Chicago Bulls guard Lonzo Ball (2) against the Golden State Warriors during an NBA basketball game in San Francisco, Friday, Nov. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
I'd be lying to you if I said I was excited about this slate. After a fantastic weekend with a ton of games, we're down to just five games on this Sunday card. That would be ok, but we have just three games making up the night slate. That means the pickings are slim, and it becomes even more complicated with so many players on the injury report. That could lead to a ton of value, though, and it'll be interesting to see how things play out. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36.09 DK - 36.45
Lonzo Ball has gotten a lot of crap ever since he was drafted, and I never really understood why. It's probably because of his dad, but this dude can straight ball. He's actually coming off his worst performance of the season on Friday but scoring 22 DraftKings points is nothing to be concerned with. That brought his season average to 32.1 DK points per game, which is a fantastic total from a sub-$7K player. He was also in one of the best stretches of his career before that, generating a 37-point average across his previous five fixtures. That's why our projections have him at 36 fantasy points, making him a great bet against an 18th-ranked Knicks defense.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.93 DK - 31.65
It looks like Kemba Walker will sit here in the second half of a back-to-back set, forcing Rose into a starting job. Whenever D-Rose gets a start for Tom Thibideau, you know Coach Thibs will run him into the ground! That might not be good for him physically, but it's a blessing for our DFS lineups. If you look at the five games Rose has played at least 25 minutes this season, he's scored at least 28 DraftKings points in all of them en route to a 38-point average. That's a truly absurd average from someone this cheap, and it's no surprise when you see his 24 DK points per game in fewer than 23 minutes a night for the season. You better believe he'll be motivated against the team who he made his name with too.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 44.31 DK - 44.67
It's pretty crazy how good this guy has been this season. Many people thought that DeRozan and Zach LaVine couldn't co-exist in Chicago, but they've been one of the best duos in the NBA. The more surprising one is Derozan, though, averaging 42 DraftKings points per game. That's easily the highest total of his career, and it's far from remarkable when you see his role. DD has played at least 34 minutes and taken at least 15 shots in all but one game this season. That shows just how massive his role is right now, and it's scary since his role has been rising in the absence of Nikola Vucevic. This happens to be a better matchup than you might expect, too, with the Knicks owning a 25th OPRK this season.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.64 DK - 39.47
As someone who lives in Denver, I can tell you that Will the Thrill has been our second-best player this season. His consistency is usually maddening for most Denver fans, but he's been a monster for most of the season. In fact, Barton has at least 35 DK points in six of his last seven games. The only time he didn't reach that total, he left because of a back issue! That shows just how good this guy is right now, stepping up in the absence of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Nikola Jokic is nicked up as well, and Barton would be a lock in every lineup if Jokic is missing, too. Not to mention, Barton dropped 39 DK points in this matchup earlier this season.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 33.62 DK - 34.3
Everyone is talking about how Stephen Curry is carrying this Warriors team to their ridiculous start, but we shouldn't overlook how good Wiggins has been. The former top-pick has been the butt of a lot of jokes throughout his career, but 28.3 DK points per game are nothing to kid about. A lot of that damage has come recently, with Andrew averaging over 32 fantasy points per game across his last six outings. That's right on par with our projections, and it makes him a good value around $7K. Toronto is a solid matchup, too, with the Raptors ranked 20th in defensive efficiency ratings. It also happens to be Wiggins's childhood team, which will make him more motivated.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.17 DK - 23.08
The fact that Fournier has found himself in this article is a good indicator of how gross this slate could be. In any case, this price tag has been plummeting, and it makes Evan an exciting GPP play. We're talking about a guy who was closer to $7K throughout most of his career, and it's just a matter of time before he jumps above $5,000. We say that because he's still averaging 23 DK points per game, dropping 31 fantasy points on Saturday afternoon. That sort of line is an absolute gem from someone this cheap, and Fournier could be asked to do more ball-handling here with Walker expected to sit.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 42.94 DK - 43.58
This Toronto team is a far cry from the title contender we saw in past years, but it's certainly no fault of Pascal's. The big man has actually become the primary playmaker for the Raptors, leading the team with a 31 percent usage rate. That's led to some brilliant fantasy lines, scoring at least 39 DK points in three of his last four games. The recent boost is no surprise when you look at the injury report, with Siakam swallowing up more minutes, rebounding, and usage in the absence of OG Anunoby. Sia always seems to play well when facing the Warriors too, averaging 30.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists against them last season.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.3 DK - 32.4
AG has struggled to find his footing in this offense, but recent results would indicate that the ground is starting to become more stable. Gordon has been taking on a lot in the absence of Murray and MPJ, averaging over 31 DK points per game across his last five outings. That's a stupendous total from a guy barely cracking $6K, and he could be one of the focal points of the offense if Jokic sits as well. The matchup against Phoenix looks tough on the surface, but AG dropped 28 DK points against them earlier this year. That becomes more obvious when you see that the Suns own a 28th OPRK against opposing PFs this season.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 38.06 DK - 39.11
Ayton has quietly developed into one of the best big men in the NBA, and it's hard to understand why he remains below $8K on both sites. DA has scored at least 34 DK points in seven of his last eight games, averaging 40 DraftKings points per game across his last six outings. That's right on par with our projections, and it's hard to overlook the fact that he's grabbing nearly 15 boards a game in that span. Denver's defense has been elite all season, but Ayton always feasts when he sees Nuggets. In fact, he's averaging 21 points and 12 rebounds in their eight career meetings, dropping over 50 fantasy points in three of those.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 21.82 DK - 21
Toronto has been trying to figure things out with this frontcourt, giving Birch two starts in the last two games. That led to some of his best production of the season, combining for 58 DK points in those two outings. That's really not far off of his season averages, providing 24 DK points per game across 22 minutes a night. Those numbers make it hard to understand why he remains so affordable, especially since he's been inserted into the starting lineup. Getting Birch in there makes lineup constriction so much easier, saving salary for studs like Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, and Zach LaVine.
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