Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs with the ball in the second half of an NFL wild card playoff football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Jan. 6, 2019, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 26.36 DK - 27.11
Jackson struggled in a Week 10 loss to the Dolphins, completing 60% of his 43 passes for only 238 yards. And he didn’t run as much as we’ve become used to, getting only 39 yards on the ground. It was a bad game all around for the Ravens and Jackson had a rough one. But I think we can go back to him in cash in Week 11 against the Bears. Chicago ranks 22nd in the league in defensive DVOA are well below average defending both the run and the pass. Jackson is ranked 4th overall in DraftKings points per game this season and still maintains such a high floor because of the gains he makes on the ground. I’m not letting a bad performance last week influence the decision-making this time around.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 17.81 DK - 18.7
Newton is taking first-team reps this week with the thought that he will be the starter in Week 11 for the Panthers. It’s quite the turn of events for Newton who was out of the league two weeks ago. He came in for some snaps last week, 12 total, threw four passes, and also rushed the ball three times for 14 yards and a touchdown. The price is so cheap on DraftKings that I think you can strongly consider him for cash especially if the RPO is going to be operating for Carolina this week. This is a price play if you think there is enough left in the tank for Newton.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 18.5 DK - 20.86
Dillon will be massive chalk on this slate for both sites. He is set to take over lead-back duties for the Packers now that they have lost Aaron Jones and is in a position to put up some huge stats in this game. Even in the backup role, Dillon has been an effective runner over the last couple of seasons, averaging more than 4.6 yards per carry and also working into the passing game as well. Minnesota’s funnel defense is significantly worse against the run, ranking 28th in DVOA against the run. This is just setting up to be a smash spot for Dillon who wasn’t fully processed corrected for this new opportunity.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 18.07 DK - 19.85
James Conner was bad last week with the Cardinals falling way behind early against the Carolina Panthers. He did manage his way into the end zone but only carried the ball 10 times for 39 yards while also seeing four targets in the passing game. But with Chase Edmonds out, Conner was still on the field for 82% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps. That should be the case again this week against the Seahawks who are the 21st-ranked defense. The price didn’t move from last week, but the opportunity is still there for Conner.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 16.2 DK - 18.96
The Chiefs' offense got back on track last week, putting up 41 points against the Raiders and looking a lot like a Super Bowl contender again. Williams played 54% of the snaps and continues to see a lot of usage in the offense when he is on the field. In his 45 snaps, he touched the ball 20 times with 11 carries and nine targets. It added up to 144 total yards and a touchdown through the air. His price is just too low for this kind of usage and the game against Dallas, of course, has the highest implied total on the slate at 55.5. It could be a track meet and Williams should be on the field a lot again with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still out.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 21.42 DK - 25.74
Adams ranks third in targets on the season despite playing one fewer game than the two guys ahead of him and should be in line for a lot of work on Sunday against the Vikings. Both he and Tyreek Hill represent great spend-up options at the position for this slate and there is a case, because of the running back value, to just knuckle up and play them both. Neither draw great matchups against the Vikings and Cowboys respectively, but with Cooper Kupp off this week, they remain the elite target options at the position. Spending here makes a ton of sense.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 18.05 DK - 21.23
Samuel only saw five targets in Week 10 but that was because the 49ers only threw the ball 19 total times. He and Kittle combined for 63% of the team’s target share in an easy-is win over the Rams. That could be the case again against Jacksonville who comes in as the league’s fifth-worst defense. Having Kittle back in the mix should cut into Samuel’s usage here, but I still think he’s an elite option. His 23.3 DraftKings points per game rank second among all wide receivers on the season behind only Cooper Kupp.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 13.37 DK - 16.9
With Henry Ruggs off the team, the last two weeks have seen Renfrow see more targets with 18 total in Weeks 9 and 10. His price hasn’t changed all that much on FanDuel where he’s still a value option considering how much Derek Carr is looking his way. The Bengals rank just 21st against the pass this season and the 50 over/under is the second-highest of the main slate of games. And there is some touchdown equity with his 12 red-zone targets ranking in the top-10 at the position.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 13.35 DK - 16.47
DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t played the last two weeks and it’s shaping up that he will sit this one out again as well. In that span, Kirk has 14 total targets from Colt McCoy. It is looking like Kyler Murray will be back in action for Week 11 which will, obviously, represent a massive quarterback upgrade for Arizona. If Hopkins remains out and Kyler is back then I think we could see 8+ targets in this game against the Seahawks.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 14.67 DK - 17.98
Waller’s 71 targets are the second-most among tight ends and 22nd overall despite only playing eight games this season. He remains an elite option at the position and actually isn’t totally priced that way. Look, he isn’t going to see the 19 targets like in the first week of the season, but he’s seen seven or more looks in six of the other seven games. That’s giving us a high enough floor at a relatively weaker position. He only has two touchdowns on the season despite his 12 red-zone targets ranking 3rd overall among the tight end group.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 8.84 DK - 10.88
Over the last three weeks, Dan Arnold leads all tight ends in targets with 25. That’s just fantastic usage for the position and the DraftKings price isn’t where it should be, especially on FanDuel. While the Jaguars aren’t very good and this matchup is a bad one, getting a decent floor on Arnold in the lower price tier isn’t likely to kill you in cash games.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 8.84 DK - 8.84
The Browns are the 7th-most expensive defense on DraftKings this week and draw the best matchup around. While Cleveland isn’t a great defense, they face a Lions’ team ranked second-to-last in offensive DVOA and will probably be playing with their backup quarterback this week. That would mean Tim Boyle getting the start. The Lions have allowed the seventh-most opponent sacks this season and that number could be set to increase this week.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 7.06 DK - 7.06
I know I wrote up Cam Newton as a possible value play. But this is still Cam Newton we are talking about. The Panthers are running on fumes at the position and there is some chance it doesn’t work out all that well. Washington is coming off a strong showing against Tampa Bay in Week 10, though they are missing Chase Young now. I still like their chances against Carolina at these prices.
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