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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 12/9
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Guards
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8400 DK - $8800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.37 DK - 45.26
Very small three-game slate tonight but it isn't short of some great DFS plays and that starts at point guard with Donovan Mitchell. The price is getting near its peak but definitely warranted as he has been very consistent in the short team. Over the last five games, Mitchell has averaged 31.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists which, for fantasy purposes, is an average of 47.4 DK/45.1 FD points per game. Looking at the season numbers, he also has the second-highest usage rate(33.2) of any player on this slate and gets a plus matchup as the 76ers rank 18th in defensive efficiency and are playing on back to back nights. Fire up Mitchell in all formats.
Monte Morris FD - $5600 DK - $5400
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.38 DK - 28.9
For value at the point guard position, I will turn to Monte Morris who has also been a very consistent fantasy producer in the short term. Over his last six games, he has averaged 14.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, and five assists per game which is good for 28 DK/27.4 FD points per game. The Spurs defense is also a bit of a mystery as they do rank 10th in defensive efficiency but rank 19th or worse in fantasy points when looking at a split of guards, forwards, and centers. Either way, this is a big pace-up matchup in a projected close game for the Nuggets which puts Morris in a great spot to hit and exceed his fantasy value once again tonight. I will have exposure in all formats.
Derrick White FD - $7900 DK - $6300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 31.07
This one is more for DraftKings as the price on FanDuel has reached a season-high and is nearly $8K! The good news for White here is that he has seen a nearly 5% increase in usage over the last eight games where he is putting up over 15 shots a game and averaging 17.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. The matchup is average-at-best as the Nuggets are 15th in defensive efficiency and 28th in pace but on this small slate I will take the usage in a projected close game. if playing FanDuel, White is GPP only here but on DraftKings, I will have exposure in all formats.
Also Consider: White's teammate DeJounte Murray(SA) as a top payup who is averaging 50 fantasy points per game over his last 10
Forwards/Center
Anthony Davis FD - $10000 DK - $10000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 51.52 DK - 51.5
Both Davis and Lebron are probable going into tonight's matchup which is incredible in itself, to be honest. I personally lean Davis here for a couple of reasons starting with the price on DraftKings which has reached its lowest point since early November when it hovered just below the $10K mark. It then comes down to consistency as AD has averaged 38 minutes, 24 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists over his last nine games with four double-doubles. He now faces a Memphis team that is playing on a back-to-back and ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency and 12th in pace. All things considered, Davis is my top PTS/$ pay-up tonight on both sites.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $7000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.73 DK - 37.34
I told myself last night I would not write up Dillon Brooks today who the system absolutely loves but continues to underwhelm. Instead, I will turn to his teammate Jaren Jackson who has seen the biggest bump since Ja Morant went down with injury in late November. Over those six games, JJJ has seen a 3% boost in usage up to 27.3% while averaging 20.3 points and 5.5 rebounds leading to an average of 35 fantasy points per game which is over 1.2 fantasy points per minute. The price on DraftKings is still below its season-high from a week ago but his best value comes on FanDuel where he comes in the low $6K range.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11100 DK - $11800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 61.12 DK - 65.71
The price will definitely make you think twice, especially on a smaller slate with fewer value options but Jokic is an elite play every time he steps on the court. He is coming off back-to-back triple doubles and over the last 10 games is averaging 27 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 8,7 assists per game good for a fantasy point average over 60! He now gets an pace-up matchup against the Spurs who run the 5th fastest pace in the league and rank 19th in rebounding. If enough value pops up as we approach lineup lock, fire up Jokic in all formats.
Steven Adams FD - $5700 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.17 DK - 27.09
While you wouldn't think a point guard in Morant being out would benefit a center, that is exactly what has happened with Steven Adams. In the six games without Morant, he has seen over a 3% usage increase and has gone from .93 to 1.11 fantasy points per minute. In those six games, he has averaged just 6.2 points per game but added 8.4 rebounds and 2.5 assists which has given him an average of over 23 fantasy points per game. That isn't taking down any GPP's, by any means, but it is a solid floor for cash games should you need the value to help fit other top plays.
