Miami Heat guard Kyle Lowry looks for an open teammate during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Denver Nuggets, Monday, Nov. 29, 2021, in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 36.89 DK - 40.96
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both out of this game for the Heat meaning we are going to get some more high usage out to the remaining guys, specifically the guards. Lowry took 18 shots on Friday in the win over the Pacers on the road and finished with 26 points and nine assists. This might be a slightly tougher matchup on paper against the Bucks though they do take a step back defensively without Giannis in the lineup. Lowry has a 21% usage rate this season with Butler and Bam off the court, which is up from the 18% rate he has over the course of the season. The DraftKings price is a bit too steep, but the FanDuel salary is way too low.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.2 DK - 27.6
The Blazers are without Damian Lillard and now they’ve lost Anfernee Simons to injury as well. The backcourt is a bit of a mess at the point guard position and it looks like Dennis Smith will get the start here on Saturday. He hasn’t played a ton this season, but when he has the per minutes fantasy scoring is solid, something that’s been the case for him throughout his career. Per 30 minutes this season Smith is averaging nine points, seven assists, and more than three rebounds which is more than enough production considering his current price points. And because Portland is so shorthanded right now there could be a lot of minutes for him in this matchup against the Celtics.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 43.45 DK - 47.04
McCollum is the clear beneficiary of not having Lillard, and now Simons on the court. Without Lillard specifically, CJ has a 31% usage rate on the season, easily the highest number on the season. McCollum is already averaging almost 19 shots per game on the season and two games ago took 26 when the game stayed close against the Pistons. Things turned into a blowout against the Spurs and I think there is some risk of that against the Celtics considering Portland is running low on options here. But I don’t think the price, especially on FanDuel, has come up enough to represent just what the Blazers will need from him on offense.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 40.77 DK - 43.74
Giannis Antetokounmpo was a surprise scratch last game just a few minutes before tip-off. And it looks like he is going to miss this game as well. Whenever that is the case for the Bucks, it opens up quite a bit of opportunity for the rest of the lineup, Holiday especially. Jrue sees about a 10% usage bump with Giannis off the court over the last year-plus. His 28.7% usage rate is second on the team after Middleton in this scenario. And the assist rate bumps up about 10% as well. Giannis just commands so much time and attention on the ball for the Bucks that when he isn’t there, there is a lot to go around. Holiday was a popular play last time around and that could be the case again here.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 42.22 DK - 46.06
Like we said with Jrue Holiday, when Giannis isn’t in the mix, a ton of usage is left to spread around for the rest of the Bucks’ team. Middleton leads the squad with a 32% usage rate in this scenario and he will likely be a popular play on this slate because of it. He struggled in the last game, at least for the first half before finishing with 22 points and eight rebounds. The 8-20 shooting was a bit rough against the Raptors, but here he'll face a defensively-compromised Heat team that is without their two best defenders in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 39.66 DK - 44.91
Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat have moved Herro into the starting lineup and are running him major minutes. That should be the case again on Saturday against the Bucks. Over the last four games, Herro is averaging 35 minutes and putting up almost 20 shots. The shooting has been a bit streaky, but that’s to be expected for Herro. He’s still put up 21.5 points per game in that stretch with contributions in rebounds and assists as well. He is clearly a play on both sites and if the game stays close he could push towards 40 minutes even on the back-to-back. The guards and small forward position on both sites is full of middle-tier value which could make for balanced lineups on this slate.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 36.12 DK - 39.12
Portis was a chalk play on Thursday when Giannis was ruled out, and for good reason. He’s another guy who stands to see a significant bump in both the usage and rebounding rate with the Greek Freak off the court. It worked out moderately well last game with Portis putting up a double-double, 15 points, and 11 assists. He should in line for similar production here on Saturday against a thinner Miami team. The price hasn’t come up enough on FanDuel where he will likely, once again, see a lot of ownership on this slate.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.74 DK - 29.62
If you are looking for some savings on this slate, power forward and center is probably the way to go. Kleber slid into the starting lineup for the Mavericks on Friday when they were without Kristaps Porzingis and that should be the case again here on Saturday if Staps sits again (he’s currently questionable). Kleber played 31 minutes in the loss to the Pelicans and put up 13 points and nine rebounds. I think the minutes should be in line with that for this game as long as he’s starting. We will have to keep an eye on the Porzingins situation here to have clarity around Kleber’s value. But considering the later start of this slate, I think we will know everything prior to lock.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 29.72 DK - 32.17
With Bam Adebayo out of the lineup, Dedmon has moved into the starting center role for the Heat. And he’s coming entirely too cheap on DraftKings. Though he only played 23 minutes on Friday, he still managed seven points and six rebounds. That production is on the low end for the run considering he had double-doubled the game before in 31 minutes. The truth is likely somewhere in between which would still make him a pretty safe cash play on DK at these prices.
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