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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 12/6
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Point Guard
Kyle Lowry FD - $6700 DK - $7500
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 38.09 DK - 41.7
The fantasy performances have been inconsistent recently but a lot of that can be contributed to blowouts which have limited his minutes in three of his last five games. The good news with that is the price has come back down in the mid $7K range on DraftKings and remained under $7K on FanDuel. More good news as Lowry has been consistent averaging over 36 fantasy points per game when getting a full run of minutes and without Bam and possibly Butler again, I see that narrative playing out once again which puts him n play in all formats.
Ish Smith FD - $4500 DK - $3400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.78 DK - 26.57
With LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier placed in health and safety protocols on the weekend, Ish Smith stepped into a starting role and lit it up Sunday shooting 57% on 14 shots putting up North of 35 fantasy points on both sites. Both those players are out again on Monday and mysteriously Ish's price dropped $500 on DraftKings putting him back near min price where he is easily our top PTS/$ play at any position. Don't over think this one. Plug in Ish in all formats.
Also Consider: Tyler Herro(MIA) if Jimmy Butler is out again or Chris Paul(PHO) with Devin Booker out again tonight
Shooting Guard
Seth Curry FD - $5600 DK - $5300
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 26.69 DK - 29.35
Curry is very reliant on his shooting for fantasy scoring and the good/great news there is that he is on an absolute heater shooting 60% on 40 shots over his last three games. While that is an unsustainable rate for sure, the opportunity continues to be there with no Ben Simmons. Either way, we are looking for about 25 fantasy points from Curry to hit cash value tonight and he has done that in seven of his last 10 games while averaging 26.5 fantasy points per game. The matchup also helps as the Hornets 28th in defensive efficiency and run the league's third-fastest pace. Curry is one of my top PTS/$ guards in all formats tonight.
Darius Garland FD - $7400 DK - $7900
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 37.97 DK - 42.73
This isn't the first time we have mentioned Garland's breakout season and the system continues to be on board even with a rising price. I mean the numbers are pretty insane as he is averaging just over 19 shots, 23 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 7.3 assists over the last 10 games and has put up 50+ fantasy points in two straight and three of his last five games. And if you are worried about the matchup against the Bucks, those last two explosive performances came against two tougher defenses in Utah(10th) and Washington(14th). All things considered, Garland is once again in play for me in all formats.
Small Forward
Dillon Brooks FD - $5900 DK - $6400
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.31 DK - 37.57
This game is full of injuries on both sides and for the Grizzlies, they are without their best player in JA Morant for the foreseeable future. This presents opportunities for others to step up and Brooks is one we have been keeping our eye and despite two poor performances back to back, he stands out once again tonight. The good news is that one of those came in an insane, record-breaking blowout and in his first two games without Morant, had put up 35 shots and 30+ fantasy points. That is what I am looking for here and at his current pricing, which is also falling, he is a nice PTS/$ value on both sites.
Luguentz Dort FD - $6000 DK - $5400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.74 DK - 32.48
Like the Grizzlies, the Thunder are without a key player tonight in SGA and Dort has been one of the biggest benefactors with a 3.5% usage boost in his absence. He underwhelmed in his last game but so did the entire team in the most epic blowout loss in history so let's ignore that for now. Morant missed two games back-to-back in last November, as well, with Dort putting up 35 shots playing 30+ minutes in both. There is definitely some risk here with a price that is trending up but there is also a ton of upside. Lock and load in all formats.
Power Forward/Center
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7100 DK - $7200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 40.5 DK - 41.62
Back to the Grizzlies who are without Morant for the foreseeable future and will also be without Kyle Anderson for a third straight game. Without Morant, Jackson has actually seen the biggest boost across the board with a 5% usage increase which has in turn pushed him to an elite 1.35 DK/1.38 FD points per minute rate. He now gets the benefit of facing a tough Miami defense that will be without Bam Adebayo and possibly Jimmy Butler. The game should stay close giving JJJ a full run of minutes and opportunity to hit and exceed fantasy value. He is in play in all formats tonight.
Jerami Grant FD - $7700 DK - $7600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 36.44 DK - 37.83
Grant isn't likely a chalk play here tonight with JJJ coming cheaper but that makes me like him even more, especially for GPP formats. There are times he doesn't get a full run of minutes as the Pistons are pretty terrible but the good news tonight is he faces another terrible team in the Thunder who are coming off an embarrassing record-breaking loss. Looking at Grant's last 10 games, he has averaged around 36 fantasy points per game despite three very underwhelming performances while scoring 38 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight. All things considered, I will have exposure in all formats.
Joel Embiid FD - $10400 DK - $11000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 52.91 DK - 55.84
Embiid's late October/early November struggles appear to be behind him as he comes into tonight's game scorching hot with five straight double-double(25.8 pts/14/6 reb per game) performances. He is one of the best players in the league and now gets a near elite matchup as the Hornets rank 28th in defensive efficiency, 24th in rebounding, and run the third-fastest pace in the league. With or without Harris tonight, fire up Embiid as a top payup option in all formats.
