+ in each of the last three games, getting up 14+ shots in two of them. He really needs to put the ball in the basket to realize full value here, but he’s also been able to get on the boards enough, around five per game, that there is just enough of a floor here.

Power Forward/ Center

Pascal Siakam FD - $7800 DK - $8300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.94 DK - 44.14

Chris Boucher FD - $5100 DK - $4800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.03 DK - 29.86

This might seem like an abundance of Raptors considering the potential blowout risk, but they all come in at values on their current minutes' expectation. The starters run about as many minutes in the league and there is such a high floor with that kind of scenario. Over his last five games, Siakam is averaging 20 points, nine rebounds, and four assists even while he shoots just around 30% from three. He should see heavy run in this one against the Nets with his production a key to the Raptors staying in the game.

With Khem Birch and Precious Achiuwa both out with injury, Boucher has entered the starting lineup at the five for the Raptors. The minutes have fluctuated over the last three games which has been a bit frustrating, but for the most part, the fantasy production has been fine at these prices. He’s averaging 14 points, seven rebounds, and more than a block per game in that stretch which gets the job done at these middle-tier salaries. I’m fine going this direction again with the understanding that if the Nets pull away in the game you are in trouble. But Boucher can fill it up on a per-minute basis for sure.

LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $5900 DK - $6400
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 33.2 DK - 34.1

Aldridge has been in the starting lineup for the Nets, though it’s worth it to mention that sharing the court with Kevin Durant and James Harden has led to a dip in his fantasy production. When he was coming off the bench with Patty Mills, the two were helping to lead the second unit. But with the starters, the usage and rebounding is quite at the same levels for LMA. That being said, he should see minutes in the high-20s especially against a Raptors team that trends a bit bigger across the backline with their wings.

If DeAndre Ayton is out again then JaVale McGee (FD 5400 DK 4200) is a lock on both sites. The issue is that with the timing of the game we might not know prior to the earlier lock.

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