Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) points down field during an NFL football game against the Washington Football Team, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one-week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL and NBA - for the same low price. Get started now!
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 26.35 DK - 26.96
After stumbling some to start the season, the Chiefs have turned things around of late, winning their last five in a row against a more difficult part of their schedule overall. Mahomes has been up and down from a fantasy perspective, throwing for fewer than 300 yards in all but one of the last six games, with no touchdowns in the last two. The price hasn’t dipped as much as we would like on the back of these weaker performances, but I also don’t think we need to read all that much into them either. This is a decent enough matchup against the Raiders who are about league average against the pass (worse against the run). Fire up Mahomes here with the idea that the touchdowns come back around.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 22.59 DK - 23.27
We are in an interesting spot with Hill here. On the one hand, there’s his hand. He’s dealing with a finger injury that’s definitely affecting his ability to throw. So on that front, not good. On the other hand, he’s coming so, so cheap on DraftKings and has shown the ability to make up for a lot on the ground in the run game. Last week, he ran 11 times for 101 yards. Sure, he completed less than 50% of his passes, but also managed a couple of TDs through the air. On DK, in the mid-$5K range I think you just have to play him against the Jets and hope he racks up a ton of yards with his legs.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 20.56 DK - 22.24
With Melvin Gordon out of the lineup, it was all Javonte Williams for the Broncos. Sure, they lost to the Chiefs, but for our purposes, we don’t care all that much about the outcome. Williams played 78% of the snaps, and got 32 total looks with 23 carries and nine targets. That’s elite (elite!) usage and this week gets a much better matchup. Denver is -8 home favorites against the 29th defense in the league in the Lions. This is a smash spot again for Williams if Gordon is out and if that’s the case then I think he’s total chalk on this slate considering the price didn’t move nearly enough.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 14.87 DK - 16.65
This recommendation is contingent on JD McKissic not playing so we will have to keep an eye on that situation. McKissic was in the league’s concussion protocol all of last week and his status isn’t quite known at the time of this writing. With JD out of the lineup in Week 13, Gibson predictably picked up the bulk of the running back work for the Football Team, playing in 82% of the snaps and got tons of usage. The 23 carries and nine targets meant they went his way in just about 50% of the team’s offensive plays. That’s incredible and he could be in line for more work this week. It’s a bad matchup against the Cowboys for sure, but the DraftKings price just didn’t move nearly enough considering how much usage he got in the passing game.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 13.19 DK - 14.36
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 11.41 DK - 11.89
What to do with the Titans’ running backs? They are both in good spots as -9 home favorites against the Jaguars who rank 27th in the league against in defensive DVOA (though, admittedly better against the run). We know Tennessee is firmly committed to the run through thick and thin meaning there might be enough touches for both of these guys. In a loss to the Patriots in Week 12, the Titans ran the ball 31 times with their RBs and racked up 240 yards on the ground. Again, they lost that game by 23 points. From a cash game perspective, I think it’s reasonable to run Foreman on FanDuel and Hilliard on DraftKings considering the PPR scoring and how Tennessee uses each. It’s weird to recommend situations like this as “safe” but the Titans are the one team fully committed to this style of football.
Keep an eye on the Elijah Mitchell situation here. He entered the concussion protocol on Monday and is questionable for this week. Plus, Jeff Wilson is banged up as well. If both were to sit then we could see a huge helping of JaMychal Hasty in this game. That being said, if Mitchell were to get cleared and played, he'd also be a cash option.
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 18.85 DK - 22.84
Cooper Kupp and DaVante Adams (and Diontae Johnson, wow) aren’t on this slate meaning the only WRs averaging double-digit targets on the season we get are Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen. Hill had a rough one in Week 13, finishing with just two catches for 22 yards against the Broncos. Look for a bounce-back game here against the Raiders. There’s a chance the Chiefs could rely more on the run game now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is back and they are healthier in the backfield. Plus, the Raiders are worse against the run than the pass. But considering we are likely to get out of running back in the middle tier, there is savings to be had among this wide receiver group.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 15.55 DK - 19.2
As mentioned, Allen is the other major target guy on this slate and I think we can roster both him and Hill in cash games. Only two RBs are $9K or above on FanDuel and most of the value there is in the middle tier. Allen will face a Giants’ team ranked 28th against the pass this season in a game the Chargers most definitely want to win. Allen is third in the league in targets this season behind only Kupp and Hill with the difference between them in fantasy scoring being Allen only has four touchdowns. But he is fourth in the league in red-zone targets meaning he is definitely being used down and close. That would appear to be just bad luck on finding pay dirt and, if anything, is keeping his price down a bit. Note: Allen entered Covid protocols but there is some hope he will be cleared before the game on Sunday.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 12.9 DK - 16.25
Since the Raiders lost Henry Ruggs in late October, Renfrow has seen an uptick in target share. He’s had nine or more targets in four of those five games and has topped 100 yards through the air in each of the last two. In a game that should see Las Vegas playing catchup throughout, or at least trying to keep pace, we could see another high-volume game in this one. The Chiefs have been a very good defense this season, ranking in the top 10 in DVOA, but I think the situation just plays too well for Renfrow and how they use him in the offense. I’m much more into the DraftKings price here.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 14.77 DK - 17.91
With Deebo Samuel out last game, the 49ers turned all of their passing attention to Kittle who saw 12 targets good for a 40% target share. He finished with a whopping nine catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns. It was the second-best tight end performance of the season behind only Mark Andrews in Week 5. The 49ers could, for sure, head this direction again facing off against the Bengals. On FanDuel, the price on Kittle is just too low for what he could see in terms of usage and he was a chalkier option on the main slate last week.
After Kittle, I think you are going to want to go cheap at the position. On DraftKings, there are a few different options that are in the punt/ risky territory though help to save a lot of salary. Some of the options are John Bates who will be filling in for Logan Thomas who was put on IR. I don’t mind going back to Foster Moreau for the Raiders even though it was a rough go of it with him filling in for Darren Waller last week. Jared Cook is also coming very cheap.
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 8.05 DK - 8.05
The Baltimore Ravens have allowed the most sacks in the league this season. It makes sense to some degree considering how much Lamar Jackson has the ball in the offense. But the number is still a bit eye-popping. Meanwhile, Cleveland is in the top-10 in defensive sacks this season. This is a good spot to play them in a game that has an incredibly low total at 42. They are coming outside the top pricing tier on both sites meaning we aren’t paying through the nose for a good matchup.
Opponent LV
Proj Points FD - 7.53 DK - 7.53
As mentioned above, the Chiefs rank 6th overall in defensive DVOA this season, ninth against the pass, and fifth against the run. It’s an impressive feat for a team that’s mostly made its bones on offense in the past. They don’t get after the quarterback a ton, but they haven’t let up a ton of points either. They are mostly able to control the ball and their offense has also put the D in advantageous situations at times. I don’t mind grabbing them here against a below-average Las Vegas offense.
Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel cash game NFL plays.
DraftKings and FanDuel Week 11 cash game NFL plays
Week 10 NFL cash game picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
