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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 11/18
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Point Guard
Ja Morant FD - $10000 DK - $10000
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 45.74 DK - 49.58
His minutes were cut short in a blowout against Houston on Monday and he still put up 40+ fantasy points continuing his tremendous start to the season. He is averaging over two more shots per game(31.7% usage) while shooting 4% better and he has also added two more rebounds per game. The best news here is that this game is expected to stay close(MEM +1) while there are about four other potential blowouts on this slate. His price continues to rise but is more than worth it putting up 50+ fantasy points in over half his games. He is my top point guard and one of my top overall plays on this slate.
Monte Morris FD - $5100 DK - $4700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.93 DK - 27.11
The Nuggets are going to be short-handed again on Thursday which opens some value, especially at the guard position. Enter Monte Morris who has been money over the last two games without Barton dropping 15 of 25 shots from the field(60%) while adding 12 assists, nine rebounds, and four steals. The best part is that his price has barely gone up and he gets a plus matchup against a 76ers team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. Morris is my top PTS/$ value on this slate.
Shooting Guard
Darius Garland FD - $6000 DK - $6800
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.86 DK - 36.2
Speaking of teams that are short-handed, the Cavs have been decimated with injuries but a frustrating situation to target value with inconsistent minutes and production. One player we don't have to worry about in that regard is Garland who has played 35+ minutes in nine straight games while putting up a fantasy average over 5x PTS/$ in that time. There is a chance this game blows out but someone needs to play and if choosing just one, I trust Garland more than any other Cavs players.
Anthony Edwards FD - $8200 DK - $7700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 39.76 DK - 43.53
This one checks a lot of boxes starting with the price which is finally trending back down after it peaked earlier in November. Next up is the matchup as this game has the highest total(222.5) on the slate and is one of the two games with a close spread(MIN -2) pushing it to the top of my list. In his second year after being chosen 1st overall, Edwards has been very solid putting up over 20 shots per game(29% usage) and has seen big improvements when it comes to the secondary stats(4.9 rebounds, 6.7 assists per game). All things considered, Edwards is one of my top overall plays on this slate.
Small Forward
Paul George FD - $10100 DK - $11000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 54.76 DK - 58.85
Only one player(Jokic) in our system has a higher projection and with the lower price, Paul George actually ranks out better in terms of PTS/$ value on both sites. That is just the start as the matchup is also much better here for PG13 as the Clip are just one point favorites in the second-highest total on this slate facing a Memphis team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace. For George, he is having a terrific start to the season in Kawhi's absence and is running the second-highest usage(35%) in the league behind Doncic. He is easily on my radar as a top payup in all formats tonight.
Scottie Barnes FD - $6800 DK - $6700
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 32.06 DK - 34.26
Gary Trent Jr. FD - $7000 DK - $5900
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 27.34 DK - 28.39
If you have been paying attention to our projections this season you know that the system loves OG but the inconsistency has been frustrating, to say the least. Well, he is questionable coming into this one and that could open up some value throughout the lineup replacing about 18 shots a game. The biggest beneficiary would be improving rookie Scottie Barnes who has dropped double-digit points in all but one game and has tallied 7+ rebounds in 11 of 13 games. Stay tuned for lineups as Barnes would nearly be a lock for me in cash if OG sits.
For Trent, it comes down to price differential as he is actually more expensive than Barnes on FanDuel but $800 cheaper on DraftKings. They play almost identical minutes and while Trent doesn't provide as much secondary fantasy scoring, he adds a ton of upside with his three-point shooting. He will be in my player pool on DK regardless of OG's status.
Power Forward/Center
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6900 DK - $6300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.16 DK - 33.56
Blowouts have limited Jackson to an average of just 24 minutes over the last three games but that shouldn't be an issue tonight in the projected closest game(MEM +1) on the slate which also has the second-highest total. When getting that full allotment of minutes, he is averaging 15+ shots per game and just under 5x when looking at his season averages and today's prices. There is also a ton of room of growth here as he is currently shooting under 40% for the season(47% career avg). This has helped keep the price down making this a bit of a buy low at the moment. I will have exposure in all formats.
Ed Davis FD - $3500 DK - $3600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 2.08 DK - 5.01
There is a ton of expensive plays who pop on this smaller slate and to pair multiple together, we are going to need some serious value plays. One that pops off the page immediately is Ed Davis who surprised many playing 23 minutes last game after totaling just over six minutes total on the season. It comes down to the Cavs being extremely short-handed down low with Mobley out multiple weeks, Allen questionable after missing last game, Markkanen still out with Covid, and Kevin Love just one game removed from missing multiple weeks. Davis should likely see another 20-25 minutes tonight and that should be more than enough to hit and exceed value at these prices tags.
Also Consider: Keldon Johnson(SA) who has provided consistent PTS/$ value
