Dallas Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson dribbles the ball in the second half of an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. The Mavericks won 107-104. (AP Photo/Matt Strasen)
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.8 DK - 44.63
Brunson is likely to be a popular play again on Friday and for good reason. The price didn’t move nearly enough for the opportunity he has with Luka Doncic out of the lineup. Sitting at sub-$7K on both sites makes this a pretty easy call all things considered. Over the last season-plus, when Doncic is off the court, Brunson has a 24% usage rate, the second-highest on the team, and the assist rate climbs as well. It makes sense considering how ball-dominant Luka is in the offense. Last game, with Doncic on the shelf, Brunson took 18 shots and nearly triple-doubled with 18 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. He could be in for a similar line in this game.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.92 DK - 36.72
This could be a slate that sees us playing a number of guys in the mid-tier. Jackson could be one of them, drawing a solid matchup against the Pelicans who ranks dead last in defensive efficiency this season. Their 112.4 rating is nearly three points lower than the next-closest team, Memphis. The Pels play a slower pace, but the defensive deficiencies more than make up for that. In a closer game, Jackson should be in line for minutes in the high-30s and he’s been taking around 17 shots per game in those scenarios.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 54.4 DK - 58.76
Like we said with Jackson, the Clippers get a great matchup against the Pelicans considering the latter’s failings on the defensive end. And that puts Paul George in a great spot. He’s been putting up crazy usage numbers in the short-term, going for 24+ shots in four of his last six games. The efficiency has mostly been there in that stretch and he can get on the glass as well with 9+ rebounds in three of his last four. The price is getting up there but PG is still a good DFS play in this range when the opponent is right.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.71 DK - 29.37
Caruso has joined the starting lineup after the Bulls lost Patrick Williams for the long haul and Nikola Vucevic in the short term. The lineup maneuvering will probably stick for Caruso who has been excellent in the role. From a fantasy perspective, though he isn’t a volume scorer, there is plenty to like about his game. In the last three, all running with the starting unit, Caruso is averaging 34.8 FanDuel points thanks to contributions in nearly every point along the stat line. Though the price seems a little funky for a guy who doesn’t pour the ball into the basket, the minutes and overall skill are enough to warrant a play here.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 36.81 DK - 39.15
Talen Horton-Tucker has been excellent since returning from the early-season injury and immediately slotted into the Lakers’ starting lineup. In his three games, THT is averaging 23 points and seven rebounds, shooting 40% from three on close to seven attempts per game and taking a whopping 17 shots. That’s no easy feat when sharing the court with Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, and Carmelo Anthony. But he’s doing it and playing a lot of minutes as well, running 39 and 37 respectively in the last two. Though the price is up, I think this is a pretty easy play in cash against the Celtics.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.44 DK - 34.88
Barton returned from a one-game injury absence and didn’t miss any beats in the game against the 76ers on Thursday. He played 34 minutes and dropped 19 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. With Michael Porter Jr. out of the lineup for the Nuggets, there is more usage to go around on the wings and Barton has been primed to pick some of that up. Chicago plays a top-10 pace on the season and this game has a solid 211.5 total with the Nuggets as four-point favorites.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 51.59 DK - 54.59
Porzingis didn’t see quite the ownership I was expecting on Wednesday, with the number coming in a bit low on FanDuel. That could be the case again with that site getting a little more aggressive with the pricing. On DraftKings, it appears pretty easy with the number still sitting below $8K. With Doncic off the court, Porzingis leads the team with a 29% usage rate. The rebounds tick up as well. Against this same Phoenix team on Wednesday he played 32 minutes and put in 21 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. Look for a similar line in this game with the chance the minutes tick up a bit as well.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 44.36 DK - 46.9
Things didn’t work out for Siakam at all on Thursday evening and he really struggled against the Utah Jazz. A popular play because of the loss of O.G. Anunoby, Siakam managed just four points on 2-14 shooting from the field in his 31 minutes. This was a disaster for a guy who saw heavy cash game ownership because of what should have been better opportunity with O.G. out of the mix. But this matchup against the Kings is a much better one and I think we can roll Siakam with relative ease. The Kings have been an above-average defense on the season, but they play the fourth-fastest pace.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.52 DK - 41.52
Ayton is priced way too low on DraftKings where he is still well under $7K. That is just a mistake now that he is back in the starting lineup and at full health. He played 36 minutes against these Mavs on Wednesday and finished with 19 points and 13 rebounds. If the game stays close, he could be in for a similar line considering Dallas doesn’t have much in the way of rim protection. I think he will be a popular DK play.
Consider Isaiah Stewart (FD 5000 DK 5000) if you think the Pistons can keep it close with the Warriors.
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