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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 12/13
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Point Guard
Jalen Brunson FD - $6300 DK - $5800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.23 DK - 34.85
Luka Doncic is set to miss a second straight game with an ankle injury and that once again gives a huge boost to a few of the other Mavericks. We have a decent sample size to go off in this situation as Doncic has now missed five games this season and in that time Brunson has seen a 4% usage increase while averaging 38 fantasy points per game. He and the Mavs now get an elite matchup against the Hornets who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and run the third-fastest pace in the league. Fire up Brunson in all formats.
Fred VanVleet FD - $8300 DK - $9000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.85 DK - 45.43
The Raptors are in a great spot on Monday at home as 4.5 point favorites in a game with the second-highest total(220.5) on the slate. That total comes from the defense, or lack thereof, especially on the Sacramento side as they rank 26th in defensive efficiency and adding to that run a Top 5 pace. Despite some poor shooting in the short term(under 40% in five of his last 10), he is still provided value across the board averaging 19.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game over his last 10. I would like the price to be about $500 lower but given the terrific matchup, I will still have exposure in all formats on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Cody Martin FD - $5200 DK - $6500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 33.46
I am definitely higher on the Mavericks side of this potential close, high-scoring game but with LaMelo Ball and Ish Smith still on the C-19 list, we cannot ignore Cody Martin. He has filled nicely playing 40 minutes per game and contributing across the board with an average of 16 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 35 fantasy points per game. The price has corrected on DraftKings finally where he isn't a must-play but on FanDuel, he is still scraping the low $5K range which makes him a near lock from a PTS/$ standpoint tonight.
Eric Gordon FD - $5300 DK - $5300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 22.41 DK - 25.2
After missing just one game with groin tightness, Eric Gordon is expected back in the lineup and after seeing his price hit a season-high in his last game, it is trending back down. There is risk here of a blowout as the Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league but haveing Gordon back is a boost and the matchup also stands out as the Hawks rank 25th in defensive efficiency. And even with four games in his last 10 tallying under 20 fantasy points, he is still averaging 25 fantasy points per game which also shows you his upside potential. I won't be forcing Gordon in cash games but love the PTS/$ upside if the Rockets can keep it close.
Also Consider: Monte Morris(DEN) if Will Barton was to sit out a second straight game
Small Forward
Scottie Barnes FD - $8000 DK - $7600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.79 DK - 39.69
The Raptors drafted Barnes 4th overall and even with that, I don't think they expected him to step in and play as big of role as he has through 24 games this season. He comes into tonight playing 36 minutes on average and is coming off one of his best games of the season. He has also been helped in the short term with the absence of OG Anunoby and in those 11 games, he has averaged 13.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 35 fantasy points per game. Now give him a plus matchup against the Kings(26th in def eff, 5th in pace) and he makes a great play in all formats tonight.
Dillon Brooks FD - $6100 DK - $6200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.16 DK - 38.94
Look. I get it. Brooks can be very frustrating to roster at times but he is just checking too many boxes to ignore so once again our system has a crush on him. He is very shooting dependant and is shooting just 39% over the last 10 games but the volume is most definitely there as he is averaging 16 shots per game in that time and a 30% usage rate on the season. This game has a lower total so the ownership is likely coming down from what we have seen in the short term so I will have exposure in all formats vs. the 76ers 17th ranked defense.
Power Forward/Center
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $8500 DK - $8000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 45.25 DK - 46.82
I have a feeling the optimizer is going to have a lot of exposure to this game and specifically the Mavericks with no Doncic and my second-favorite piece for them is Porzingis. While he doesn't see the same overall usage bump as Brunson, he climbs to an elite 1.3 fantasy point per minute rate without Doncic averaging just over 41 fantasy points per game. Not only do the Hornets rank dead last in defensive efficiency and third in pace, they also sit near the bottom in rebounding(25th) which is another boost to Porzingis. He is one of the top overall PTS/$ plays on this slate.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11400 DK - $12000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 59.7 DK - 64.52
If you are just looking to lock in a safe 50-60 fantasy points with the upside of 60-80, Jokic is the top projected play on the slate and it's not really close. I mean, he comes into tonight with a double-double in nine straight, a triple-double in three of his last four, and is averaging 28 points, 13 rebounds, 8.5 assists and over 60 fantasy points per game over his last 10. Washington has also fallen off some in terms of defense(19th in def eff) and are also below-average in rebounding. All things considered, Jokic is our top overall play on this slate.
