Los Angeles Clippers' Paul George (13) drives against Oklahoma City Thunder's Terrance Ferguson (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Nov. 18, 2019, in Los Angeles. The Clippers won 90-88. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
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Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.35 DK - 36.09
Bradley Beal is going to sit this game out and that will open up some opportunity for the Wizards on the offensive side of the ball. With Beal on the court this season, Dinwiddie has just under a 20% usage rate. But with Beal off the court, that number shoots to over 31%, the highest on the team among guys who get significant run. The concern with Dinwiddie here is just the minutes with the Wizards clearly not wanting to overtax him early in the season. But that’s built into his price some on both sites and he makes for an excellent play squaring up against the defensively inefficient Magic.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 30.71 DK - 33.67
Over the last three games, with Jaylen Brown out of the lineup, Schroder has helped pick up some of the Celtics’ scoring load. He’s taken 15 or more shots in each and capped it off with a huge night on Friday, taking 27 shots and erupting for 38 points in the overtime win against the depleted Milwaukee Bucks. The minutes have been pretty robust as well and in close games, Schroder should be looking at 35+. Cleveland isn’t an ideal matchup because they play slow, are a top-10 defense, and have a couple of rim protectors that could make it hard for Schroder to get to the basket. But his opportunity in this offense isn’t quite reflected in the price.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 52.08 DK - 56.17
The Clippers come in with the highest implied total on the slate at 114 because they get one of the better matchups around. The Timberwolves are a league-average defense playing at a top-10 pace on the season which makes them a squad to target on Saturday. George is still playing a ton of minutes to start the season, averaging more than 37 over his last six games. That doesn’t include any overtime games and is one of the higher numbers you will see at this point in the regular season. The rebounding had dropped off some, but he’s still getting a ton of usage in the offense, taking 20+ shots in five of the last six. That should be the case once again for PG in this matchup.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 33.16 DK - 35.05
With Collin Sexton out, Darius Garland continues to lead the offensive charge for the Cavaliers. He once again led the team in shots on Friday with 14 and put in 21 points in 35 minutes. At these prices, you will take the performance all day long and he actually saw a price decrease going into this matchup on Saturday. Boston is also coming on the back-to-back in this game and it isn’t an ideal matchup considering they’ve been a top-10 defense on the season. But I like Garland here and still don’t think his price reflects the overall opportunity with Sexton injured.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.43 DK - 35.73
Kuzma is another beneficiary of Bradley Beal sitting this one out and after Dinwiddie. Kuzma has the second-highest usage rate on the team with Beal off the court. He should see a ton of shots in this game against the Magic who rank 25th on defense this season. He’s fairly priced on both sites and could see shot attempts in the high-teens with Beal out of the mix. The rebounding is there at times for Kuzma, though he’s pretty scoring dependent in order to hit fantasy value. That shouldn’t be all that big of a problem in this game.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.8 DK - 33.71
The Clippers have wanted to keep Batum’s minutes right in the 30 range though we did see that increase last game against the Heat when he played 37 in the win. That’s a bit of a wing-heavy team so it made sense. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly the same, but outside of Towns, they don’t have many ways to punish a team like the Clippers for going small. And if that’s the case then we should see plenty of opportunity once again for Batum. He only took four shots last game which is concerning but had been averaging double-digit looks over the previous five in fewer minutes. We’ll take it as a blip and I think we can run him out there in cash games on this slate.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 50.31 DK - 54.08
With Jaylen Brown out the Celtics really need everything in more from Tatum, especially on the offensive side of things. Over the last three games, with Brown out, Tatum is playing more than 37 minutes in regulation and averaging nearly 23 shots per game in that stretch. That’s unreal usage and it’s set to continue with the Celtics shorthanded on the offensive end. Again, I don’t love the matchup here, but Tatum simply isn’t priced correctly on FanDuel for the opportunity he has now in the offense.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 43.82 DK - 47.53
Harris came back last game to a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and immediately took over parts of their offense. He took the second-most shots on the team with 18 and finished with 19 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds. The scoring was on the low end compared to the usage considering he shot just 1-6 from three. The Pacers are a bottom-third defense on the season and Harris is in line to play a ton of minutes again in this matchup. He isn’t priced correctly on FanDuel at all, though on DraftKings it’s a bit of a tougher sell.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.04 DK - 36.8
The Magic have been involved in some weird games of late, leading to some odd minutes from some of their starters. But this one doesn’t project as a blowout and he could be in line to play in the mid-30s here. In close games, that’s been the case for Carter this season with the Magic running a bigger backline of him and Bamba. Statistically, it’s worked out for Carter who is averaging career highs in scoring (13 ppg) and rebounding (10.2 per game). Some of that is the increased minutes, but he is also just more comfortable on the court now. Between the two, I really like the FanDuel price.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 34.9 DK - 34.56
Williams was a pretty chalk option on Friday night against the Bucks and he ended up paying off. It stands to reason, that even on the overtime back-to-back, he will see quality minutes here because the Cavs can trend pretty big. Plus, we might get a rest day for Al Horford because of the extended Friday run. Time Lord hasn’t turned into the fantasy force some expected with these minutes, but he’s been very good of late, averaging a double-double over the last three games with four blocks in that stretch as well. Again, this is a slow matchup but I like the price for Williams on both sites.
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