San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (25) runs upfield during an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
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Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 23.83 DK - 24.63
I get that he was a trash pile last week, but the same can be said of a number of different play-callers. Hurts didn’t get into the endzone through the air or on the ground. But this week, Hurts gets the gift of facing the Jets, the league’s worst defense overall in terms of DVOA. And they are equal opportunity bad, 30th against the pass and 31st against the run. From this perspective, there shouldn’t be much in the way of resistance when it comes to Hurts piling up points. I get that he’s been inefficient through the air, especially over the last couple of weeks, and that’s a problem especially with the passing touchdowns. But the good news is that Hurts has 55 or more rushing yards in each of the last six weeks. That makes up for a decent amount of the passing problems and I think on that end, this will be his easiest matchup in a while.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 20.72 DK - 21.44
If you are looking to save a little on DraftKings on this slate then Carr might be the way to go. Washington is a bottle defense, ranking 30th in DVOA against the pass, but 7th against the run. Carr is coming cheaper on DK all things considered though some of that is, for sure, on the performance. He’s got less than a 2:1 TD: INT rate on the season (17:9) even with the completion percentage still sitting around 67%. Being down Waller doesn’t help, but he should face little resistance from the Washington secondary. I think he’s a fine option for cash. Going the other way, I think Taylor Heinecke could be a solid DraftKings play in this matchup.
There are a lot of viable running backs this week. In some ways, I almost wish we could play six RBs instead of some of the WRs out there. Let’s wade through some of the early value on this slate at the position.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 19.07 DK - 20.77
He came back last game with some question marks about how he’d be able to deal with the hand injury over a heavy workload. That was pretty much laid to rest. He played 70% of the 49ers’ snaps and touched the ball 33 times (27 carries, six targets) and turned it into 168 total yards and a touchdown. And what helps Mitchell, even more, this week is that San Fran has lost Deebo Samuel for the short term. Samuel had been getting a lot of usage in the ground game which, in theory, will go even more Mitchell’s way in this one. Seattle is much better against the run than the pass, but I just don’t think Mitchell’s price, in any way, reflects the projected volume.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 18.35 DK - 20.99
We love to get running backs, especially ones projected as workhorses, in bigger spread games. The Bucs go into Atlanta as -11 favorites which is as good a start as any. We’ve been down the frustrating path with Fournette at times, but he is coming off a week in which he played 81% off the snaps. He was a bell-cow as well with 17 carries and eight targets. Fournette’s 62 receiving targets are fourth among running backs on the season and it sure looks like he is the plan on the ground as well.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 17.33 DK - 19.16
While the Rams have struggled a bit on the offensive end over the last few weeks, they did get on the board a bit more last time around against Green Bay. That being said, they were playing catchup almost the whole time. That shouldn’t be the case in this game with the Rams coming in as -12.5 home favorites against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has the 30th-ranked defense on the season though admittedly, they are better against the run than the pass. Henderson is coming off playing 81% of the snaps last week and touching the ball on 40% of them (16 carries, four targets). The Rams should lean on him here and his price has come down a bit because of the game scripts the team has played with over the last month.
There are many other running backs to consider here. Of course, there’s Alexander Mattison who is going to get the bulk of the carries for the Vikings with Dalvin Cook out. In the two games that Cook has missed this season, Mattison had nearly identical games with averages of 32 touches and 162 total yards. The only concern here is that the sites priced him up on the Cook news.
Joe Mixon is another one. He’s carried the ball 28+ times in each of the last two weeks, totaling 288 yards on the ground and now faces off against the league’s worst run defense in the Chargers.
And then there is James Conner who has seen a ton of work without Chase Edmonds around and now should see a massive boost on the offensive end with Kyler Murray back. He’s squaring off against the Bears in a game in which the Cardinals are favored by eight on the road.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 21.85 DK - 26.67
The most targets in the league against the worst pass defense? That sounds like just the matchup we are looking for here. Kupp’s 126 targets lead the league, as do his 92 receptions which are good for a 73% conversion rate. We’ve seen Stafford and company lean his way time and time again this season and that isn’t likely to change in this one against the lowly Jaguars. Sure, he’s expensive and this is a week where there a lot of good running backs. But wide receiver is a bit on the weaker side so paying for safety at the position could make a lot of sense. I think you can also consider Odell Beckham Jr who saw solid target share in his first full game with the Rams.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 14.92 DK - 18.16
After being buried to start the season, Aiyuk seems to be back in Kyle Shanahan’s good graces and could now be in line for an uptick in work. With Deebo Samuel out, Aiyuk should pick up more looks in the passing game. Over the last two weeks, with Samuel moving into more of a running back role, Aiyuk has 13 targets for a total of 176 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers could put it on the Seahawks here and I think Aiyuk’s price is too low for a possible bump in usage with the loss of their WR1.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 13.77 DK - 17.34
Renfrow has eight or more targets in seven of his 11 games this season though amazingly hasn’t hit double-digits yet. That could change this week with Darren Waller on the shelf and the Raiders down a weapon in the passing game. On the season, he had 82 targets and has been very consistent with 13 or more DraftKings points in nine games. He is priced solidly in the middle tier and should see at least a slight boost in looks this time around. And he gets to face off against the 30th-ranked pass defense in Washington.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 14.22 DK - 17.1
It’s been a great return from injury for Gronkowski who has now seen 18 targets in the last two weeks. He’s totaled them up for 194 yards through the air. There could be more of the same here against a very weak Atlanta defense. My only concern with running Gronk at these prices is if Antonio Brown returns to the receiving corps. That would just give Brady another, possibly high-volume weapon. We will have to keep an ear out for this news over the course of the week.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 8.64 DK - 10.47
Like we said with Renfrow, it looks Darren Waller is going to miss this one and maybe even the next couple of weeks. Moreau is in line to take the tight end targets in the passing game. He played 17 snaps in Week 12 (36%) and had two targets and a touchdown. If he draws the start, and he should then I think we can easily roll him out as a punt play on both sites. The DraftKings price is especially low and takes a lot of the risk out of the proposition. It’s a bit closer on FanDuel.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 8.67 DK - 8.67
The news about Daniel Jones missing this game came out after the prices came out for both sites meaning we are getting value on the Dolphins here. The Giants will start Mike Glennon in an offense that already ranked 28th overall on the season. They could really struggle here, putting the Dolphins in an amazing spot. And Miami has started to figure some stuff out on the defensive end as well, allowing 17 or fewer points in each of the last four weeks. I suspect they are the chalk DST on this slate because of the Giants’ situation.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 7.37 DK - 7.37
There are a bunch of expensive defenses that are in great spots this week so I think you can consider the Rams against Jacksonville or the Buccaneers against Atlanta. But if you are looking to save a little, the 49ers lining up against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks seems pretty good. The Seahawks have put up 0, 15, and 13 points respectively in Wilson’s three games back from injury. It’s been a total mess. They’ve been terrible without a ton of hope for getting better.
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