Most eyes will be focused on the NFL today, but we're going to keep grinding profits in NBA. Sundays are actually one of the best days of the week, with more amateurs playing than usual. That has me excited to get things going here because I have an excellent read on this slate too. Injuries have opened up a ton of value, and that'll undoubtedly be a significant theme in this article. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 53.48 DK - 55.5
What If I told you that the best shooter of all time is on a heater? I think that'd make you want to use him, with Chef Curry cooking up the NBA right now. The former MVP is averaging 28.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 1.6 steals en route to 52 DraftKings points per game. That's truly absurd, and it's even scarier when you see that he has 189 combined fantasy points over the last three games. That equates to a ridiculous 63-point average, the highest total in the NBA in that span. Facing Charlotte is simply a bonus, with the Hornets ranked third in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency ratings. They also happen to be Curry's childhood team, and he seems to always play better against them.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 19.89 DK - 21.35
Simons still has a limited role in Portland, but he's shown flashes this season. The Dunk Contest participant is averaging 19.4 DK points per game across just 22 minutes a night. That alone makes him a solid value around $4K, but he should be looking at his most prominent role of the season here. Damian Lillard has already been ruled out with an adductor issue, and it'll force Simons into the starting point guard job. That means his minutes, shot attempts, usage, and fantasy points could double, making him the best value of the day. We also don't mind that Denver surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs, either.
Monte Morris is still below $5K on both sites and remains a good value at Denver's starting point guard.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.57 DK - 42.65
You probably could have seen this coming after the last write-up. While Simons will be the point guard on the depth chart, McCollum will be the one running this offense. With Dame off the floor this season, CJ leads the team with a 31 percent usage rate. He also averaged over 1.3 DK points per minute with Lillard off the floor last year, dropping numerous 40-spots in his absence. He's been close to that player this year anyway, averaging over 37 fantasy points per game. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$8K player, and McCollum should be in every DFS lineup out there. He's killed the Nuggets in the past, too, scoring at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last nine meetings with them.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.91 DK - 29.75
Allen was slow to get his NBA career going, but he's really found a home in Milwaukee. The former Blue Devil has started every game for the Bucks this year and has seen his role increase every time out. In fact, Grayson has gobbled up at least 25 DK points in five straight games, averaging 32 DK points across 32 minutes a night in that span. A lot of that has to do with Milwaukee's injury report, with Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez continuing to miss games. It's also possible that Giannis will be out after sitting on Friday, which would only add to Allen's value. Atlanta is an astounding matchup, too, allowing a 112 defensive rating, the third-worst mark in the NBA.
Mikal Bridges could pick up a handful of steals against a sloppy Houston team, and if he does that, he'd be a heck of a value around $5K.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 51.27 DK - 52.57
This does carry some risk since this is the second half of a back-to-back set, but PG13 is hard to avoid right now. This dude has taken over this offense in the absence of Kawhi Leonard (knee), ranked second in the NBA with a 34 percent usage rate. Luka Doncic is the only player with a higher usage, leading to George's best season of his career. In fact, PG13 is averaging 26.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 2.5 steals en route to 51 DraftKings points per outing. That's obviously one of the best totals in the NBA, and you better believe his usage will be sky-high against a formidable opponent like the Bulls. He just got rested in the fourth quarter of Saturday's blowout win, so resting likely won't occur here after all.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.66 DK - 35.25
Denver has been trying to figure things out with Michael Porter Jr (back), and Jamal Murray (knee) sidelined and what they've learned is that Barton is the second-best player on this team. That's evident in Will's averages, providing 16.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. That's a good indicator of how much he's being asked to do, playing the de facto point guard in Murray's absence. He's been doing a lot of that damage recently, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in four of his last five games. That'd be a stupendous total from a sub-$7K player, and he should be even hungrier against the team that traded him away. That's evident when you see that Will the Thrill has at least 26 DK points in five of his last six meetings with the Blazers en route to a 31-point average.
Norman Powell should flirt with 20 shots and 35 minutes with Lillard sidelined.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 37.69 DK - 37.31
Draymond seldom scores 20 raw points in any game, but this dude's stat-stuffing is uncanny. Green is averaging 7.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game. Those defensive numbers are actually a bit down, but it's still led to an impressive 32-point average. That's great news since he has some positive regression headed his way defensively, especially with Steve Kerr asking Green to shoot more this year as well. The best part of this play is the matchup, though. Charlotte's blistering pace makes them a perfect target for a stat-stuffer like Green, ranked dead-last in the NBA in points allowed.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.91 DK - 30.9
Gordon has had a hard time finding his footing with the Nuggets, but his most recent outing is hopefully a sign of things to come. The former Wildcat collected 23 points, four rebounds, four assists, and three blocks on Friday in his best performance with Denver. That led to a season-high 45 DK points and marked the third-straight game he's played at least 33 minutes and attempted at least 10 shots. That's the sort of role we're looking for from someone in this price range, and it makes AG one of the best GPP plays on the board. Portland is far from a scary matchup, too, ranked 10th in pace and 19th in total defense.
If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays, he's obviously a good pick if you have the salary.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 56.9 DK - 58.96
Not much needs to be said here with Jokic. This dude earned an MVP last season with his ridiculous stat line and hasn't lost a step at all this year. The big man is leading the NBA with 57.6 DraftKings points per game, dropping at least 42 fantasy points in every game this season. That floor is truly absurd, with only a handful of players on this slate having a higher average than that! That makes him worth it no matter the price, particularly on a slate with such limited center options available. Not to mention, Joker scored at least 56 fantasy points in five of his final six games against the Trail Blazers last year.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 27.55
This price tag is disrespectful. Plumlee has been a consummate professional throughout his career and an underrated fantasy asset. That's plain and clear in his average, providing 24 fantasy points per game. That might not sound too special, but it's really all you can ask for from a sub-$5K player. What adds to his value here is the fact that PJ Washington is out, leaving more minutes for Mason. That has allowed Plumlee to provide at least 23 DK points in four of his last five games. That's why our projections have him sitting around 28 fantasy points, and we certainly don't mind that he'll be matched up with Kevon Looney and an undersized Green at Golden State's center position.
Jusuf Nurkic has been frustrating with his minutes, but he should be asked to do more with Lillard out of the lineup.
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