Cameron Smith, of Australia, watches his tee shot on the eighth tee during the first round of the PGA Championship golf tournament on the Ocean Course Thursday, May 20, 2021, in Kiawah Island, S.C. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
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Welcome back golf fans. The final regular event of the 2021 calendar year takes the PGA Tour to Sea Island, Georgia for the RSM Classic. Much like the other fall events, we get a weaker field this week with just one player(Louis Oosthuizen) ranked inside the Top 10(#9) and just 13 inside the Top of the World Golf Rankings.
We also get back to a multi-course rotation this week at Sea Island Resort with golfers playing one round at each of the Seaside and Plantation courses on Thursday and Friday. Those golfers who make the cut(Top 65 & ties) will then play the final two rounds on the Seaside course. This is where most of my focus will be when setting up my stats model this week. The Seaside Course is a Par 70 with just two Par 5's so I will be heavy on Par 4 scoring and mid-iron approaches with nine of the 11 falling between 400 and 450 yards. You are also going to need a ton of birdies from your golfers as the winning score has been in the high teens consistently year after year.
With that said, take a peak at the courses and previous winners below and then let's get into the picks.
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Cameron Smith
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)
FanDuel ($11,800)
Smith is making his first trip to the RSM Classic but comes in with good form with a T9 at the CJ Cup and T15 at the Houston Open to open the season. The excellent play goes all the back to July, as well, with Smith making the cut in eight straight with three Top 10's and no finish worse than T34. He has been tremendous with the irons(gained strokes in 4 of last 5 events) lately and is one of the best putters on tour. All things considered, I will have exposure in all formats.
Adam Scott
World Golf Ranking (#40)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($10,300)
I love looking for leverage in DFS PGA and in the top tier it's Adam Scott for me at the RSM Classic. A week after burning people at the Houston Open(T54) he gets a price drop in an arguably weaker field and is currently sitting last in tags in this tier of pricing. Sign me up! He has been very consistent and the track record is long as he has made 23 of his last 25 cuts and has flashed the upside lately with Top 5's in two of his last five events. He also ranks Top 10(in this field) in SG: Total when looking at courses under 7,200 yards(via FNGC). He is a player I will have in my player pool in all formats and will also be throwing down an outright at 40-1.
Chris Kirk
World Golf Ranking (#79)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($8,000)
FanDuel ($9,800)
Kirk is coming off two less than stellar performances(T64, T48) but has now made the cut in all four fall events and has made seven straight cuts dating back to the Wyndham. He now returns to Sea Island Resort where he won the RSM Classic back in 2014 and has Top 20 finishes in five of his last eight trips. The price is trending back up on both sites but given the weaker field, his consistency, and course history, I will have exposure in all formats.
Adam Long
World Golf Ranking (#134)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,300)
While he ranks outside the Top 100 in ball striking on my sheet, it is going to be hard to ignore how well he has been playing lately. He made my Top 10 in my player pool last week and didn't disappoint with a T11 and now comes into this week with three straight Top 25 finishes. A couple of places he does stand out statistically is in the Par 4 range we are keying in on this week(400-450) as he ranks 9th in this field and is also one of the best putters in the field. All things considered, he is once again high in my player pool in all formats.
Alex Smalley
World Golf Ranking (#318)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,600)
Smalley is going a little bit overlooked in this year's rookie class so far as he has yet to tally a Top 10 while seven others have at least one. He has been consistent, however, making four straight cuts and Top 15 finishes in each of his last two events. While the stats are based on a very small sample size, it is positive to see he ranks 15th around the green, 17th in putting on bermuda greens, 3rd in par 4 scoring, 8th in bogey avoidance, and 24th in birdie or better %. More than enough for me to have him as a top value paly this week.
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